Before I hit on the overall point of this edition, I just wanted to update my readers on the unfortunate circumstances of my Week 15. I am missing out on the Championship game this year (playing for 3rd place, which is still worth some prize money). I got beat by the team in my league who, after our draft was completed on Summerslam Sunday, I felt had the best draft on a round by round basis, so I'm not too upset about the loss in that regard. Rivalries do exist in my 8 man league amongst friends, but the guy who I played this week has been a solid owner, a great trade partner, and a guy who trusts in the guys he drafts (he had the fewest roster moves in our league). I lost this week because of something I wrote about in my 3rd blog: TOO MANY PLAYERS FROM THE SAME TEAM. I wrote in that blog that you could do this to an extent, but if you had more than one member of the Giants or Packers this week, you are likely resigned to the same fate I am. I started Aaron Rodgers, who delivered 24.60 fantasy points in my league, a total that, for most any other QB, is acceptable. For Rodgers, it was his 3rd worst total of the season. I also had Mason Crosby (2 pts) and the Green Bay Defense (1 pt). If anyone out there foresaw zero sacks and zero turnovers from the Packer defense this week, you are a liar. My studs simply did not perform. My whole lineup was Rodgers, Nicks, AJ Green, Santana Moss, Ray Rice, Helu, Felix Jones, Owen Daniels, Crosby and GB's Defense. That roster of top notch studs got me an underwhelming 90.50 pts and a place in the 3rd place game. I'll probably go for 150 next week.
Now that I've vented, I wanted to extend a word of warning to those owners still involved in their league's championship round (or Semi-Finals if you're in a brutal league that includes Week 17). Don't ever EVER trust the default projections that your league host provides you. I use Yahoo to host my league and I always find their projections to be on the conservative side. ESPN has everyone projected to score a TD, so that's a bit insane. I don't know how CBS or NFL.com projects their scoring, but no matter how you look at it, you are a fool to trust projections. If you are plugging in a lineup based on the highest projected score, you are not using critical thinking and you are trusting a computer to generate a lineup for you based on what exactly? ESPN had Percy Harvin projected at 14.7 pts (87 Yards & 1 TD). Yahoo had him projected at 9.82 (I guess that's 37 Total Yards, 3 Passing Yards & 1 TD?). The average there is 12.26. You would most certainly have taken that in most cases from a WR2 like Harvin. He gave you 0.7 this week. No one projected that. Now, based on the last few weeks, no one was benching Harvin. He has been an absolute monster the last 4 weeks and was one of the hotter starts in all of Fantasy Football. No one had Drew Brees projected at 44.88 or Calvin Johnson at 33.4. Projections cannot possibly consider gameflow or situations. You are short changing yourself by trusting projected points as a top tool for lineup decisions.
Here's the point: When you trust projections to plug in your weekly lineup, you are throwing out matchups, intangibles, and all aspects of critical thinking. My plea since Blog 1 has been to use your own judgement when plugging in a lineup. If you like a guy who is projected at 5.5 and you don't play him because someone else was projected at 8.4, you are robbing yourself of the opportunity to play manager and outthink your opponent. We all like checking our rosters on Tuesday morning and seeing that we've got an RB projected at 20 pts, but when that guy fails to meet those lofty expectations, you're left disappointed. If you are someone who uses projections in factoring your lineup decisions, you are not wrong for doing so, but you don't know where these numbers come from and you shouldn't trust that the number is the letter of the law. Plug in your lineup based on your own hunches, how guys are playing, their matchup, and how you can possibly offset points from your opponent.
Good luck in Week 16! Many championships will be won this week and if you are in this spot, use the judgement you've used to get to this point. It will not fail you at this point.
Decision Making Tool for the Fantasy Sports Fanatic looking for Non-Obvious Solutions for Long Term Fantasy Sports Success.
Monday, December 19, 2011
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
The Top 10 Stories of Fantasy Football 2011
Fantasy Football is so popular, in my opinion, because it gives guys an excuse to watch every other game besides the 3 hours our hometown team is on. My wife has been super cool for years now about me watching football on Sundays from 12-6. If there's a good game on Sunday Night, I watch it in my bedroom and give up the 55" TV for a few hours (unless the Bears are on). Monday Nights are split between Monday Night Football (which has mostly sucked this year) and Monday Night Raw (which has been great TV since July). Every week in the NFL this year has brought some new storyline...some new player to watch, some new team to love or hate. I've seen the different opinions on what stories have been driving Fantasy Football this year, and this is my take on the Top 10 (Positive & Negative) Stories of the 2011 Fantasy Football Season.
10) Aaron Rodgers & the Green Bay Packers. This could be higher on a lot of lists, but anyone who didn't see this type of video game-like production coming from this team hasn't been watching Rodgers develop over the past 4 seasons. As an Aaron Rodgers owner (and an Aaron Rodgers keeper), I know that I'm plugging in 25-30 points into my QB position every week and all I have to do is come up with another 75-80 points from the rest of my lineup and I'll be competitive. Aaron Rodgers has changed the way owners will draft for years to come. In my league, he is the #1 Point Scorer by 58 points. Isn't the point to score the most points?
9) The Disappointing Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Freeman was supposed to be this year's Super Sleeper QB that you could grab in the later rounds. LeGarrette Blount has only scored over 10 points 5 times, hardly justifying his Top-16 RB standing. Mike Williams has as many TDs (3) as he has games under 4 fantasy points. The defense has not improved and no other useful fantasy commodities have developed. Tampa Bay was a great surprise last year and they now seem to be fading fast and showing ZERO emotion or signs of life.
8) Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. I personally pair these two together because these are the two names I went back and forth on all summer. In my most important league, playoff teams keep one player off their roster and the 2 teams that miss the playoffs draft 1st and 2nd. Foster, Mendenhall, Gore, and CJ2K were the kept RBs and I was prepared to have AP and Charles go 1-2 before I picked 3rd. The Ravens and Eagles each signed former Miami Dolphin RBs in their respective offseasons, clouding the backfield situations. I ended up settling on Rice because he was playing for a contract, McGahee AND McClain were out of his way, and I didn't feel that Ricky Williams was going to be in his way all that much. As it turns out, I couldn't have made a mistake either way. McCoy and Rice are 1-2, respectively, among RBs in standard scoring leagues. Rice has more yardage, McCoy has more TDs. They are each Top 3 in Rushing TDs and Top 4 in Receiving TDs (among RBs). In a down year for RBs as a whole, these two have been elite, matchup proof fantasy studs.
7) Peyton Hillis. What a disaster season for the Madden Cover Boy. The Curse seems to truly exist and I hope and pray Mr. Rodgers stays away from EA photographers this offseason. Hillis has had one useful fantasy game (Week 2 vs. Indy). He has missed 6 games with strep throat and hamstring injuries. He has been plagued by an unpretty contract situation and speculation that he isn't playing because he doesn't want to kill himself for Cleveland. I feel bad for the guy because 2010 was a revelation. Owners who were weary of Hillis stayed away with good cause this year and those who believed 2010 wasn't a fluke have been burned. Let's hope this guy gets healthy and gets his situation straight so he can be useful in 2012.
6) Chris Johnson. I'm pretty much done with this story in general, because it is all anyone could talk about for the first 9-10 weeks. CJ held out and came back to Tennessee not in football shape. CJ scored 1 TD and broke 100 Yards once in the first 9 games he played before he broke out against Carolina in Week 10. He seems to be finishing strong and has favorable playoff matchups, but given what this guy put his team through this offseason, anyone who vested a high draft pick in CJ2K is probably not playing at this point.
5) Fred Jackson. This one also hits close to home for me because I saved my high waiver priority all offseason waiting for one of my league mates to make a move that I could use the priority on. Another owner in my league needed to make space on his roster because he didn't draft a kicker or a defense. He was set at RB with Foster, McFadden and a mix of others and let FJax go. I swooped in on him after losing Rashad Jennings, sat him Week 1, plugged him in Week 2 and didn't take him out (except for his bye week) until he went on IR with the broken leg. At this moment, he is still the 7th ranked RB (2.1 pts behind AP in 5th and having just been passed by Lynch this week). It just goes to show how great of a season this guy was having. Over 16 games, he projected to just over 2200 Yds from Scrimmage and 9 TDs. Elite numbers.
4) The 2011 Rookie WRs. Very few rookies get the opportunity to make a big splash their first season. Peyton Manning in 1998. AP in 2007. The RB Class of 2008. Very rarely do we see rookie WRs make any kind of splash and that is exactly what AJ Green and Julio Jones have done this year. Non-1st round picks like Torrey Smith, Titus Young and Greg Little have made some impact on fantasy rosters. The big story, however, has been the development of Green and Jones. Green has either scored or amassed 100 yards in every game except 3. Jones has 4 100 yard games and 2 multi TD games despite missing 4 due to injury. AJ is currently the #12 WR in non-PPR leagues and Jones is Top 30 over early round picks like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Reggie Wayne, Mike Williams, and Miles Austin.
3) Victor Cruz. To say someone came out of nowhere in any context doesn't do justice to where Cruz has come from to get to where he is. Those who watch any preseason football remember Cruz as the practice squad guy who caught a couple TDs in a Monday Night game in 2009. He remained a practice squad guy for two seasons before injuries finally forced the Giants' hand in Week 3 of this season. Since getting that shot (3 catches - 110 yds 2 TDs vs. Philly), he hasn't looked back. Cruz is the #4 WR in non-PPR leagues. He is already on pace for over 1500 yds receiving and 9 TDs. He has allowed Eli Manning to make good on his "Elite" claim.
