When you assemble your lineup on a weekly basis, you are trying to maximize points at every position. There are certain positions in your weekly lineup where there is absolutely no way to correctly prognosticate an expected point total, and the most troublesome spot in the weekly lineup is the kicker spot. You can do all the research in the world and still end up with an inexplicable 5 points or less. If you pick up a kicker who plays for a team that scores 5 TDs in a game, you're only getting 5 lousy points. Their team succeeded greatly, and you got the raw end of the deal. If you play in a public league, there isn't much you can do about this. You just have to draft or pick up the best possible option and hope that the offense they are tied to stalls repeatedly on the right side of the 50. Many of us, however, play in customized private leagues, where scoring is determined by your league's commissioner and can be toggled to add points per reception, bonus points for 100 yard performances, etc. These leagues also tend to be our most important as far as bragging rights, competition and usually have a cash prize or trophy handed to the winner at the end of the season.
Last week (between Weeks 14 & 15), as I have done every season since starting my league of record, I ask the other owners in my league if there are any changes they would like to see made to improve the quality of our league. Thus far, in 5 seasons, we hadn't changed any of the formatting in our league. I posed this question to my fellow owners and put the issue to a vote: would you like to eliminate the kicker position and add another position player (WR/TE flex)? I told the owners that the majority would win and the first 5 owners who got back to me were in favor of making this change. Here's why I proposed the change: With only 8 owners and 15 total roster spots, I wanted to find a way to add depth to the league without adding other owners. We all agreed before the season that we would be extending our rosters to 16 spots for the 2013 season. I felt that if you're going to get a 5 or 6 point performance on your roster, wouldn't you prefer to have some percentage of a chance that the player could also score a TD? Also, kickers in our league cannot score negative points like the regular position players or defenses. So we made it official...next season our league expands to 16 roster spots from 15 and the Kicker position is eliminated with a WR/TE flex position to be added. Here are some ways to customize your league that I think commissioners should consider:
1) Eliminating Kickers
In standard format leagues where kickers are awarded 3 points for FGs of 39 yards or less, 4 points for FGs of 40-49 yards, 5 points for FGs of 50+ yards and 1 point for PATs, the top kicker is Stephen Gostkowski at 150 points. In 14 games, that works out to an average of 10.71 ppg. The separation in points from the Top Ranked Kicker to the 20th Ranked Kicker is 45 points, or 3.21 ppg over 14 games. To offer some comparison, there are no TEs who have scored over 136 fantasy points, which means every player in the group averages less than 10 ppg, but in the Top 20, 19 of the 20 players have scored 3 TDs or more with the exception being Jason Witten, who makes up for his lack of TDs by leading the position with 923 receiving yards. 8 WRs, 13 RBs, & 25 QBs have amassed 150 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. The point is this: in fantasy football, who the heck wants to cheer for FGs? We're out there cheering for TDs, yardage and big plays. Cheering for drives to stall should be limited to defenses. I also feel that the Kicker position is way too highly streamable. In 14 weeks of play, I used 13 different kickers in my league of record. There are owners that only use 1-2 kickers in a season, but I prefer to scrutinize the performance of each position and Kicker is the only spot you can change on a weekly basis and have the same percentage of success week to week. Eliminating the hours of research on a position we are prepared to accept 7-8 points from is hours that could be used finding better sleepers and using our roster space for players who can score more points with a chance at scoring TDs.
