2011 Fantasy Football Playoff Preview

As I write this, Pittsburgh has defeated Cleveland 14-3.  I didn't publish this a day sooner because I figured my analysis wasn't going to help anyone who had players in this game: Start Ben, Mendenhall, Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Pittsburgh's Defense.  Bench Cleveland's entire roster.  In fact, if you have a Cleveland Brown on your roster and you're still alive for the championship, kudos to you.

I will be presenting my playoff preview on a team by team basis with specific players to look out for and to avoid. 

Arizona Cardinals
Player to Look Out For: Andre Roberts.  He is starting to look like a nice safety valve for Kevin Kolb and we know Kolb hasn't been able to consistently hook up with Fitz.  Roberts could potentially be a solid start in deeper formats as a Mid-Range WR3.  You are more than likely starting Fitzgerald if you have him, but Roberts could outperform him during this 3 week span.
Player to Avoid: Kevin Kolb.  I don't need to tell you this, but for those looking for a sneaky matchup play if teams start resting their starters (Aaron Rodgers owners!!), Kolb is not your guy.  He will face three teams that are Top-7 vs QBs.  There are better options.

Atlanta Falcons
Player to Look Out For: Michael Turner.  While the last two weeks have been a bit of a let down, Turner has been solid all season and he has always come to play vs. the rest of the NFC South.  I expect Turner to rush for 375-450 yds and 3-4 TDs during this 3 week span, making him the usual RB1 that he is.
Player to Avoid: Roddy White.  Atlanta should be able to control the games vs. Carolina and Jacksonville with the run (both teams are Top-12 vs WR) and New Orleans will roll coverage towards White in that Week 16 tilt.  White is still someone that will start on many rosters, but don't expect overly lofty totals.  150-200 yds and 0-1 TDs is my gut feeling.

Baltimore Ravens
Player to Look Out For: Ray Rice.  This is why you used a first round pick on Ray Rice.  It is wildly obvious to say that the Ravens best fantasy option is a player to look out for, but it cannot be overstated.  Ray Rice is playing to get paid in 2012 and he is playing to get Baltimore a home playoff game and a first round bye.  Start this man with confidence and expect him to do exactly what he does...125-150 yds per game rushing and receiving along with 4-5 TDs over this three game stretch.  He will be leaned on.
Player to Avoid: Torrey Smith.  I think the league has caught on to what Baltimore has been trying to do with this rookie.  Lee Evans is also back in the fold.  If 4-5 points is all you need out of your WR3, than Torrey Smith is your man.  Those looking for a big splash from their WR3 should look elsewhere.

Buffalo Bills
Player to Look Out For: Ryan Fitzpatrick.  With Buffalo fading away from playoff contention after the loss of Fred Jackson, this offense has no choice but to continue to lean on the Harvard Grad.  With matchups against three teams who are Bottom-11 vs QBs, Fitzpatrick should produce similarly to the torrid start he got off to in September.
Player to Avoid: Any RB not named CJ Spiller.  Spiller has received 19.5 touches per game since Jackson went on IR.  Tashard choice has a total of 19 yards in 2 games.  Don't screw around here. 

Carolina Panthers
Player to Look Out For: Steve Smith.  Obviously.  This has been the #1 target on the team all season, but with 3 games of 10 fantasy points or less (standard scoring), there is no doubt owners have felt the need to scramble for other options.  I think Smith is a Top 5 WR over this 3 week span, with 400-425 yds and 4-5 TDs being my prediction for how he rewards patient owners.
Player to Avoid: Stewart and Williams.  There is never any tell that will lead you to know which of these two is going to get more work on a given week.  Cam steals everything at the goal line.  If you don't have better options than these two, you probably aren't going to hang around very long as is. 

Chicago Bears
Player to Look Out For: Marion Barber.  If Forte is indeed out the next 2-3 weeks, Barber should get the bulk of the carries and the goal line work.  Tough to count on him for sure, but if you're this desperate, there are worse options.
Player to Avoid: All WRs.  As long as Caleb Hanie is the QB, defenses with key on Johnny Knox, which has proven to be Hanie's #1 target.  You absolutely cannot trust any Bears WR in a playoff week.

Cincinnati Bengals
Player to Look Out For: Cedric Benson.  Savvy owners who drafted and stashed Benson all season will reap the benefits during Weeks 15 & 16.  Matchups with the uber-soft Rams and Cardinals await and Benson should be able to exploit these favorable matchups.  At the very least, the Bengals should be in control of those games and Benson should get plenty of opportunities.  Plug CedBen in with confidence.
Player to Avoid: Any WR not named AJ Green.  In my personal (and hopeful) opinion, I think AJ is set to explode during the last 4 weeks of this season.  With the exception of one matchup vs. San Francisco, AJ has caught a TD or gone for at least 83 yds receiving.  Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell will factor into the real life result of each game, but I don't think either of them are fantasy relevant.