2) Gronkowski and Graham. Never before has the TE position been so in focus. Each of these players is already over 1000 yds receiving and is in the Top 20 OVERALL. The numbers are so staggering that Gronk has more fantasy points than any WR and Graham has more than all WRs but 2! The question is already out there for 2012: how high would you draft either of these two talents? I personally believe that it is OK to start looking this way in Round 3. Gronk is doing things no other TE has ever done before. We still have 3 games left in this season, but it is unreasonable to think he can possibly duplicate or surpass these current numbers next season. Graham is a freak and is in the perfect offense. If I was drafting in 2012 right now, I would take Graham over Gronk, just because I think Graham is more talented. That being said, these two are unreal stories this season. Gronk went undrafted in my important league and Graham went in the 15th round as a backup TE.
1) Cam Newton. I personally did not believe Cam could do what he has done and continues to do. Players like this have failed to succeed time and time again at the NFL level. He made his debut with back to back 400 yd passing games. His first bad statistical game was his first career win. He has run for 13 TDs to go with his 15 passing TDs. He made Steve Smith fantasy relevant again. He is a weekly Top 5 Must Start QB, virtually matchup proof because he can run, and has posted a TD in every game except one. He is the King of the Backdoor Cover, the probable Offensive Rookie of the Year, and a player who has done and said all the right things this season. He is only going to get better. Scary.
10) Aaron Rodgers & the Green Bay Packers. This could be higher on a lot of lists, but anyone who didn't see this type of video game-like production coming from this team hasn't been watching Rodgers develop over the past 4 seasons. As an Aaron Rodgers owner (and an Aaron Rodgers keeper), I know that I'm plugging in 25-30 points into my QB position every week and all I have to do is come up with another 75-80 points from the rest of my lineup and I'll be competitive. Aaron Rodgers has changed the way owners will draft for years to come. In my league, he is the #1 Point Scorer by 58 points. Isn't the point to score the most points?
9) The Disappointing Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Freeman was supposed to be this year's Super Sleeper QB that you could grab in the later rounds. LeGarrette Blount has only scored over 10 points 5 times, hardly justifying his Top-16 RB standing. Mike Williams has as many TDs (3) as he has games under 4 fantasy points. The defense has not improved and no other useful fantasy commodities have developed. Tampa Bay was a great surprise last year and they now seem to be fading fast and showing ZERO emotion or signs of life.
8) Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. I personally pair these two together because these are the two names I went back and forth on all summer. In my most important league, playoff teams keep one player off their roster and the 2 teams that miss the playoffs draft 1st and 2nd. Foster, Mendenhall, Gore, and CJ2K were the kept RBs and I was prepared to have AP and Charles go 1-2 before I picked 3rd. The Ravens and Eagles each signed former Miami Dolphin RBs in their respective offseasons, clouding the backfield situations. I ended up settling on Rice because he was playing for a contract, McGahee AND McClain were out of his way, and I didn't feel that Ricky Williams was going to be in his way all that much. As it turns out, I couldn't have made a mistake either way. McCoy and Rice are 1-2, respectively, among RBs in standard scoring leagues. Rice has more yardage, McCoy has more TDs. They are each Top 3 in Rushing TDs and Top 4 in Receiving TDs (among RBs). In a down year for RBs as a whole, these two have been elite, matchup proof fantasy studs.
7) Peyton Hillis. What a disaster season for the Madden Cover Boy. The Curse seems to truly exist and I hope and pray Mr. Rodgers stays away from EA photographers this offseason. Hillis has had one useful fantasy game (Week 2 vs. Indy). He has missed 6 games with strep throat and hamstring injuries. He has been plagued by an unpretty contract situation and speculation that he isn't playing because he doesn't want to kill himself for Cleveland. I feel bad for the guy because 2010 was a revelation. Owners who were weary of Hillis stayed away with good cause this year and those who believed 2010 wasn't a fluke have been burned. Let's hope this guy gets healthy and gets his situation straight so he can be useful in 2012.
6) Chris Johnson. I'm pretty much done with this story in general, because it is all anyone could talk about for the first 9-10 weeks. CJ held out and came back to Tennessee not in football shape. CJ scored 1 TD and broke 100 Yards once in the first 9 games he played before he broke out against Carolina in Week 10. He seems to be finishing strong and has favorable playoff matchups, but given what this guy put his team through this offseason, anyone who vested a high draft pick in CJ2K is probably not playing at this point.
5) Fred Jackson. This one also hits close to home for me because I saved my high waiver priority all offseason waiting for one of my league mates to make a move that I could use the priority on. Another owner in my league needed to make space on his roster because he didn't draft a kicker or a defense. He was set at RB with Foster, McFadden and a mix of others and let FJax go. I swooped in on him after losing Rashad Jennings, sat him Week 1, plugged him in Week 2 and didn't take him out (except for his bye week) until he went on IR with the broken leg. At this moment, he is still the 7th ranked RB (2.1 pts behind AP in 5th and having just been passed by Lynch this week). It just goes to show how great of a season this guy was having. Over 16 games, he projected to just over 2200 Yds from Scrimmage and 9 TDs. Elite numbers.
4) The 2011 Rookie WRs. Very few rookies get the opportunity to make a big splash their first season. Peyton Manning in 1998. AP in 2007. The RB Class of 2008. Very rarely do we see rookie WRs make any kind of splash and that is exactly what AJ Green and Julio Jones have done this year. Non-1st round picks like Torrey Smith, Titus Young and Greg Little have made some impact on fantasy rosters. The big story, however, has been the development of Green and Jones. Green has either scored or amassed 100 yards in every game except 3. Jones has 4 100 yard games and 2 multi TD games despite missing 4 due to injury. AJ is currently the #12 WR in non-PPR leagues and Jones is Top 30 over early round picks like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Reggie Wayne, Mike Williams, and Miles Austin.
3) Victor Cruz. To say someone came out of nowhere in any context doesn't do justice to where Cruz has come from to get to where he is. Those who watch any preseason football remember Cruz as the practice squad guy who caught a couple TDs in a Monday Night game in 2009. He remained a practice squad guy for two seasons before injuries finally forced the Giants' hand in Week 3 of this season. Since getting that shot (3 catches - 110 yds 2 TDs vs. Philly), he hasn't looked back. Cruz is the #4 WR in non-PPR leagues. He is already on pace for over 1500 yds receiving and 9 TDs. He has allowed Eli Manning to make good on his "Elite" claim.
2) Gronkowski and Graham. Never before has the TE position been so in focus. Each of these players is already over 1000 yds receiving and is in the Top 20 OVERALL. The numbers are so staggering that Gronk has more fantasy points than any WR and Graham has more than all WRs but 2! The question is already out there for 2012: how high would you draft either of these two talents? I personally believe that it is OK to start looking this way in Round 3. Gronk is doing things no other TE has ever done before. We still have 3 games left in this season, but it is unreasonable to think he can possibly duplicate or surpass these current numbers next season. Graham is a freak and is in the perfect offense. If I was drafting in 2012 right now, I would take Graham over Gronk, just because I think Graham is more talented. That being said, these two are unreal stories this season. Gronk went undrafted in my important league and Graham went in the 15th round as a backup TE.
1) Cam Newton. I personally did not believe Cam could do what he has done and continues to do. Players like this have failed to succeed time and time again at the NFL level. He made his debut with back to back 400 yd passing games. His first bad statistical game was his first career win. He has run for 13 TDs to go with his 15 passing TDs. He made Steve Smith fantasy relevant again. He is a weekly Top 5 Must Start QB, virtually matchup proof because he can run, and has posted a TD in every game except one. He is the King of the Backdoor Cover, the probable Offensive Rookie of the Year, and a player who has done and said all the right things this season. He is only going to get better. Scary.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
2011 Fantasy Football Playoff Preview
As I write this, Pittsburgh has defeated Cleveland 14-3. I didn't publish this a day sooner because I figured my analysis wasn't going to help anyone who had players in this game: Start Ben, Mendenhall, Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Pittsburgh's Defense. Bench Cleveland's entire roster. In fact, if you have a Cleveland Brown on your roster and you're still alive for the championship, kudos to you.
I will be presenting my playoff preview on a team by team basis with specific players to look out for and to avoid.
Arizona Cardinals
Player to Look Out For: Andre Roberts. He is starting to look like a nice safety valve for Kevin Kolb and we know Kolb hasn't been able to consistently hook up with Fitz. Roberts could potentially be a solid start in deeper formats as a Mid-Range WR3. You are more than likely starting Fitzgerald if you have him, but Roberts could outperform him during this 3 week span.
Player to Avoid: Kevin Kolb. I don't need to tell you this, but for those looking for a sneaky matchup play if teams start resting their starters (Aaron Rodgers owners!!), Kolb is not your guy. He will face three teams that are Top-7 vs QBs. There are better options.
Atlanta Falcons
Player to Look Out For: Michael Turner. While the last two weeks have been a bit of a let down, Turner has been solid all season and he has always come to play vs. the rest of the NFC South. I expect Turner to rush for 375-450 yds and 3-4 TDs during this 3 week span, making him the usual RB1 that he is.
Player to Avoid: Roddy White. Atlanta should be able to control the games vs. Carolina and Jacksonville with the run (both teams are Top-12 vs WR) and New Orleans will roll coverage towards White in that Week 16 tilt. White is still someone that will start on many rosters, but don't expect overly lofty totals. 150-200 yds and 0-1 TDs is my gut feeling.
Baltimore Ravens
Player to Look Out For: Ray Rice. This is why you used a first round pick on Ray Rice. It is wildly obvious to say that the Ravens best fantasy option is a player to look out for, but it cannot be overstated. Ray Rice is playing to get paid in 2012 and he is playing to get Baltimore a home playoff game and a first round bye. Start this man with confidence and expect him to do exactly what he does...125-150 yds per game rushing and receiving along with 4-5 TDs over this three game stretch. He will be leaned on.