2) Toggle your Defensive Scoring
In most standard scoring leagues, defenses earn 10 points for a shutout, 7 points for allowing 1-6 points, 4 points for allowing 7-13 points, 1 point for allowing 14-20 points, 0 points for allowing 21-27 points, -1 point for allowing 28-34 points & -4 points for allowing 35 or more points. The best scoring defenses in the NFL (San Francisco & Seattle) allow 15.6 ppg (1 fantasy point) and the worst scoring defenses in the NFL (Buffalo & Oakland) allow 28.7 ppg (-1 fantasy points). I feel two specific things need to change with this scoring: teams need to be rewarded with more fantasy points for allowing less points and the ranges need to be changed by 1 point. For example, when a team gives up an offensive TD, their defensive score goes from 10 to 7 to 4 on the completion of the PAT. If a team goes out and wins 35-7 and the TD they gave up was a garbage time TD at the end of the game, why is the defense punished by losing 6 points? Sacks, Fumbles, INTs, Blocked Kicks and Defensive TDs (while scored fairly) are so difficult to accumulate at the professional level that holding your opponent to 20 or less points should make up some of that difference. I think the scoring ranges should be Shutout, 1-7, 8-14, 15-21, 22-28 & 29+. If there are ways to toggle your scoring ranges, think about doing it. It will change the way defenses are drafted and streamed.
3) Play in a League with some sort of Flex
By now, most custom leagues have a flex of some sort, whether it's RB/WR, WR/TE, or RB/WR/TE. It gives you the flexibility to play the extra player that might have been causing you some distress from the Sit/Start standpoint and also emphasizes the need for roster depth and stability. With a flex as part of your lineup, you have to build a full roster that is strong enough to navigate the bye weeks and ultra stressful playoff weeks rather than assembling just a weekly starting lineup. Also, a flex position cannot and should not be some throw away guy. I hear too many "Experts" say things like "I would use him, but only in a flex" as if the starting roster spot wasn't as important as the rest. The flex position allows you to draft the extra RB in the early rounds because you know you're going to get to play him on a weekly basis. It allows you to stash players that you might want to use as a 1-week matchup start that doesn't affect your core 3 WR, 2 RB groupings. If you have a flex that allows you to play a 2nd TE, owners who were savvy enough to own Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski last year before they individually blew up had the ability to play both without making that tricky roster decision. The point is this: if you're playing in a league with a standard offensive set-up (1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE) and you're drafting 16-18 roster spots, you're wasting a lot of space with stash players and you're forced to make overly difficult decisions every week.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Decision Making Tool for the Fantasy Sports Fanatic looking for Non-Obvious Solutions for Long Term Fantasy Sports Success.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Breaking Up is Hard to Do
In my league of record, we play a keeper format. 6 of our 8 owners make the playoffs, and those owners are rewarded with keeping 1 player off their final roster acting as their first round pick in the following year's draft. Because this player acts as a first round pick, our owners are pressed with making the decision to keep their best possible player who represents maximum first round value. After missing the playoffs in 2009, I drafted 1st overall in 2010 and I selected Aaron Rodgers, as he was the #1 overall scorer in our format (6 pt passing TDs, non-PPR) and the 6 keepers in that draft included 4 of the best RBs from the 2009 season. Since that time, I have made the playoffs in every season and at the end of each of those seasons, I kept Aaron Rodgers. I built my teams around him and he didn't disappoint, as he remained the #1 overall point scorer in 2010 and 2011. As I head into the 2013 season after a disappointing 1st round playoff departure, I have already made the decision that Rodgers will not be my keeper going forward. The reason for this "divorce" is simple: I am 0-3 in the playoffs (since winning the inaugural league championship in 2008) with Rodgers at the helm and my losses are directly tied to his performance. In 2010, his 2.34 point, injury shortened performace against Detroit got me eliminated without much of a fight. In 2011, the Packers' lone loss of the regular season came in Kansas City, which also was my 1st playoff game, and Rodgers put up a season low 18.6 fantasy points, which was 3.8% of his total scoring for the year. Had Rodgers put up 1/16 (6.25%) of his total points in this game, he would have been worth 30.46 points. I still would have lost the matchup in the end, but when you get to the playoffs, you need your studs to perform. The 14.12 points he put up last week against Detroit wasn't nearly enough to help my team advance.