Cleveland Browns
Player to Look Out For: None
Player to Avoid: All.  No explanation needed for either.

Dallas Cowboys
Player to Look Out For: Miles Austin.  He's been hurt all season.  For some reason (more gut than anything else), I feel like Austin will be the most productive Dallas WR over the fantasy playoff run. 
Player to Avoid: DeMarco Murray.  I feel like as long as Jerry Jones is making personnel decisions for the Cowboys, Felix Jones will always have a job.  Murray's numbers are on the way down (to be fair, his introduction to the fantasy world set the bar extremely high for him), and with Jones healthy and back in the mix for 8-10 touches, I feel like Murray is no better than a flex option, despite fantastic matchups with Tampa Bay and Philly.

Denver Broncos
Player to Look Out For: Demaryius Thomas.  Tebow really seems to like this guy and he has absolute stud potential just by looking at him.  He has tasty matchups with New England and Buffalo on the horizon as well, making him a super sleeper candidate.
Player to Avoid: Tim Tebow.  The Bears have shown the ability to contain mobile QBs (ask Michael Vick).  The Patriots will find some devious scheme to shut Tebow down.  If Tebow somehow survives to Week 16, Buffalo presents a slightly easier matchup, but if you trust Tebow in Weeks 14 and 15, you might not make it this far.

Detroit Lions
Player to Look Out For: Matthew Stafford.  If you have Stafford, you're rolling with him, but owners who do not have him will hope to avoid facing him.  Stafford has arguably the easiest schedule remaining for QBs (Minnesota, @Oakland, & San Diego, all Bottom-10 vs. QBs) and he appears to be healthy and prepared to turn Detroit out of the mini-slump they are currently in. 
Player to Avoid: None.  Here's why: you likely have better options than Nate Burleson or Titus Young, but if you need either of these two for any reason, there is upside with the friendly QB matchup and 2 home games.  If you own Kevin Smith, you can play him with a greater than 50% level of confidence if he is active.  If Smith is out, you can play Maurice Morris in your flex.

Green Bay Packers
Player to Look Out For: Brandon Saine.  Someone has to play RB for the Packers.  Why not this guy?  He is shifty and strong.  He can catch and has great vision on screen plays.  Green Bay isn't going to line up and smash it up the middle for 60 minutes.  I hope this guy gets a chance do be productive because Grant has shown nothing and Starks can't seem to stay healthy.
Player to Avoid: Grant and Starks.  Every member of the Green Bay passing attack has upside and Rodgers & Co. have proven that they will throw and throw and throw until you submit.  John Kuhn gets more goal line work than either of these guys.  There are better options.

Houston Texans
Player to Look Out For: Ben Tate.  Houston is approaching their first division title and currently has a 2 game lead on Tennessee.  TJ Yates is not going to be counted on to win games for this team.  Tate and Foster should continue to pile up the carries as their defense continues to be one of the best in football.  Tate is fresh and will take advantage of 8-12 touches per game.
Player to Avoid: Andre Johnson.  The QB situation is bad.  The guy can't seem to stay healthy.  I'm not suggesting you drop the guy, but since he's been injured virtually all season, I have to believe you've figured out another option by now.  Play Andre at your own risk if he is active, but temper your expectations.

Indianapolis Colts
Player to Look Out For: Pierre Garcon.  Pierre Garcon has more garbage points than any other WR in football this year.  It will continue.  Dan Orlovsky has proven that he can operate comfortably against a prevent defense and he should be able to continue to find Pierre Garcon for backdoor covers for the remainder of the season.
Player to Avoid: Colts RBs.  The schedule just doesn't show me any opportunity to get the run game going.  Baltimore and Houston are Top-4 against RBs and Tennessee is a better football team this year.  If you were holding Indy RBs for any reason, now is the time to relinquish.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Player to Look Out For: MJD.  Why?  Because he's the only player on this team with talent.
Player to Avoid: Everyone else.  Why?  Because no one else has talent.

Kansas City Chiefs
Player to Look Out For: None.  As long as Tyler Palko is the QB, all Chiefs not named Dwayne Bowe should be unrostered.  And even Bowe should be on your bench.
Player to Avoid: All of them.  As long as Tyler Palko is the QB, all Chiefs not named Dwayne Bowe should be unrostered. And even Bowe should be on your bench.