Player to Avoid: Torrey Smith. I think the league has caught on to what Baltimore has been trying to do with this rookie. Lee Evans is also back in the fold. If 4-5 points is all you need out of your WR3, than Torrey Smith is your man. Those looking for a big splash from their WR3 should look elsewhere.
Buffalo Bills
Player to Look Out For: Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Buffalo fading away from playoff contention after the loss of Fred Jackson, this offense has no choice but to continue to lean on the Harvard Grad. With matchups against three teams who are Bottom-11 vs QBs, Fitzpatrick should produce similarly to the torrid start he got off to in September.
Player to Avoid: Any RB not named CJ Spiller. Spiller has received 19.5 touches per game since Jackson went on IR. Tashard choice has a total of 19 yards in 2 games. Don't screw around here.
Carolina Panthers
Player to Look Out For: Steve Smith. Obviously. This has been the #1 target on the team all season, but with 3 games of 10 fantasy points or less (standard scoring), there is no doubt owners have felt the need to scramble for other options. I think Smith is a Top 5 WR over this 3 week span, with 400-425 yds and 4-5 TDs being my prediction for how he rewards patient owners.
Player to Avoid: Stewart and Williams. There is never any tell that will lead you to know which of these two is going to get more work on a given week. Cam steals everything at the goal line. If you don't have better options than these two, you probably aren't going to hang around very long as is.
Chicago Bears
Player to Look Out For: Marion Barber. If Forte is indeed out the next 2-3 weeks, Barber should get the bulk of the carries and the goal line work. Tough to count on him for sure, but if you're this desperate, there are worse options.
Player to Avoid: All WRs. As long as Caleb Hanie is the QB, defenses with key on Johnny Knox, which has proven to be Hanie's #1 target. You absolutely cannot trust any Bears WR in a playoff week.
Cincinnati Bengals
Player to Look Out For: Cedric Benson. Savvy owners who drafted and stashed Benson all season will reap the benefits during Weeks 15 & 16. Matchups with the uber-soft Rams and Cardinals await and Benson should be able to exploit these favorable matchups. At the very least, the Bengals should be in control of those games and Benson should get plenty of opportunities. Plug CedBen in with confidence.
Player to Avoid: Any WR not named AJ Green. In my personal (and hopeful) opinion, I think AJ is set to explode during the last 4 weeks of this season. With the exception of one matchup vs. San Francisco, AJ has caught a TD or gone for at least 83 yds receiving. Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell will factor into the real life result of each game, but I don't think either of them are fantasy relevant.
Cleveland Browns
Player to Look Out For: None
Player to Avoid: All. No explanation needed for either.
Dallas Cowboys
Player to Look Out For: Miles Austin. He's been hurt all season. For some reason (more gut than anything else), I feel like Austin will be the most productive Dallas WR over the fantasy playoff run.
Player to Avoid: DeMarco Murray. I feel like as long as Jerry Jones is making personnel decisions for the Cowboys, Felix Jones will always have a job. Murray's numbers are on the way down (to be fair, his introduction to the fantasy world set the bar extremely high for him), and with Jones healthy and back in the mix for 8-10 touches, I feel like Murray is no better than a flex option, despite fantastic matchups with Tampa Bay and Philly.
Denver Broncos
Player to Look Out For: Demaryius Thomas. Tebow really seems to like this guy and he has absolute stud potential just by looking at him. He has tasty matchups with New England and Buffalo on the horizon as well, making him a super sleeper candidate.
Player to Avoid: Tim Tebow. The Bears have shown the ability to contain mobile QBs (ask Michael Vick). The Patriots will find some devious scheme to shut Tebow down. If Tebow somehow survives to Week 16, Buffalo presents a slightly easier matchup, but if you trust Tebow in Weeks 14 and 15, you might not make it this far.
Detroit Lions
Player to Look Out For: Matthew Stafford. If you have Stafford, you're rolling with him, but owners who do not have him will hope to avoid facing him. Stafford has arguably the easiest schedule remaining for QBs (Minnesota, @Oakland, & San Diego, all Bottom-10 vs. QBs) and he appears to be healthy and prepared to turn Detroit out of the mini-slump they are currently in.
Player to Avoid: None. Here's why: you likely have better options than Nate Burleson or Titus Young, but if you need either of these two for any reason, there is upside with the friendly QB matchup and 2 home games. If you own Kevin Smith, you can play him with a greater than 50% level of confidence if he is active. If Smith is out, you can play Maurice Morris in your flex.
Green Bay Packers
Player to Look Out For: Brandon Saine. Someone has to play RB for the Packers. Why not this guy? He is shifty and strong. He can catch and has great vision on screen plays. Green Bay isn't going to line up and smash it up the middle for 60 minutes. I hope this guy gets a chance do be productive because Grant has shown nothing and Starks can't seem to stay healthy.
Player to Avoid: Grant and Starks. Every member of the Green Bay passing attack has upside and Rodgers & Co. have proven that they will throw and throw and throw until you submit. John Kuhn gets more goal line work than either of these guys. There are better options.
Houston Texans
Player to Look Out For: Ben Tate. Houston is approaching their first division title and currently has a 2 game lead on Tennessee. TJ Yates is not going to be counted on to win games for this team. Tate and Foster should continue to pile up the carries as their defense continues to be one of the best in football. Tate is fresh and will take advantage of 8-12 touches per game.
Player to Avoid: Andre Johnson. The QB situation is bad. The guy can't seem to stay healthy. I'm not suggesting you drop the guy, but since he's been injured virtually all season, I have to believe you've figured out another option by now. Play Andre at your own risk if he is active, but temper your expectations.
Indianapolis Colts
Player to Look Out For: Pierre Garcon. Pierre Garcon has more garbage points than any other WR in football this year. It will continue. Dan Orlovsky has proven that he can operate comfortably against a prevent defense and he should be able to continue to find Pierre Garcon for backdoor covers for the remainder of the season.
Player to Avoid: Colts RBs. The schedule just doesn't show me any opportunity to get the run game going. Baltimore and Houston are Top-4 against RBs and Tennessee is a better football team this year. If you were holding Indy RBs for any reason, now is the time to relinquish.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Player to Look Out For: MJD. Why? Because he's the only player on this team with talent.
Player to Avoid: Everyone else. Why? Because no one else has talent.
Kansas City Chiefs
Player to Look Out For: None. As long as Tyler Palko is the QB, all Chiefs not named Dwayne Bowe should be unrostered. And even Bowe should be on your bench.
Player to Avoid: All of them. As long as Tyler Palko is the QB, all Chiefs not named Dwayne Bowe should be unrostered. And even Bowe should be on your bench.
Miami Dolphins
Player to Look Out For: Daniel Thomas. I really like his upside against Philly, Buffalo, & New England, all of which have been extremely generous against RBs this year. With Reggie Bush set to fade away any minute, Thomas, now healthy, is a solid backup who can carry the load if given the chance.
Player to Avoid: Matt Moore. I'm getting a little tired of hearing about Matt Moore from the Fantasy "Experts". Frankly, he is an underwhelming fantasy option who runs a little, hasn't hit 300 yds passing yet, and has an untalented group of WRs to throw to (remove Brandon Marshall). Again, there are better options than this guy.
Minnesota Vikings
Player to Look Out For: Devin Aromashodu. Michael Jenkins is on IR. Percy Harvin is due for a migraine any second now, not to mention he tore a ligament in his finger at practice. Aromashodu led the NFL in targets in Week 13 with 15. This guy has proven in the past (2 years ago) that he can be a threat down the stretch, especially since Minnesota figures to be behind in the next two (@ Detroit, vs. New Orleans) and not playing for anything in Week 16 (@ Washington). I expect that Aromashodu can produce high upside WR3 numbers.
Player to Avoid: Christian Ponder. There are just so many other options. He is supposedly hurt now (Hip Pointer) and there is so much going against Minnesota as it is. They may decide to pack in the rookie and let Joe Webb (who I thought deserved a chance before Ponder in Week 6) play out the string.
New England Patriots
Player to Look Out For: Stevan Ridley. For whatever reason, New England decided that they didn't want to put the Colts away in Week 13 by running the ball. When they did run in that game, Ridley got the most carries. The Patriots will have to turn to someone to run the ball and I feel like Ridley is primed to be that guy. (**Side Note: I really wanted to say Chad Ochocinco here, but I didn't have the stones. If he does anything, I want credit for it.**)
Player to Avoid: BenJarvus Green-Ellis. If this guy can't get 15 carries with a 31-3 lead at home against Indy, I don't know if I can trust him at any point going forward. This offense is based on the pass, and owners should tread carefully with any New England RB. I think the Law Firm will be a major factor in the real NFL Playoffs, but for the remainder of this season, use him only in the deepest of holes.
New Orleans Saints
Player to Look Out For: Robert Meachem. This guy has shown great chemistry with Drew Brees in the past and I like the role he played in the win over Detroit in Week 13. Proceed with caution when playing any Saints WR not named Colston, but Meachem could be a strong play in a strong QB matchup for Brees vs. Minnesota and against a weak Atlanta secondary.
Player to Avoid: Mark Ingram. People who have been waiting around for Ingram to finally be the workhorse the Saints hoped to be getting when they drafted him will be sorely disappointed in this playoff season. Ingram is currently suffering from Turf Toe and is involved in a 3 man backfield committee. Not the best scenario when planning a playoff roster.
New York Giants
Player to Look Out For: Hakeem Nicks. Coverage is starting to roll towards Victor Cruz and Nicks is too talented to not take advantage.
Player to Avoid: Ahmad Bradshaw. I honestly don't understand how physically tough someone has to be to play RB in the NFL with a broken foot. To me, it doesn't translate to Fantasy Stud.