The secondary reason for letting go of Rodgers is to change the way in which I build my team. With Rodgers as my keeper and knowing that I was keeping him once the season is over, I have allowed every other player on my team over the last 3 years to become an interchangeable part. Looking back at my final rosters over these seasons, I always built my team around Rodgers based on upside players. These players then failed come playoff time because a great matchup fizzled out. I have made the decision to cut ties with Rodgers and build my team around RB strength and roster stability, regardless of matchups. Here are some strategies for keeper selection:
1) Keep an RB
The RB position is so top heavy right now. There are currently 11 RBs who have 160 or more standard fantasy points (12.3 ppg). The drop from 11 to 12 is 21.1 points (1.6 ppg) and the range of drop off from each player to the next from that spot is larger than that of the Top 11. If you have an opportunity to keep a player that is AT MINIMUM going to get you 12.3 ppg as your RB1, you need to keep them. QBs are going to score, and finding one in a later round is going to be way easier than locating an elite RB. Factoring in my league's scoring (6 pt passing TDs), there are 21 QBs over 200 fantasy points with only 3 RBs and no WRs over that total.
2) Slot your Keeper Correctly
Whomever you decide to keep, that player needs to be your QB1, RB1 or WR1. You can't keep a player who is currently a 2 and expect them to evolve into a 1 through the course of an offseason. You need to keep players that can be built around, not players who are part of the plan. For instance, if you have a roster where you're selecting a keeper from Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris, Peterson needs to be the keeper not because he's a cyborg and easily the best football player on the planet, but because he is a clear cut RB1 and can be built around. If you keep Richardson or Morris due to their upside, they become part of a plan rather than the focal point. Your keeper needs to be someone that will be the identity of your team. If you keep a Peterson-type player, your per round strategy changes because you can go out and fill needs at other positions earlier and more often because you know your RB position is stabilized by Peterson. If Richardson is your keeper out of this group due to his upside, you probably are going to have to spend another early round pick on an RB to shore up the position, which probably prevents you from grabbing a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green type in the early rounds. All of the RBs above are Top 10 scorers in standard formats, but the level of trust in each player is different when it comes to being an RB1.
3) Have a Plan of Action once you've identified your Keeper
I am parting ways with Aaron Rodgers after this season and I am leaning towards keeping Ray Rice. My plan of action with Rice as my keeper is to then spend my next pick on another RB to have the best RB group in the league. By releasing Rodgers back into the available player pool, I allow another owner to select him, leaving more available RB options to slide to my position on the draft board. I will be able to get an attractive, every week starting QB in Rounds 3-5 and while I might not have as good of a QB as who I'm facing on a week to week basis, that same opponent is not going to have a better RB group than me. You can win with much more regularity if you have stronger position groupings than your opponents and while that might seem like an obvious statement, look at it this way: based on Yahoo Point Projections, I was the favorite to win EVERY MATCHUP this season because Aaron Rodgers had such a higher projected score than every other player. His inflated projection made the rest of my team look better because I was the projected favorite to win. I fell short of projections 13 out of 14 weeks this season and finished 7-7 (including playoffs). I find that projections are truer when your team has more balance. Having inflated projected scores only skews what you're actually looking at and hides what should be glaring weaknesses. My RB corp at the end of this season was Ray Rice and Mikel Leshoure. That's it. I was flexing a 4th WR come playoff time because this season was a year to hoard RBs more than I've ever seen. Now imagine if I had Rice paired with a CJ Spiller or Doug Martin type...whoever my QB is, my projections are more likely to be accurate when it's all said and done because of the balance of a position group. My plan next year to build stronger position groups at the expense of THE elite QB can only be executed by allowing other owners to scoop up the presumed "elite" QBs and build my roster based on RB and WR strength.