Miami Dolphins
Player to Look Out For: Daniel Thomas.  I really like his upside against Philly, Buffalo, & New England, all of which have been extremely generous against RBs this year.  With Reggie Bush set to fade away any minute, Thomas, now healthy, is a solid backup who can carry the load if given the chance.
Player to Avoid: Matt Moore.  I'm getting a little tired of hearing about Matt Moore from the Fantasy "Experts".  Frankly, he is an underwhelming fantasy option who runs a little, hasn't hit 300 yds passing yet, and has an untalented group of WRs to throw to (remove Brandon Marshall).  Again, there are better options than this guy.

Minnesota Vikings
Player to Look Out For: Devin Aromashodu.  Michael Jenkins is on IR.  Percy Harvin is due for a migraine any second now, not to mention he tore a ligament in his finger at practice.  Aromashodu led the NFL in targets in Week 13 with 15.  This guy has proven in the past (2 years ago) that he can be a threat down the stretch, especially since Minnesota figures to be behind in the next two (@ Detroit, vs. New Orleans) and not playing for anything in Week 16 (@ Washington).  I expect that Aromashodu can produce high upside WR3 numbers.
Player to Avoid: Christian Ponder.  There are just so many other options.  He is supposedly hurt now (Hip Pointer) and there is so much going against Minnesota as it is.  They may decide to pack in the rookie and let Joe Webb (who I thought deserved a chance before Ponder in Week 6) play out the string.

New England Patriots
Player to Look Out For: Stevan Ridley.  For whatever reason, New England decided that they didn't want to put the Colts away in Week 13 by running the ball.  When they did run in that game, Ridley got the most carries.  The Patriots will have to turn to someone to run the ball and I feel like Ridley is primed to be that guy.  (**Side Note: I really wanted to say Chad Ochocinco here, but I didn't have the stones.  If he does anything, I want credit for it.**)
Player to Avoid: BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  If this guy can't get 15 carries with a 31-3 lead at home against Indy, I don't know if I can trust him at any point going forward.  This offense is based on the pass, and owners should tread carefully with any New England RB.  I think the Law Firm will be a major factor in the real NFL Playoffs, but for the remainder of this season, use him only in the deepest of holes.

New Orleans Saints
Player to Look Out For: Robert Meachem.  This guy has shown great chemistry with Drew Brees in the past and I like the role he played in the win over Detroit in Week 13.  Proceed with caution when playing any Saints WR not named Colston, but Meachem could be a strong play in a strong QB matchup for Brees vs. Minnesota and against a weak Atlanta secondary.
Player to Avoid: Mark Ingram.  People who have been waiting around for Ingram to finally be the workhorse the Saints hoped to be getting when they drafted him will be sorely disappointed in this playoff season.  Ingram is currently suffering from Turf Toe and is involved in a 3 man backfield committee.  Not the best scenario when planning a playoff roster.

New York Giants
Player to Look Out For: Hakeem Nicks.  Coverage is starting to roll towards Victor Cruz and Nicks is too talented to not take advantage.
Player to Avoid: Ahmad Bradshaw.  I honestly don't understand how physically tough someone has to be to play RB in the NFL with a broken foot.  To me, it doesn't translate to Fantasy Stud.

New York Jets
Player to Look Out For: Plaxico Burress.  Mark Sanchez really seems to be looking for this guy and with matchups coming up against Philadelphia (a potential landing spot this previous offseason) and the Giants (his former team), I can see some inspired play and big numbers in the very near future.
Player to Avoid: LaDainian Tomlinson.  I think this guy is a solid role player, but if Shonn Greene goes down at any point, I would expect Joe McKnight to be the more impactful handcuff.  LT can hold down a 10-12 touch workload and may grab some goal line work from time to time, but I wouldn't put any eggs in his basket.

Oakland Raiders
Player to Look Out For: Michael Bush.  Even when Run-DMC returns, I expect that Bush has done enough the last 6 games (despite the stinker against Miami) to have earned himself a significant chunk of the workload.  Bush offers the Raiders the opportunity to use McFadden sparingly, which will increase his effectiveness.  Bush has RB2 value.
Player to Avoid: Oakland WRs.  None of them are healthy in back to back weeks.  When one of them blows up for monster points, they disappear the next week, get hurt, and restart the process on the waiver wire.  Don't waste your time this deep into the season.