New York Jets
Player to Look Out For: Plaxico Burress. Mark Sanchez really seems to be looking for this guy and with matchups coming up against Philadelphia (a potential landing spot this previous offseason) and the Giants (his former team), I can see some inspired play and big numbers in the very near future.
Player to Avoid: LaDainian Tomlinson. I think this guy is a solid role player, but if Shonn Greene goes down at any point, I would expect Joe McKnight to be the more impactful handcuff. LT can hold down a 10-12 touch workload and may grab some goal line work from time to time, but I wouldn't put any eggs in his basket.
Oakland Raiders
Player to Look Out For: Michael Bush. Even when Run-DMC returns, I expect that Bush has done enough the last 6 games (despite the stinker against Miami) to have earned himself a significant chunk of the workload. Bush offers the Raiders the opportunity to use McFadden sparingly, which will increase his effectiveness. Bush has RB2 value.
Player to Avoid: Oakland WRs. None of them are healthy in back to back weeks. When one of them blows up for monster points, they disappear the next week, get hurt, and restart the process on the waiver wire. Don't waste your time this deep into the season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Player to Look Out For: Michael Vick. This dude signed a contract worth $100,000,000+. Do you see all those zeros? He will start this weekend against Miami and for the remainder of the season, provided he stays healthy. I expect him to return to his elite form, now that the pressure is off the Eagles to be "The Dream Team". Owners who were patient with Vick through the crap sandwich he served up all season will be rewarded this playoff season.
Player to Avoid: Jeremy Maclin. The preseason illness and the cavalcade of injuries he is trying to come back from now just make him so unattractive to me. I also think DeSean Jackson will turn this train wreck around and that Riley Cooper has carved out a nice little niche for this team. Maclin might be the odd man out.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Player to Look Out For: Antonio Brown. He went off for 151 yds and a score tonight on 5 catches (granted he broke a 79 yarder with some sick twists and turns). His targets are steady and his role in the offense continues to grow. You can roll Brown out as a WR2 from here on out. I would project Brown as a Top-15 WR from here on out.
Player to Avoid: Rashard Mendenhall. Yes, I see that Week 16 matchup with St. Louis. If you remove the 146 yd performance against Jacksonville in Week 6, Mendenhall has not eclipsed 71 yds once this season. The Week 15 matchup with San Francisco is not exactly confidence inducing. Expect low end RB2 numbers.
San Diego Chargers
Player to Look Out For: Malcom Floyd. If this guy can stay healthy, he looks to be the missing piece to the puzzle. The Chargers were 0-4 without Floyd in the lineup. He averages 22.1 yds per catch. This guy just brings it all together for this offense. Play him as a high end WR3/low end WR2 with confidence.
Player to Avoid: Mike Tolbert. Ryan Mathews is being given every opportunity to be the man on every down and Tolbert's workload is sparatic. He did score a TD in Week 13, but I feel like that will be his last. Without TDs or a Mathews injury, Tolbert has no value in a playoff starting lineup.
San Francisco
Player to Look Out For: Michael Crabtree. He is on the fantasy football All-Time Disappointment Team, but he has an opportunity to be part of something great with this 49ers team. He is the only "elite" target Alex Smith has. He has two beatable matchups (Pittsburgh will be tough, but San Fran will be at home). If not now, when?
Player to Avoid: Frank Gore. You can't not start Gore if you own him and he's active. When you bench an active Frank Gore, he goes for 150 and 2 scores. His upside is wildly low for a playoff stretch. This week's matchup with Arizona looks appealing, but it really isn't. Pittsburgh and Seattle are formidable run defenses. It could be tough sledding for anyone depending alot on Frank Gore this postseason.
Seattle Seahawks
Player to Look Out For: Marshawn Lynch. He's the only one worth a damn.
Player to Avoid: The rest of Seattle's Offense. Why? Marshawn Lynch is the only one worth a damn.
St. Louis Rams
Player to Look Out For: As long as the QB situation is murked by injuries, I can't recommend starting any Rams.
Player to Avoid: Until Sam Bradford is 100% behind center, you can't start any Ram with confidence. You can start Jackson and Lloyd, but confidence is not included.
Tampa Bay
Player to Look Out For: Mike Williams. He will do everything possible to rectify his "bust" label. With Freeman back at the helm and a friendly finish to the season, I like Williams to post strong WR2 numbers. Plug him back in to those lineups!
Player to Avoid: LeGarrette Blount. It is tough to avoid this guy, but after his 19 yard stinker against the worst fantasy run defense (Carolina), I am backing off any high expectations I had for Blount. Roll with him as necessary, but temper your expectations to limit further disappointments.
Tennessee Titans
Player to Look Out For: Damian Williams. I love this guy. He is my Super Sleeper for the rest of the season. The schedule is set up for strong performances. Chris Johnson is seemingly back and will take alot of every other team's attention. Single coverage awaits. Williams is a favorite target of Hasselbeck and as long as Tennessee stays in the playoff hunt, Locker stays benched. My bold prediction for Williams in Weeks 14-16: 250-275 yds, 4 TDs.
Player to Avoid: Anyone not named Chris Johnson or Damian Williams. It's just not a wise idea to roll out any other Titan skill position players. Less is more.
Washington Redskins
Player to Look Out For: Roy Helu. This is Dominic Rhodes from 2008. This is Jamaal Charles and Jerome Harrison from 2009. This is Peyton Hillis from 2010. Helu is this year's lotto ticket. Plug him in and leave him there. Low End RB1 numbers can be expected. Shanahanigans are done.
Player to Avoid: Rex Grossman. I don't care how juicy the schedule is. If you are using Rex in your fantasy playoffs, you better have lost Schaub and Cutler and be in a 14 man league. In 10 or 12 man leagues, there is too much depth at the position to trust a turnover machine like Rex. He also lost his starting TE and LT to suspension.
I will be presenting my playoff preview on a team by team basis with specific players to look out for and to avoid.
Arizona Cardinals
Player to Look Out For: Andre Roberts. He is starting to look like a nice safety valve for Kevin Kolb and we know Kolb hasn't been able to consistently hook up with Fitz. Roberts could potentially be a solid start in deeper formats as a Mid-Range WR3. You are more than likely starting Fitzgerald if you have him, but Roberts could outperform him during this 3 week span.
Player to Avoid: Kevin Kolb. I don't need to tell you this, but for those looking for a sneaky matchup play if teams start resting their starters (Aaron Rodgers owners!!), Kolb is not your guy. He will face three teams that are Top-7 vs QBs. There are better options.
Atlanta Falcons
Player to Look Out For: Michael Turner. While the last two weeks have been a bit of a let down, Turner has been solid all season and he has always come to play vs. the rest of the NFC South. I expect Turner to rush for 375-450 yds and 3-4 TDs during this 3 week span, making him the usual RB1 that he is.
Player to Avoid: Roddy White. Atlanta should be able to control the games vs. Carolina and Jacksonville with the run (both teams are Top-12 vs WR) and New Orleans will roll coverage towards White in that Week 16 tilt. White is still someone that will start on many rosters, but don't expect overly lofty totals. 150-200 yds and 0-1 TDs is my gut feeling.
Baltimore Ravens
Player to Look Out For: Ray Rice. This is why you used a first round pick on Ray Rice. It is wildly obvious to say that the Ravens best fantasy option is a player to look out for, but it cannot be overstated. Ray Rice is playing to get paid in 2012 and he is playing to get Baltimore a home playoff game and a first round bye. Start this man with confidence and expect him to do exactly what he does...125-150 yds per game rushing and receiving along with 4-5 TDs over this three game stretch. He will be leaned on.
Player to Avoid: Torrey Smith. I think the league has caught on to what Baltimore has been trying to do with this rookie. Lee Evans is also back in the fold. If 4-5 points is all you need out of your WR3, than Torrey Smith is your man. Those looking for a big splash from their WR3 should look elsewhere.
Buffalo Bills
Player to Look Out For: Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Buffalo fading away from playoff contention after the loss of Fred Jackson, this offense has no choice but to continue to lean on the Harvard Grad. With matchups against three teams who are Bottom-11 vs QBs, Fitzpatrick should produce similarly to the torrid start he got off to in September.
Player to Avoid: Any RB not named CJ Spiller. Spiller has received 19.5 touches per game since Jackson went on IR. Tashard choice has a total of 19 yards in 2 games. Don't screw around here.
Carolina Panthers
Player to Look Out For: Steve Smith. Obviously. This has been the #1 target on the team all season, but with 3 games of 10 fantasy points or less (standard scoring), there is no doubt owners have felt the need to scramble for other options. I think Smith is a Top 5 WR over this 3 week span, with 400-425 yds and 4-5 TDs being my prediction for how he rewards patient owners.
Player to Avoid: Stewart and Williams. There is never any tell that will lead you to know which of these two is going to get more work on a given week. Cam steals everything at the goal line. If you don't have better options than these two, you probably aren't going to hang around very long as is.
Chicago Bears
Player to Look Out For: Marion Barber. If Forte is indeed out the next 2-3 weeks, Barber should get the bulk of the carries and the goal line work. Tough to count on him for sure, but if you're this desperate, there are worse options.
Player to Avoid: All WRs. As long as Caleb Hanie is the QB, defenses with key on Johnny Knox, which has proven to be Hanie's #1 target. You absolutely cannot trust any Bears WR in a playoff week.
Cincinnati Bengals
Player to Look Out For: Cedric Benson. Savvy owners who drafted and stashed Benson all season will reap the benefits during Weeks 15 & 16. Matchups with the uber-soft Rams and Cardinals await and Benson should be able to exploit these favorable matchups. At the very least, the Bengals should be in control of those games and Benson should get plenty of opportunities. Plug CedBen in with confidence.