I am currently developing a rankings system that I plan to unveil before preseason next year. This rankings system will be unlike those you find on your league's homepage or on the other fantasy football sites. My plan is to take more than just matchups and name recognition into account. I plan on changing the game for the better...I'm tired of watching the "Experts" put out the same old rankings where you can always predict who the top names are in each position group only to watch them fall into the middle of the pack. I am going to be ahead of the curve. I am going to find those players whose points we chase on the Waiver Wire the weeks after they happen. I am going to find the Danario Alexanders and Cecil Shorts before they break out on the wire. I hope you join me in this chase.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
The secondary reason for letting go of Rodgers is to change the way in which I build my team. With Rodgers as my keeper and knowing that I was keeping him once the season is over, I have allowed every other player on my team over the last 3 years to become an interchangeable part. Looking back at my final rosters over these seasons, I always built my team around Rodgers based on upside players. These players then failed come playoff time because a great matchup fizzled out. I have made the decision to cut ties with Rodgers and build my team around RB strength and roster stability, regardless of matchups. Here are some strategies for keeper selection:
1) Keep an RB
The RB position is so top heavy right now. There are currently 11 RBs who have 160 or more standard fantasy points (12.3 ppg). The drop from 11 to 12 is 21.1 points (1.6 ppg) and the range of drop off from each player to the next from that spot is larger than that of the Top 11. If you have an opportunity to keep a player that is AT MINIMUM going to get you 12.3 ppg as your RB1, you need to keep them. QBs are going to score, and finding one in a later round is going to be way easier than locating an elite RB. Factoring in my league's scoring (6 pt passing TDs), there are 21 QBs over 200 fantasy points with only 3 RBs and no WRs over that total.
2) Slot your Keeper Correctly
Whomever you decide to keep, that player needs to be your QB1, RB1 or WR1. You can't keep a player who is currently a 2 and expect them to evolve into a 1 through the course of an offseason. You need to keep players that can be built around, not players who are part of the plan. For instance, if you have a roster where you're selecting a keeper from Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris, Peterson needs to be the keeper not because he's a cyborg and easily the best football player on the planet, but because he is a clear cut RB1 and can be built around. If you keep Richardson or Morris due to their upside, they become part of a plan rather than the focal point. Your keeper needs to be someone that will be the identity of your team. If you keep a Peterson-type player, your per round strategy changes because you can go out and fill needs at other positions earlier and more often because you know your RB position is stabilized by Peterson. If Richardson is your keeper out of this group due to his upside, you probably are going to have to spend another early round pick on an RB to shore up the position, which probably prevents you from grabbing a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green type in the early rounds. All of the RBs above are Top 10 scorers in standard formats, but the level of trust in each player is different when it comes to being an RB1.
3) Have a Plan of Action once you've identified your Keeper
I am parting ways with Aaron Rodgers after this season and I am leaning towards keeping Ray Rice. My plan of action with Rice as my keeper is to then spend my next pick on another RB to have the best RB group in the league. By releasing Rodgers back into the available player pool, I allow another owner to select him, leaving more available RB options to slide to my position on the draft board. I will be able to get an attractive, every week starting QB in Rounds 3-5 and while I might not have as good of a QB as who I'm facing on a week to week basis, that same opponent is not going to have a better RB group than me. You can win with much more regularity if you have stronger position groupings than your opponents and while that might seem like an obvious statement, look at it this way: based on Yahoo Point Projections, I was the favorite to win EVERY MATCHUP this season because Aaron Rodgers had such a higher projected score than every other player. His inflated projection made the rest of my team look better because I was the projected favorite to win. I fell short of projections 13 out of 14 weeks this season and finished 7-7 (including playoffs). I find that projections are truer when your team has more balance. Having inflated projected scores only skews what you're actually looking at and hides what should be glaring weaknesses. My RB corp at the end of this season was Ray Rice and Mikel Leshoure. That's it. I was flexing a 4th WR come playoff time because this season was a year to hoard RBs more than I've ever seen. Now imagine if I had Rice paired with a CJ Spiller or Doug Martin type...whoever my QB is, my projections are more likely to be accurate when it's all said and done because of the balance of a position group. My plan next year to build stronger position groups at the expense of THE elite QB can only be executed by allowing other owners to scoop up the presumed "elite" QBs and build my roster based on RB and WR strength.