Philadelphia Eagles
Player to Look Out For: Michael Vick.  This dude signed a contract worth $100,000,000+.  Do you see all those zeros?  He will start this weekend against Miami and for the remainder of the season, provided he stays healthy.  I expect him to return to his elite form, now that the pressure is off the Eagles to be "The Dream Team".  Owners who were patient with Vick through the crap sandwich he served up all season will be rewarded this playoff season.
Player to Avoid: Jeremy Maclin.  The preseason illness and the cavalcade of injuries he is trying to come back from now just make him so unattractive to me.  I also think DeSean Jackson will turn this train wreck around and that Riley Cooper has carved out a nice little niche for this team.  Maclin might be the odd man out.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Player to Look Out For: Antonio Brown.  He went off for 151 yds and a score tonight on 5 catches (granted he broke a 79 yarder with some sick twists and turns).  His targets are steady and his role in the offense continues to grow.  You can roll Brown out as a WR2 from here on out.  I would project Brown as a Top-15 WR from here on out.
Player to Avoid: Rashard Mendenhall.  Yes, I see that Week 16 matchup with St. Louis.  If you remove the 146 yd performance against Jacksonville in Week 6, Mendenhall has not eclipsed 71 yds once this season.  The Week 15 matchup with San Francisco is not exactly confidence inducing.  Expect low end RB2 numbers.

San Diego Chargers
Player to Look Out For: Malcom Floyd.  If this guy can stay healthy, he looks to be the missing piece to the puzzle.  The Chargers were 0-4 without Floyd in the lineup.  He averages 22.1 yds per catch.  This guy just brings it all together for this offense.  Play him as a high end WR3/low end WR2 with confidence.
Player to Avoid: Mike Tolbert.  Ryan Mathews is being given every opportunity to be the man on every down and Tolbert's workload is sparatic.  He did score a TD in Week 13, but I feel like that will be his last.  Without TDs or a Mathews injury, Tolbert has no value in a playoff starting lineup.

San Francisco
Player to Look Out For: Michael Crabtree.  He is on the fantasy football All-Time Disappointment Team, but he has an opportunity to be part of something great with this 49ers team.  He is the only "elite" target Alex Smith has.  He has two beatable matchups (Pittsburgh will be tough, but San Fran will be at home).  If not now, when?
Player to Avoid: Frank Gore.  You can't not start Gore if you own him and he's active.  When you bench an active Frank Gore, he goes for 150 and 2 scores.  His upside is wildly low for a playoff stretch.  This week's matchup with Arizona looks appealing, but it really isn't.  Pittsburgh and Seattle are formidable run defenses.  It could be tough sledding for anyone depending alot on Frank Gore this postseason.

Seattle Seahawks
Player to Look Out For: Marshawn Lynch.  He's the only one worth a damn.
Player to Avoid: The rest of Seattle's Offense.  Why?  Marshawn Lynch is the only one worth a damn.

St. Louis Rams
Player to Look Out For: As long as the QB situation is murked by injuries, I can't recommend starting any Rams.
Player to Avoid: Until Sam Bradford is 100% behind center, you can't start any Ram with confidence.  You can start Jackson and Lloyd, but confidence is not included.

Tampa Bay
Player to Look Out For: Mike Williams.  He will do everything possible to rectify his "bust" label.  With Freeman back at the helm and a friendly finish to the season, I like Williams to post strong WR2 numbers.  Plug him back in to those lineups!
Player to Avoid: LeGarrette Blount.  It is tough to avoid this guy, but after his 19 yard stinker against the worst fantasy run defense (Carolina), I am backing off any high expectations I had for Blount.  Roll with him as necessary, but temper your expectations to limit further disappointments.

Tennessee Titans
Player to Look Out For: Damian Williams.  I love this guy.  He is my Super Sleeper for the rest of the season.  The schedule is set up for strong performances.  Chris Johnson is seemingly back and will take alot of every other team's attention.  Single coverage awaits.  Williams is a favorite target of Hasselbeck and as long as Tennessee stays in the playoff hunt, Locker stays benched.  My bold prediction for Williams in Weeks 14-16: 250-275 yds, 4 TDs.
Player to Avoid: Anyone not named Chris Johnson or Damian Williams.  It's just not a wise idea to roll out any other Titan skill position players.  Less is more.

Washington Redskins
Player to Look Out For: Roy Helu.  This is Dominic Rhodes from 2008.  This is Jamaal Charles and Jerome Harrison from 2009.  This is Peyton Hillis from 2010.  Helu is this year's lotto ticket.  Plug him in and leave him there.  Low End RB1 numbers can be expected.  Shanahanigans are done.
Player to Avoid: Rex Grossman.  I don't care how juicy the schedule is.  If you are using Rex in your fantasy playoffs, you better have lost Schaub and Cutler and be in a 14 man league.  In 10 or 12 man leagues, there is too much depth at the position to trust a turnover machine like Rex.  He also lost his starting TE and LT to suspension.