Player to Avoid: Any WR not named AJ Green. In my personal (and hopeful) opinion, I think AJ is set to explode during the last 4 weeks of this season. With the exception of one matchup vs. San Francisco, AJ has caught a TD or gone for at least 83 yds receiving. Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell will factor into the real life result of each game, but I don't think either of them are fantasy relevant.
Cleveland Browns
Player to Look Out For: None
Player to Avoid: All. No explanation needed for either.
Dallas Cowboys
Player to Look Out For: Miles Austin. He's been hurt all season. For some reason (more gut than anything else), I feel like Austin will be the most productive Dallas WR over the fantasy playoff run.
Player to Avoid: DeMarco Murray. I feel like as long as Jerry Jones is making personnel decisions for the Cowboys, Felix Jones will always have a job. Murray's numbers are on the way down (to be fair, his introduction to the fantasy world set the bar extremely high for him), and with Jones healthy and back in the mix for 8-10 touches, I feel like Murray is no better than a flex option, despite fantastic matchups with Tampa Bay and Philly.
Denver Broncos
Player to Look Out For: Demaryius Thomas. Tebow really seems to like this guy and he has absolute stud potential just by looking at him. He has tasty matchups with New England and Buffalo on the horizon as well, making him a super sleeper candidate.
Player to Avoid: Tim Tebow. The Bears have shown the ability to contain mobile QBs (ask Michael Vick). The Patriots will find some devious scheme to shut Tebow down. If Tebow somehow survives to Week 16, Buffalo presents a slightly easier matchup, but if you trust Tebow in Weeks 14 and 15, you might not make it this far.
Detroit Lions
Player to Look Out For: Matthew Stafford. If you have Stafford, you're rolling with him, but owners who do not have him will hope to avoid facing him. Stafford has arguably the easiest schedule remaining for QBs (Minnesota, @Oakland, & San Diego, all Bottom-10 vs. QBs) and he appears to be healthy and prepared to turn Detroit out of the mini-slump they are currently in.
Player to Avoid: None. Here's why: you likely have better options than Nate Burleson or Titus Young, but if you need either of these two for any reason, there is upside with the friendly QB matchup and 2 home games. If you own Kevin Smith, you can play him with a greater than 50% level of confidence if he is active. If Smith is out, you can play Maurice Morris in your flex.
Green Bay Packers
Player to Look Out For: Brandon Saine. Someone has to play RB for the Packers. Why not this guy? He is shifty and strong. He can catch and has great vision on screen plays. Green Bay isn't going to line up and smash it up the middle for 60 minutes. I hope this guy gets a chance do be productive because Grant has shown nothing and Starks can't seem to stay healthy.
Player to Avoid: Grant and Starks. Every member of the Green Bay passing attack has upside and Rodgers & Co. have proven that they will throw and throw and throw until you submit. John Kuhn gets more goal line work than either of these guys. There are better options.
Houston Texans
Player to Look Out For: Ben Tate. Houston is approaching their first division title and currently has a 2 game lead on Tennessee. TJ Yates is not going to be counted on to win games for this team. Tate and Foster should continue to pile up the carries as their defense continues to be one of the best in football. Tate is fresh and will take advantage of 8-12 touches per game.
Player to Avoid: Andre Johnson. The QB situation is bad. The guy can't seem to stay healthy. I'm not suggesting you drop the guy, but since he's been injured virtually all season, I have to believe you've figured out another option by now. Play Andre at your own risk if he is active, but temper your expectations.
Indianapolis Colts
Player to Look Out For: Pierre Garcon. Pierre Garcon has more garbage points than any other WR in football this year. It will continue. Dan Orlovsky has proven that he can operate comfortably against a prevent defense and he should be able to continue to find Pierre Garcon for backdoor covers for the remainder of the season.
Player to Avoid: Colts RBs. The schedule just doesn't show me any opportunity to get the run game going. Baltimore and Houston are Top-4 against RBs and Tennessee is a better football team this year. If you were holding Indy RBs for any reason, now is the time to relinquish.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Player to Look Out For: MJD. Why? Because he's the only player on this team with talent.
Player to Avoid: Everyone else. Why? Because no one else has talent.
Kansas City Chiefs
Player to Look Out For: None. As long as Tyler Palko is the QB, all Chiefs not named Dwayne Bowe should be unrostered. And even Bowe should be on your bench.
Player to Avoid: All of them. As long as Tyler Palko is the QB, all Chiefs not named Dwayne Bowe should be unrostered. And even Bowe should be on your bench.
Miami Dolphins
Player to Look Out For: Daniel Thomas. I really like his upside against Philly, Buffalo, & New England, all of which have been extremely generous against RBs this year. With Reggie Bush set to fade away any minute, Thomas, now healthy, is a solid backup who can carry the load if given the chance.
Player to Avoid: Matt Moore. I'm getting a little tired of hearing about Matt Moore from the Fantasy "Experts". Frankly, he is an underwhelming fantasy option who runs a little, hasn't hit 300 yds passing yet, and has an untalented group of WRs to throw to (remove Brandon Marshall). Again, there are better options than this guy.
Minnesota Vikings
Player to Look Out For: Devin Aromashodu. Michael Jenkins is on IR. Percy Harvin is due for a migraine any second now, not to mention he tore a ligament in his finger at practice. Aromashodu led the NFL in targets in Week 13 with 15. This guy has proven in the past (2 years ago) that he can be a threat down the stretch, especially since Minnesota figures to be behind in the next two (@ Detroit, vs. New Orleans) and not playing for anything in Week 16 (@ Washington). I expect that Aromashodu can produce high upside WR3 numbers.
Player to Avoid: Christian Ponder. There are just so many other options. He is supposedly hurt now (Hip Pointer) and there is so much going against Minnesota as it is. They may decide to pack in the rookie and let Joe Webb (who I thought deserved a chance before Ponder in Week 6) play out the string.
New England Patriots
Player to Look Out For: Stevan Ridley. For whatever reason, New England decided that they didn't want to put the Colts away in Week 13 by running the ball. When they did run in that game, Ridley got the most carries. The Patriots will have to turn to someone to run the ball and I feel like Ridley is primed to be that guy. (**Side Note: I really wanted to say Chad Ochocinco here, but I didn't have the stones. If he does anything, I want credit for it.**)
Player to Avoid: BenJarvus Green-Ellis. If this guy can't get 15 carries with a 31-3 lead at home against Indy, I don't know if I can trust him at any point going forward. This offense is based on the pass, and owners should tread carefully with any New England RB. I think the Law Firm will be a major factor in the real NFL Playoffs, but for the remainder of this season, use him only in the deepest of holes.
New Orleans Saints
Player to Look Out For: Robert Meachem. This guy has shown great chemistry with Drew Brees in the past and I like the role he played in the win over Detroit in Week 13. Proceed with caution when playing any Saints WR not named Colston, but Meachem could be a strong play in a strong QB matchup for Brees vs. Minnesota and against a weak Atlanta secondary.
Player to Avoid: Mark Ingram. People who have been waiting around for Ingram to finally be the workhorse the Saints hoped to be getting when they drafted him will be sorely disappointed in this playoff season. Ingram is currently suffering from Turf Toe and is involved in a 3 man backfield committee. Not the best scenario when planning a playoff roster.
New York Giants
Player to Look Out For: Hakeem Nicks. Coverage is starting to roll towards Victor Cruz and Nicks is too talented to not take advantage.
Player to Avoid: Ahmad Bradshaw. I honestly don't understand how physically tough someone has to be to play RB in the NFL with a broken foot. To me, it doesn't translate to Fantasy Stud.
New York Jets
Player to Look Out For: Plaxico Burress. Mark Sanchez really seems to be looking for this guy and with matchups coming up against Philadelphia (a potential landing spot this previous offseason) and the Giants (his former team), I can see some inspired play and big numbers in the very near future.
Player to Avoid: LaDainian Tomlinson. I think this guy is a solid role player, but if Shonn Greene goes down at any point, I would expect Joe McKnight to be the more impactful handcuff. LT can hold down a 10-12 touch workload and may grab some goal line work from time to time, but I wouldn't put any eggs in his basket.
Oakland Raiders
Player to Look Out For: Michael Bush. Even when Run-DMC returns, I expect that Bush has done enough the last 6 games (despite the stinker against Miami) to have earned himself a significant chunk of the workload. Bush offers the Raiders the opportunity to use McFadden sparingly, which will increase his effectiveness. Bush has RB2 value.
Player to Avoid: Oakland WRs. None of them are healthy in back to back weeks. When one of them blows up for monster points, they disappear the next week, get hurt, and restart the process on the waiver wire. Don't waste your time this deep into the season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Player to Look Out For: Michael Vick. This dude signed a contract worth $100,000,000+. Do you see all those zeros? He will start this weekend against Miami and for the remainder of the season, provided he stays healthy. I expect him to return to his elite form, now that the pressure is off the Eagles to be "The Dream Team". Owners who were patient with Vick through the crap sandwich he served up all season will be rewarded this playoff season.
Player to Avoid: Jeremy Maclin. The preseason illness and the cavalcade of injuries he is trying to come back from now just make him so unattractive to me. I also think DeSean Jackson will turn this train wreck around and that Riley Cooper has carved out a nice little niche for this team. Maclin might be the odd man out.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Player to Look Out For: Antonio Brown. He went off for 151 yds and a score tonight on 5 catches (granted he broke a 79 yarder with some sick twists and turns). His targets are steady and his role in the offense continues to grow. You can roll Brown out as a WR2 from here on out. I would project Brown as a Top-15 WR from here on out.
Player to Avoid: Rashard Mendenhall. Yes, I see that Week 16 matchup with St. Louis. If you remove the 146 yd performance against Jacksonville in Week 6, Mendenhall has not eclipsed 71 yds once this season. The Week 15 matchup with San Francisco is not exactly confidence inducing. Expect low end RB2 numbers.