I am currently developing a rankings system that I plan to unveil before preseason next year. This rankings system will be unlike those you find on your league's homepage or on the other fantasy football sites. My plan is to take more than just matchups and name recognition into account. I plan on changing the game for the better...I'm tired of watching the "Experts" put out the same old rankings where you can always predict who the top names are in each position group only to watch them fall into the middle of the pack. I am going to be ahead of the curve. I am going to find those players whose points we chase on the Waiver Wire the weeks after they happen. I am going to find the Danario Alexanders and Cecil Shorts before they break out on the wire. I hope you join me in this chase.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Your Fantasy Lottery Tickets
Any story of Fantasy Football glory typically includes a chapter on hitting gold on the Waiver Wire. We all scrutinize and deliberate over who to take in our drafts in August, but as a season moves along, we tend to find that someone we never thought of in the preseason is leading our teams to the fantasy promised land. Here are a few players who were either not drafted or became after thoughts that I think can lead teams to championships in the next few weeks:
Justin Blackmon & Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
It is extremely likely that Blackmon was drafted in many formats, as he was a Top 10 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and came into the league with a high pedigree. My assumption, however, is that after his 6th straight game of less than 5 fantasy points, he was probably dropped in many formats, if not sooner. Cecil Shorts was probably not drafted at all, let alone known by many fantasy players. He did make some major plays in Week 1 & 3, but those big time performances were surrounded by a combined 0.8 points in Weeks 2 & 4. Shorts really put himself on the map with his Week 8 game against Green Bay, where for the first time, he put up 100 yards receiving and amassed 10 fantasy points without the aide of a fluke long TD. He was added minimally in most formats at that point, and minus his 5.6 points against Detroit in Week 9, he has gone for at least 80 yards and a TD in each game since. Chad Henne's entrance into the Jacksonville lineup along with massive issues with the Jaguars' running game has made this duo of receivers viable fantasy starters over the past 2 weeks and a matchup with Buffalo this week along with fantasy playoff matchups with the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots make these receivers top 25 plays during the most important stretch of the fantasy season. I own Shorts and Blackmon in different formats and I will be using them with confidence for the duration of my fantasy seasons.
Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions
Had it not been for a massive ACL blowout during his final season at Oklahoma, Broyles would have likely been a high 2nd or late 1st round pick. Broyles was a huge playmaker in college and was on pace to challenge Justin Blackmon for many of the postseason awards Blackmon won with ease when Broyles got hurt. Broyles had 1 total target over the 1st 5 games of the season and was firmly buried on the Lions' depth chart behind Nate Burleson and Titus Young. Broyles made his first impactful performance during the Lions' Monday Night loss to the Bears in Week 7, filling in for the since IR'd Burleson and receiving 4 targets, good for 3 catches, 51 yards and a late TD. He also scored the following week against Seattle and fantasy owners started to take notice. He disappeared the next 3 weeks, although he did catch every one of his 9 targets during those 3 weeks as Titus Young really started to blow up. The week prior to Thanksgiving, however, really opened the door for Broyles as Titus Young was deactivated 3 days before the Lions-Texans clash and Broyles was named the starter opposite Calvin Johnson. Broyles responded with 6 catches on a whopping 12 targets for 126 yards. He also had a 20+ yard TD swatted out of his hands early in the 1st quarter, meaning his game could have been a whole lot larger. With Young firmly in Jim Schwartz's doghouse, Broyles is set up for success in an elite passing offense. With a shootout-type schedule on tap in the fantasy playoffs (@GB, @AZ & ATL), I expect Broyles to continue to see bulk targets and be a major factor. Start him as a WR3 without question.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
This one comes with a disclaimer, because if Kaepernick continues to be SF's starting QB, he is a dangerous fantasy option and a likely Top 10 play in every format. It appears to me that Jim Harbaugh is going to allow the QB issue to be a weekly story and as long as the 49ers keep winning, I can't see him changing back to Alex Smith, barring injury. Kaepernick possesses a big time arm, great pocket awareness, and elite scrambling ability. He torched the Bears in his starting debut 2 weeks ago which is no easy task, as the Bears allow the fewest fantasy points to QBs. He was adequate against New Orleans, completing 64% of his passes for 231 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, and 27 yards rushing. Remember what Tim Tebow was a few years ago when he burst onto the fantasy scene? Imagine if Tebow could actually throw...and you have Kaepernick. He is an elite running option, completely capable of moving the chains via his legs if coverage takes away his WRs. Frank Gore has had a fantastic season and most teams will dare San Fran to let Kaepernick beat them. His toughest remaining matchup is in Seattle Week 16. If you've lost Ben Roethlisberger or Michael Vick, Kaepernick is a more than suitable replacement and likely should be your starter when either of those two return. He faces St. Louis this week and has matchups with Miami and New England on tap, both of which have allowed passing games to flourish. I'm not starting this guy over your Rodgers, Brees and Brady types, but if you're frustrated with Eli Manning or getting impatient with Matt Ryan's turnover issues, Kaepernick may be a great flier for your playoff push.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins
Garcon was drafted in almost every format this past August and his Week 1 showing in New Orleans made owners feel like Albert Einstein for using a late round pick on the 5th year receiver. Then he got hurt...and stayed hurt. He missed 6 of the next 9 games and the 3 games he played, he was a total non-factor, totalling 7 catches for 49 yards. Most owners probably dropped him midseason, as it looked like he probably wasn't going to be a contributor in any capacity. Then Thanksgiving Day happened. He broke out for 4 catches, 86 yards and a TD, including an absolutely awesome 59 yard scamper for 6 in which he hand fought 3 Cowboys defenders and showed great burst. He has said that while he is still in a great deal of pain, the pain is now "numb", and no longer a factor in keeping him off the field. With RGIII destroying NFL defenses, you absolutely have to have his #1 target in tow for the playoff run. He is probably no longer available after his performance last Thursday, but I feel Garcon can be a reliable WR2 if he can continue to manage his pain. I will say this: if there is any inkling that his injury has resurfaced as a problem and you have better options, don't take the risk. I'm using him this week in hopes of clinching a playoff spot in my league of record and I'm not hesitating to do so.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Justin Blackmon & Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
It is extremely likely that Blackmon was drafted in many formats, as he was a Top 10 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and came into the league with a high pedigree. My assumption, however, is that after his 6th straight game of less than 5 fantasy points, he was probably dropped in many formats, if not sooner. Cecil Shorts was probably not drafted at all, let alone known by many fantasy players. He did make some major plays in Week 1 & 3, but those big time performances were surrounded by a combined 0.8 points in Weeks 2 & 4. Shorts really put himself on the map with his Week 8 game against Green Bay, where for the first time, he put up 100 yards receiving and amassed 10 fantasy points without the aide of a fluke long TD. He was added minimally in most formats at that point, and minus his 5.6 points against Detroit in Week 9, he has gone for at least 80 yards and a TD in each game since. Chad Henne's entrance into the Jacksonville lineup along with massive issues with the Jaguars' running game has made this duo of receivers viable fantasy starters over the past 2 weeks and a matchup with Buffalo this week along with fantasy playoff matchups with the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots make these receivers top 25 plays during the most important stretch of the fantasy season. I own Shorts and Blackmon in different formats and I will be using them with confidence for the duration of my fantasy seasons.
Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions
Had it not been for a massive ACL blowout during his final season at Oklahoma, Broyles would have likely been a high 2nd or late 1st round pick. Broyles was a huge playmaker in college and was on pace to challenge Justin Blackmon for many of the postseason awards Blackmon won with ease when Broyles got hurt. Broyles had 1 total target over the 1st 5 games of the season and was firmly buried on the Lions' depth chart behind Nate Burleson and Titus Young. Broyles made his first impactful performance during the Lions' Monday Night loss to the Bears in Week 7, filling in for the since IR'd Burleson and receiving 4 targets, good for 3 catches, 51 yards and a late TD. He also scored the following week against Seattle and fantasy owners started to take notice. He disappeared the next 3 weeks, although he did catch every one of his 9 targets during those 3 weeks as Titus Young really started to blow up. The week prior to Thanksgiving, however, really opened the door for Broyles as Titus Young was deactivated 3 days before the Lions-Texans clash and Broyles was named the starter opposite Calvin Johnson. Broyles responded with 6 catches on a whopping 12 targets for 126 yards. He also had a 20+ yard TD swatted out of his hands early in the 1st quarter, meaning his game could have been a whole lot larger. With Young firmly in Jim Schwartz's doghouse, Broyles is set up for success in an elite passing offense. With a shootout-type schedule on tap in the fantasy playoffs (@GB, @AZ & ATL), I expect Broyles to continue to see bulk targets and be a major factor. Start him as a WR3 without question.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
This one comes with a disclaimer, because if Kaepernick continues to be SF's starting QB, he is a dangerous fantasy option and a likely Top 10 play in every format. It appears to me that Jim Harbaugh is going to allow the QB issue to be a weekly story and as long as the 49ers keep winning, I can't see him changing back to Alex Smith, barring injury. Kaepernick possesses a big time arm, great pocket awareness, and elite scrambling ability. He torched the Bears in his starting debut 2 weeks ago which is no easy task, as the Bears allow the fewest fantasy points to QBs. He was adequate against New Orleans, completing 64% of his passes for 231 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, and 27 yards rushing. Remember what Tim Tebow was a few years ago when he burst onto the fantasy scene? Imagine if Tebow could actually throw...and you have Kaepernick. He is an elite running option, completely capable of moving the chains via his legs if coverage takes away his WRs. Frank Gore has had a fantastic season and most teams will dare San Fran to let Kaepernick beat them. His toughest remaining matchup is in Seattle Week 16. If you've lost Ben Roethlisberger or Michael Vick, Kaepernick is a more than suitable replacement and likely should be your starter when either of those two return. He faces St. Louis this week and has matchups with Miami and New England on tap, both of which have allowed passing games to flourish. I'm not starting this guy over your Rodgers, Brees and Brady types, but if you're frustrated with Eli Manning or getting impatient with Matt Ryan's turnover issues, Kaepernick may be a great flier for your playoff push.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins
Garcon was drafted in almost every format this past August and his Week 1 showing in New Orleans made owners feel like Albert Einstein for using a late round pick on the 5th year receiver. Then he got hurt...and stayed hurt. He missed 6 of the next 9 games and the 3 games he played, he was a total non-factor, totalling 7 catches for 49 yards. Most owners probably dropped him midseason, as it looked like he probably wasn't going to be a contributor in any capacity. Then Thanksgiving Day happened. He broke out for 4 catches, 86 yards and a TD, including an absolutely awesome 59 yard scamper for 6 in which he hand fought 3 Cowboys defenders and showed great burst. He has said that while he is still in a great deal of pain, the pain is now "numb", and no longer a factor in keeping him off the field. With RGIII destroying NFL defenses, you absolutely have to have his #1 target in tow for the playoff run. He is probably no longer available after his performance last Thursday, but I feel Garcon can be a reliable WR2 if he can continue to manage his pain. I will say this: if there is any inkling that his injury has resurfaced as a problem and you have better options, don't take the risk. I'm using him this week in hopes of clinching a playoff spot in my league of record and I'm not hesitating to do so.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Injury-Palooza 2012
Getting through injuries remains a popular theme in the 2012 Fantasy Football Season. I've already discussed my ideas on how to navigate through injuries and still win, but I wanted to specifically discuss Week 11 and how the most recent string of injuries affects more than just one position on your fantasy roster.