San Diego Chargers
Player to Look Out For: Malcom Floyd. If this guy can stay healthy, he looks to be the missing piece to the puzzle. The Chargers were 0-4 without Floyd in the lineup. He averages 22.1 yds per catch. This guy just brings it all together for this offense. Play him as a high end WR3/low end WR2 with confidence.
Player to Avoid: Mike Tolbert. Ryan Mathews is being given every opportunity to be the man on every down and Tolbert's workload is sparatic. He did score a TD in Week 13, but I feel like that will be his last. Without TDs or a Mathews injury, Tolbert has no value in a playoff starting lineup.
San Francisco
Player to Look Out For: Michael Crabtree. He is on the fantasy football All-Time Disappointment Team, but he has an opportunity to be part of something great with this 49ers team. He is the only "elite" target Alex Smith has. He has two beatable matchups (Pittsburgh will be tough, but San Fran will be at home). If not now, when?
Player to Avoid: Frank Gore. You can't not start Gore if you own him and he's active. When you bench an active Frank Gore, he goes for 150 and 2 scores. His upside is wildly low for a playoff stretch. This week's matchup with Arizona looks appealing, but it really isn't. Pittsburgh and Seattle are formidable run defenses. It could be tough sledding for anyone depending alot on Frank Gore this postseason.
Seattle Seahawks
Player to Look Out For: Marshawn Lynch. He's the only one worth a damn.
Player to Avoid: The rest of Seattle's Offense. Why? Marshawn Lynch is the only one worth a damn.
St. Louis Rams
Player to Look Out For: As long as the QB situation is murked by injuries, I can't recommend starting any Rams.
Player to Avoid: Until Sam Bradford is 100% behind center, you can't start any Ram with confidence. You can start Jackson and Lloyd, but confidence is not included.
Tampa Bay
Player to Look Out For: Mike Williams. He will do everything possible to rectify his "bust" label. With Freeman back at the helm and a friendly finish to the season, I like Williams to post strong WR2 numbers. Plug him back in to those lineups!
Player to Avoid: LeGarrette Blount. It is tough to avoid this guy, but after his 19 yard stinker against the worst fantasy run defense (Carolina), I am backing off any high expectations I had for Blount. Roll with him as necessary, but temper your expectations to limit further disappointments.
Tennessee Titans
Player to Look Out For: Damian Williams. I love this guy. He is my Super Sleeper for the rest of the season. The schedule is set up for strong performances. Chris Johnson is seemingly back and will take alot of every other team's attention. Single coverage awaits. Williams is a favorite target of Hasselbeck and as long as Tennessee stays in the playoff hunt, Locker stays benched. My bold prediction for Williams in Weeks 14-16: 250-275 yds, 4 TDs.
Player to Avoid: Anyone not named Chris Johnson or Damian Williams. It's just not a wise idea to roll out any other Titan skill position players. Less is more.
Washington Redskins
Player to Look Out For: Roy Helu. This is Dominic Rhodes from 2008. This is Jamaal Charles and Jerome Harrison from 2009. This is Peyton Hillis from 2010. Helu is this year's lotto ticket. Plug him in and leave him there. Low End RB1 numbers can be expected. Shanahanigans are done.
Player to Avoid: Rex Grossman. I don't care how juicy the schedule is. If you are using Rex in your fantasy playoffs, you better have lost Schaub and Cutler and be in a 14 man league. In 10 or 12 man leagues, there is too much depth at the position to trust a turnover machine like Rex. He also lost his starting TE and LT to suspension.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
How Many is Too Many?
The fantasy league I play in with my friends is heading into its 4th postseason this week. I won the inaugural championship and another manager has won the last two back-to-back. I noticed a trend in the rosters of each of these championship teams: Several Teammates were on each roster. In 2008, I had Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne & Dominic Rhodes. In 2009, my buddy had Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, & Green Bay's defense. In 2010, the same guy had Tom Brady & Rob Gronkowski and also used his 2nd round pick on Randy Moss prior to his dismissal from New England, Minnesota and eventually, the NFL. Is it a wise proposition to load up on players from the same team? If it is, how many is the limit? Besides RB handcuffs, should you consider rostering multiple WRs?
The answer to whether or not it is wise to load up on players from the same team in general is completely dependant on the situation. The Green Bay Packers are 12-0 as of this writing and every starter involved in the passing game is a weekly starter in every fantasy league (Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson & Finley) and even their secondary players are acceptable flex options on any given week (Jones and Driver). Unless Oakland, Kansas City or Chicago steps up big time with some never before seen gameplan, this passing attack should continue to thrive and produce at the same clip we've seen this entire season. I personally own Rodgers, Jennings, Mason Crosby AND their defense, so I have obviously staked my claim in the Packers' success (being a Bears fan makes this doubly tough to swallow). I personally have always felt that fantasy success comes from maximizing scoring opportunities. While Rodgers spreads the wealth, Jennings remains the primary option and most consistent week to week option (12.24 points per week with only 3 games below 10 points). Everytime Rodgers hooks up with Jennings on a TD, I am getting 12 points + Yardage + the extra point from Crosby. Everytime the Packers stall in the Red Zone, I get a FG. Everytime the Packers score on defense, I get those points as well. I essentially sit here on Sundays hoping for no special teams TDs, as my league doesn't award those TDs to the team defense. With the Packers being the highest scoring team in the league at 35.0 ppg, this is a wise investment on my part. Simply put, load up on teammates when the offensive situation is universally fantasy friendly.
I wouldn't say that there is a "limit" on how many teammates you own, but I would suggest not having more than 3 offensive players per team on your roster. If you look to my championship roster or 2008, owning Manning, Wayne and Rhodes ended up being a really strong play because they had 3 beatable matchups in the playoffs. I owned Manning and Wayne for the majority of the season and I picked up Rhodes when Joseph Addai got hurt in Week 14. Rhodes went on to score 23.6 and 14.9 in my fantasy playoffs. It helped that these 3 were on an elite team that wasn't resting heading towards the playoffs, but I can only recommend having this kind of set up if the matchups warrant it. Indianapolis was playing Detroit and Jacksonville during my fantasy playoffs in 2008. Had they been playing Pittsburgh and Chicago, I may have had to rethink the value of Dominic Rhodes (Manning and Wayne are virtually unbenchable when playing as a combo). You always run the risk of a team running into an awful matchup where the entire offense gets shut down in a situation where this wouldn't be expected (see Week 5, 2010 Colts vs. Chiefs). If you start multiple players from the same team in the presumed "favorable" matchup, you can definitely get burned.
Finally, with today's NFL being a passing league more than ever before, owning multiple WRs from the same team has become a more customary practice. Nicks & Cruz, Bryant & Austin (& Robinson), Jennings & Nelson, Wallace & Brown, Roddy & Julio, Holmes & Burress and Boldin & Smith. All of these players are rosterable, startable, and could be on the same team in any particular fantasy league. This is where, unless you don't have better options, I tend to draw the line on teammates in your lineup. As I said before, any game can go completely wrong when you have the presumed favorable matchup while the game that projects to be a defensive struggle in bad weather ends up being a shootout. Starting 2 WRs from the same team is way riskier than starting a RB and a WR from the same team because you know that at the very least, an RB and a WR are going to get their seperate piece of the workload pie. You can be almost 100% assured that WRs will get their targets and RBs will get their carries. The only time I can get behind starting 2 WRs from the same team is if there is an injury to the 3rd WR (like the Cowboys and Giants currently have), a non-elite TE in the picture (like the Giants and Steelers) and a Top 5-6 QB (like the Giants and Packers currently have)....obviously, I am not so subtly saying that the situations in Green Bay, Dallas, and New York (Giants) are the only situations I think work best for starting 2 WRs in your lineup.
The NFL is a league of parity where there is rarely a repeat champion. Talent moves around the league via free agency and keeps teams more competitive. Rookies are coming to the league more ready to play immediately than ever before. With talent at an elite level and scoring at an all-time high, there are multiple VIABLE fantasy options on every team. Don't be afraid to load up on one team's talent, but don't forget to offset that talent with a variety of players on other teams.
The answer to whether or not it is wise to load up on players from the same team in general is completely dependant on the situation. The Green Bay Packers are 12-0 as of this writing and every starter involved in the passing game is a weekly starter in every fantasy league (Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson & Finley) and even their secondary players are acceptable flex options on any given week (Jones and Driver). Unless Oakland, Kansas City or Chicago steps up big time with some never before seen gameplan, this passing attack should continue to thrive and produce at the same clip we've seen this entire season. I personally own Rodgers, Jennings, Mason Crosby AND their defense, so I have obviously staked my claim in the Packers' success (being a Bears fan makes this doubly tough to swallow). I personally have always felt that fantasy success comes from maximizing scoring opportunities. While Rodgers spreads the wealth, Jennings remains the primary option and most consistent week to week option (12.24 points per week with only 3 games below 10 points). Everytime Rodgers hooks up with Jennings on a TD, I am getting 12 points + Yardage + the extra point from Crosby. Everytime the Packers stall in the Red Zone, I get a FG. Everytime the Packers score on defense, I get those points as well. I essentially sit here on Sundays hoping for no special teams TDs, as my league doesn't award those TDs to the team defense. With the Packers being the highest scoring team in the league at 35.0 ppg, this is a wise investment on my part. Simply put, load up on teammates when the offensive situation is universally fantasy friendly.
I wouldn't say that there is a "limit" on how many teammates you own, but I would suggest not having more than 3 offensive players per team on your roster. If you look to my championship roster or 2008, owning Manning, Wayne and Rhodes ended up being a really strong play because they had 3 beatable matchups in the playoffs. I owned Manning and Wayne for the majority of the season and I picked up Rhodes when Joseph Addai got hurt in Week 14. Rhodes went on to score 23.6 and 14.9 in my fantasy playoffs. It helped that these 3 were on an elite team that wasn't resting heading towards the playoffs, but I can only recommend having this kind of set up if the matchups warrant it. Indianapolis was playing Detroit and Jacksonville during my fantasy playoffs in 2008. Had they been playing Pittsburgh and Chicago, I may have had to rethink the value of Dominic Rhodes (Manning and Wayne are virtually unbenchable when playing as a combo). You always run the risk of a team running into an awful matchup where the entire offense gets shut down in a situation where this wouldn't be expected (see Week 5, 2010 Colts vs. Chiefs). If you start multiple players from the same team in the presumed "favorable" matchup, you can definitely get burned.
Finally, with today's NFL being a passing league more than ever before, owning multiple WRs from the same team has become a more customary practice. Nicks & Cruz, Bryant & Austin (& Robinson), Jennings & Nelson, Wallace & Brown, Roddy & Julio, Holmes & Burress and Boldin & Smith. All of these players are rosterable, startable, and could be on the same team in any particular fantasy league. This is where, unless you don't have better options, I tend to draw the line on teammates in your lineup. As I said before, any game can go completely wrong when you have the presumed favorable matchup while the game that projects to be a defensive struggle in bad weather ends up being a shootout. Starting 2 WRs from the same team is way riskier than starting a RB and a WR from the same team because you know that at the very least, an RB and a WR are going to get their seperate piece of the workload pie. You can be almost 100% assured that WRs will get their targets and RBs will get their carries. The only time I can get behind starting 2 WRs from the same team is if there is an injury to the 3rd WR (like the Cowboys and Giants currently have), a non-elite TE in the picture (like the Giants and Steelers) and a Top 5-6 QB (like the Giants and Packers currently have)....obviously, I am not so subtly saying that the situations in Green Bay, Dallas, and New York (Giants) are the only situations I think work best for starting 2 WRs in your lineup.
The NFL is a league of parity where there is rarely a repeat champion. Talent moves around the league via free agency and keeps teams more competitive. Rookies are coming to the league more ready to play immediately than ever before. With talent at an elite level and scoring at an all-time high, there are multiple VIABLE fantasy options on every team. Don't be afraid to load up on one team's talent, but don't forget to offset that talent with a variety of players on other teams.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Always Start Your Studs?
Prior to last night's Seahawks-Eagles tilt, my best friend texted me and said "Benching McCoy...he's supposedly limited today...DAMMIT". My response to him, with very little thought behind it was "Start Him. Doesn't matter." So he put him back in. I followed up with the playful "If you don't start him, he probably goes off for 250 and 3 scores". He then went off for 133 total yards and 2 TDs (1 Receiving, 1 Rushing). By halftime, McCoy had already hit his "projected" total (a feature I always find laughable on all fantasy sites) and I texted my buddy and said "The Rule for Stud RBs is Active = Start". My interpretation (especially for RBs) has always been if your Stud RB is Active, it is because the team has deemed that player able to handle his usual workload and, barring reaggravation of an injury, will receive the usual workload. I sat back and thought about the statement I made and asked myself "Does this rule really apply?"
First off, let's define what a Fantasy Stud is. A Fantasy Stud is a player who is among the top 5-7 at his respective position in scoring and performs at the highest levels regardless of matchup. The number "5-7" is subjective, especially when talking about QBs and TEs, because there are far less of these players to choose from. In my opinion though, players like Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy and Drew Brees are players who you play every week, regardless of matchup, weather, or injury. If these guys are Active on game day, you are leaving them in your lineup. Obviously, there are other players who qualify as studs, but I didn't want to present this point as a debate on who is and isn't a stud.
Here's the twist: Fantasy "Experts" always tell you to start your studs. This is their way of telling you not to overthink your roster situation and play those players who you spent a high draft pick on or traded for. I always think back to the 2009 Playoffs in my League where my friend started Joseph Addai and Adrian Peterson at RB along with Beanie Wells in his flex. Wells and Addai both outscored Peterson. While Peterson outperformed his projected score, he was still the lowest scoring of the 3. Why do I tell you this? Wells and Addai started due to fantastic matchups and exceeded expectations and Peterson started because "You always start your studs." On his bench that day was Jerome Harrison and his 47.8 standard fantasy points. My buddy lost his semi-final matchup by 16 points and went on to finish 3rd (scoring the most points in Week 16, as has been the case in each of my league's 3 previous seasons). The point is this: nobody in their right mind could possibly blame my friend for starting Peterson, Wells, or Addai over the previously unknown Jerome Harrison, who came into Week 15 of 2009 with 301 rushing yards ALL SEASON!!! Had my friend thought outside the box and went against the "Always Start Your Studs" advice of the so-called "Experts", he could have coasted to an easy Championship.
You can also look back to just last week, Week 12, 2011. Andre Johnson returned from his hamstring injury to put up 2.2 standard fantasy points. Andre 3000 was the consensus #1 WR off the board in almost every draft I mocked, saw, or participated in, making him a surefire "Stud". However, coming off an injury that cost him 6.5 games with a backup QB making his first start since 2008, was he really someone that should have been started? In my league, 38 different WR are rostered (we play a highly competitive 8 man league) and Andre was the 31st overall WR of that group.
My plea to fantasy owners is this: do your own research and make your own decisions when it comes to your lineup. On NFL Fantasy Live on the NFL Network (2:00p/12a EST), I heard a statement that bugs the living crap out of me. The statement was "You don't want to be the guy who missed the playoffs because you started Riley Cooper over Larry Fitzgerald". We already know that Riley Cooper scored 9.4 standard fantasy points last night. Fitzgerald has failed to exceed that total 4 times, 3 of those with Kevin Kolb as his QB. That means in the 7 games Fitzgerald has played with Kolb, he didn't reach 9.5 points in 42.9% of those games. So if Fitzgerald puts up a 2 catch - 29 yard stinker this Sunday against Dallas and you lose your matchup because you started Fitzgerald over Cooper, you're going to feel even worse if you had any inkling of starting Cooper. Taking a chance with the roster YOU assembled should leave you with no regrets when the season is over because this is the point of playing fantasy football. We spend weeks building a roster that suits the way we individually play the game and if you are unwilling to take a calculated late season risk, why own a player like Riley Cooper when you have a stud like Larry Fitzgerald? We all know that as the fantasy season winds down, matchups do tend to come down to small amounts of points, so we know that every point counts.
You want to start your studs TO YOUR BENEFIT...your studs come with an extra boost of confidence when you start them (because they've typically earned it), but most of the time, the savvy fantasy owner wins a championship because they find that one great lottery ticket type player on the Waiver Wire that they aren't afraid to bump a flat-lining "stud" (see Adrian Peterson, end of 2010) for along with a roster filled with consistency.
Going forward, here are the only players I deem as "unbenchable" under any Non-Injury circumstances:
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Arian Foster (despite the QB situation in Houston)
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte
Wes Welker
Calvin Johnson
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
First off, let's define what a Fantasy Stud is. A Fantasy Stud is a player who is among the top 5-7 at his respective position in scoring and performs at the highest levels regardless of matchup. The number "5-7" is subjective, especially when talking about QBs and TEs, because there are far less of these players to choose from. In my opinion though, players like Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy and Drew Brees are players who you play every week, regardless of matchup, weather, or injury. If these guys are Active on game day, you are leaving them in your lineup. Obviously, there are other players who qualify as studs, but I didn't want to present this point as a debate on who is and isn't a stud.
Here's the twist: Fantasy "Experts" always tell you to start your studs. This is their way of telling you not to overthink your roster situation and play those players who you spent a high draft pick on or traded for. I always think back to the 2009 Playoffs in my League where my friend started Joseph Addai and Adrian Peterson at RB along with Beanie Wells in his flex. Wells and Addai both outscored Peterson. While Peterson outperformed his projected score, he was still the lowest scoring of the 3. Why do I tell you this? Wells and Addai started due to fantastic matchups and exceeded expectations and Peterson started because "You always start your studs." On his bench that day was Jerome Harrison and his 47.8 standard fantasy points. My buddy lost his semi-final matchup by 16 points and went on to finish 3rd (scoring the most points in Week 16, as has been the case in each of my league's 3 previous seasons). The point is this: nobody in their right mind could possibly blame my friend for starting Peterson, Wells, or Addai over the previously unknown Jerome Harrison, who came into Week 15 of 2009 with 301 rushing yards ALL SEASON!!! Had my friend thought outside the box and went against the "Always Start Your Studs" advice of the so-called "Experts", he could have coasted to an easy Championship.
You can also look back to just last week, Week 12, 2011. Andre Johnson returned from his hamstring injury to put up 2.2 standard fantasy points. Andre 3000 was the consensus #1 WR off the board in almost every draft I mocked, saw, or participated in, making him a surefire "Stud". However, coming off an injury that cost him 6.5 games with a backup QB making his first start since 2008, was he really someone that should have been started? In my league, 38 different WR are rostered (we play a highly competitive 8 man league) and Andre was the 31st overall WR of that group.
My plea to fantasy owners is this: do your own research and make your own decisions when it comes to your lineup. On NFL Fantasy Live on the NFL Network (2:00p/12a EST), I heard a statement that bugs the living crap out of me. The statement was "You don't want to be the guy who missed the playoffs because you started Riley Cooper over Larry Fitzgerald". We already know that Riley Cooper scored 9.4 standard fantasy points last night. Fitzgerald has failed to exceed that total 4 times, 3 of those with Kevin Kolb as his QB. That means in the 7 games Fitzgerald has played with Kolb, he didn't reach 9.5 points in 42.9% of those games. So if Fitzgerald puts up a 2 catch - 29 yard stinker this Sunday against Dallas and you lose your matchup because you started Fitzgerald over Cooper, you're going to feel even worse if you had any inkling of starting Cooper. Taking a chance with the roster YOU assembled should leave you with no regrets when the season is over because this is the point of playing fantasy football. We spend weeks building a roster that suits the way we individually play the game and if you are unwilling to take a calculated late season risk, why own a player like Riley Cooper when you have a stud like Larry Fitzgerald? We all know that as the fantasy season winds down, matchups do tend to come down to small amounts of points, so we know that every point counts.
You want to start your studs TO YOUR BENEFIT...your studs come with an extra boost of confidence when you start them (because they've typically earned it), but most of the time, the savvy fantasy owner wins a championship because they find that one great lottery ticket type player on the Waiver Wire that they aren't afraid to bump a flat-lining "stud" (see Adrian Peterson, end of 2010) for along with a roster filled with consistency.
Going forward, here are the only players I deem as "unbenchable" under any Non-Injury circumstances:
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Arian Foster (despite the QB situation in Houston)
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte
Wes Welker
Calvin Johnson
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Thursday, December 1, 2011
The Brandon Jackson Theorem
As we head towards the 2011 Fantasy Football Playoffs, one piece of advice has been repetitive amongst the experts of the mainstream fantasy sites (NFL.com, CBS.com, ESPN.com, Yahoo.com): Handcuff your Stud Running Backs. Teams that are heading to the playoffs typically will have (depending on league format) a Top 7 QB, 1-2 Stud Running Backs, 1-2 Stud Wide Receivers or an Elite TE, 2-3 Breakout Players/Impact Rookies, 1 Kicker and 1 Defense. The rest of the roster is filled with capable backups, maybe a 2nd "matchup" type defense, or an emergency QB. I think that roster spots are so valuable in fantasy football that you should consider carefully before handcuffing those stud RBs.
There are a few RB situations in the NFL where the handcuff is a beautiful thing. If you are a Darren McFadden owner, having Michael Bush is the best possible insurance policy in the fantasy game. If you are an Arian Foster owner, sliding Ben Tate in to your lineup due to a Foster injury would leave you feeling confident about the competitiveness of your team. Ryan Mathews owners typically are Mike Tolbert owners. However, if you own Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy, and they were going to miss a playoff week, would you really plug Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown (respectively) in with great confidence? The answer is no. You would be more likely to head to the Free Agent/Waiver Wire in search of a starter on another team or your own bench where you might have stored a Mark Ingram upside-type player. The reason for this is simple: most backups are backups because they are not good enough to handle the load.
This ties in to the title above, The Brandon Jackson theorem. I was the guy who went straight to the Waiver Wire after Ryan Grant's season opening ankle injury in 2010 and grabbed Jackson after he put up 7.5 standard fantasy points in relief of Grant. I immediately plugged him into my lineup behind the notion that he was the starting RB for an elite offense where he wasn't sharing carries with anyone else. He started Week 2 for Green Bay against Buffalo, a bottom 5 rush defense in 2010, and put up an underwhelming 9.9 standard fantasy points. This was a 34-7 Packer win, mind you, where there was a quarter+ of garbage time. He continued off of that effort with 3.9 and 3.4 standard fantasy point performances against a stout Bears defense and the sieve that was the Detroit Lions. He turned in 4 10+ point performances during the 2010 season, 1 in the fantasy playoffs (10.2 pts in Week 15 against New England, a game that Matt Flynn started that most savvy fantasy owners would not have even used a back like Jackson). Thus, The Brandon Jackson Theorem is specifically this: if the handcuff or backup Running Back isn't good, it doesn't matter how many carries he gets or what offense he is tied to.
In using this theorem in the context of 2011, the first name that comes to mind is Jackie Battle. The knee injury suffered by Jamaal Charles in Week 2 against Detroit was the major injury of the 2011 Fantasy Football Season. He was a consensus Top 5 Overall Pick and was set to break out in a major way as the featured back on the right side of the carry split in the Kansas City backfield. KC searched for 2+ games for its workhorse back and finally "found" it in the form of Jackie Battle, an undrafted Special Teamer and the team's 4th Tailback and 5th Running Back when the season started. He "went off" for 119 Yards on 19 carries against Indianapolis in Week 5. He also added 21 receiving yards for a standard fantasy score of 14.0. This remains his highest fantasy output of the season and it happened in a week where no one could possibly have used him. Jackie Battle has received starter's carries in all but 2 games since (he shared the most carries vs. New England in Week 11 and was out carried 13-9 by Thomas Jones vs. Pittsburgh in Week 12). He has gotten into the end zone ONCE!!!! What was the big rush to get him?!? Why were the so-called "fantasy experts" so high on him? Was it his expected workload? Was it his situation? Whatever it was, the excitement was unfounded because it turns out that Jackie Battle just isn't that good.
Before I conclude, the point I make is this: Roster Space is so precious and when you play in a competitive league where managers use their Waiver Priorities effectively, trade regularly, and stay ahead of the curve on players like Victor Cruz, Fred Jackson, & Jimmy Graham (picked as a back up TE in the most important league I play in), you cannot waste your roster space on unusuable handcuffs. If the player isn't good, it is not worth a roster spot despite the workload. Here is a list of players I would consider suitable, ROSTERABLE, RB Handcuffs for Playoff time:
Daniel Thomas, MIA
Joe McKnight or LaDainian Tomlinson (Health?), NYJ
Isaac Redman, PIT
Ben Tate, HOU
Donald Brown, IND
Mike Tolbert, SD
Michael Bush, OAK (the #1 Handcuff in the Game!)
Kendall Hunter, SF
Jason Snelling, ATL
Marion Barber, CHI
Toby Gerhart, MIN
Brandon Jacobs, NYG
There are a few RB situations in the NFL where the handcuff is a beautiful thing. If you are a Darren McFadden owner, having Michael Bush is the best possible insurance policy in the fantasy game. If you are an Arian Foster owner, sliding Ben Tate in to your lineup due to a Foster injury would leave you feeling confident about the competitiveness of your team. Ryan Mathews owners typically are Mike Tolbert owners. However, if you own Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy, and they were going to miss a playoff week, would you really plug Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown (respectively) in with great confidence? The answer is no. You would be more likely to head to the Free Agent/Waiver Wire in search of a starter on another team or your own bench where you might have stored a Mark Ingram upside-type player. The reason for this is simple: most backups are backups because they are not good enough to handle the load.
This ties in to the title above, The Brandon Jackson theorem. I was the guy who went straight to the Waiver Wire after Ryan Grant's season opening ankle injury in 2010 and grabbed Jackson after he put up 7.5 standard fantasy points in relief of Grant. I immediately plugged him into my lineup behind the notion that he was the starting RB for an elite offense where he wasn't sharing carries with anyone else. He started Week 2 for Green Bay against Buffalo, a bottom 5 rush defense in 2010, and put up an underwhelming 9.9 standard fantasy points. This was a 34-7 Packer win, mind you, where there was a quarter+ of garbage time. He continued off of that effort with 3.9 and 3.4 standard fantasy point performances against a stout Bears defense and the sieve that was the Detroit Lions. He turned in 4 10+ point performances during the 2010 season, 1 in the fantasy playoffs (10.2 pts in Week 15 against New England, a game that Matt Flynn started that most savvy fantasy owners would not have even used a back like Jackson). Thus, The Brandon Jackson Theorem is specifically this: if the handcuff or backup Running Back isn't good, it doesn't matter how many carries he gets or what offense he is tied to.
In using this theorem in the context of 2011, the first name that comes to mind is Jackie Battle. The knee injury suffered by Jamaal Charles in Week 2 against Detroit was the major injury of the 2011 Fantasy Football Season. He was a consensus Top 5 Overall Pick and was set to break out in a major way as the featured back on the right side of the carry split in the Kansas City backfield. KC searched for 2+ games for its workhorse back and finally "found" it in the form of Jackie Battle, an undrafted Special Teamer and the team's 4th Tailback and 5th Running Back when the season started. He "went off" for 119 Yards on 19 carries against Indianapolis in Week 5. He also added 21 receiving yards for a standard fantasy score of 14.0. This remains his highest fantasy output of the season and it happened in a week where no one could possibly have used him. Jackie Battle has received starter's carries in all but 2 games since (he shared the most carries vs. New England in Week 11 and was out carried 13-9 by Thomas Jones vs. Pittsburgh in Week 12). He has gotten into the end zone ONCE!!!! What was the big rush to get him?!? Why were the so-called "fantasy experts" so high on him? Was it his expected workload? Was it his situation? Whatever it was, the excitement was unfounded because it turns out that Jackie Battle just isn't that good.
Before I conclude, the point I make is this: Roster Space is so precious and when you play in a competitive league where managers use their Waiver Priorities effectively, trade regularly, and stay ahead of the curve on players like Victor Cruz, Fred Jackson, & Jimmy Graham (picked as a back up TE in the most important league I play in), you cannot waste your roster space on unusuable handcuffs. If the player isn't good, it is not worth a roster spot despite the workload. Here is a list of players I would consider suitable, ROSTERABLE, RB Handcuffs for Playoff time:
Daniel Thomas, MIA
Joe McKnight or LaDainian Tomlinson (Health?), NYJ
Isaac Redman, PIT
Ben Tate, HOU
Donald Brown, IND
Mike Tolbert, SD
Michael Bush, OAK (the #1 Handcuff in the Game!)
Kendall Hunter, SF
Jason Snelling, ATL
Marion Barber, CHI
Toby Gerhart, MIN
Brandon Jacobs, NYG
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