1) Michael Vick
Michael Vick's concussion against the Cowboys opened the door for Philly fan-favorite Nick Foles to get his shot behind center. Foles gets a fantasy-friendly matchup in his first career start against the putrid Washington Redskins pass defense. However, because we're dealing with a rookie QB, the situation affects the entire Eagles offense. Rookie QBs tend to check down when facing pressure, meaning you're still starting LeSean McCoy without much hesitation. I'm also going to give a small uptick to Brent Celek, as the TE position is a safety blanket in most offenses, and with a rookie taking the snaps, I can anticipate Celek getting a few extra looks. I'm giving a downgrade to DeSean Jackson, as the deep passing game is probably not as much of an option since Foles will be looking to get the ball out of his hands quicker than Vick did. I am not a huge fan of Jeremy Maclin in general (even though I've drafted him in my league of record every year since he's entered the league), and he may see his usual workload, but I'm not expecting greatness. The guy I like best this week is WR Riley Cooper. Jason Avant is out on Sunday, clearing the path for Cooper to see additional snaps. Foles has probably taken most of his practice snaps up to this point with Cooper at WR, and I look for them to have a pretty solid rapport. Cooper caught a TD last week from Vick, and I expect him to see plenty of targets this weekend.
2) Jay Cutler
Cutler is the main cog in the Bears' offense, and as we've seen in the past, the Bears offense seems to stall without Cutler behind center. With a matchup in San Francisco on tap, I don't like any of the Bears main offensive pieces this weekend. Brandon Marshall should still see his usual workload, which is 10+ targets. What he does with those targets is what I'm fearful of. You're starting Marshall this week because you don't have a lot of other options to replace that type of production, but I'm calling for a 5-6 catch for 65-70 yard kind of performance. Adequate, but not spectacular. Matt Forte is another player you probably have to start due to the lack of stronger options available to you, but I can't see him getting more than about 70-80 yards and a TD is the only way Forte can have some value this weekend. The only player getting a small upgrade from me this weekend is Michael Bush, as the Bears will have to run the ball to control the clock and change field position. Bush could see extended work, making him more viable this week than he has been since he started against St. Louis. As a Bears fan, I'm hoping the defense can light it up and keep Jason Campbell in winnable situations on his side of the field. I'm tempering all expectations for the Bears offense this weekend, and if I owned pieces of this offense, I'd be scouring the Waiver Wire for one week fill ins.
3) Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben wasn't concussed like our first two QBs, but he came out of Week 10 with probably the most threatening injury of all. Apparently, his shoulder injury has also revealed that he has a broken rib that can puncture his aorta if he isn't handled correctly. He has already been ruled out for Week 11's tilt with Baltimore, paving the way for Byron Leftwich to get his first start in 3 years. The Steelers are expecting Rashard Mendenhall to be back for this game and he will be the starter if he is declared Active. I like him only if he's the starter. If he can't go, Ike Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will split carries again, meaning you really can't know who is going to be featured. I still like Heath Miller and Mike Wallace, but you can't have a ton of confidence in either of them as the offense will be restructured to fit Leftwich's strengths. I am willing to bet Emmanuel Sanders and Jericho Cotchery will have serviceable games for the same reason I like Riley Cooper above...the 2nd string QB tends to get the bulk of his reps with the 2nd string offense, and with Antonio Brown out again, the pre-existing rapport between Leftwich and these WRs leads me to believe fantasy points can be had if you're willing to risk starting Sanders or Cotchery.
4) Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson
McFadden and Goodson are likely going to miss this week's game against New Orleans, the 2nd straight game missed for each. This clears the way for Marcel Reece to step into the starter's spot, similarly to how he performed last week against Baltimore. Reece got 20 touches on the day, totaling 104 yards. Against the pourous Saints defense, Reece could be in for a big time day. Even if he doesn't get 20 touches, I give an overall bump to all of the pieces of Oakland's passing offense. Carson Palmer, Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Brandon Myers should all see big days, as the Saints should do everything in the power to run up the score. This game has shootout written all over it, similar to the Raiders-Steelers tilt from Week 3 or the Raiders-Buccaneers tilt from Week 9. The Raiders average 26.5 points per game at home in 4 games vs. 17.0 points per game in 5 road games, so offensive production is in the cards for Sunday.
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1) Michael Vick
Michael Vick's concussion against the Cowboys opened the door for Philly fan-favorite Nick Foles to get his shot behind center. Foles gets a fantasy-friendly matchup in his first career start against the putrid Washington Redskins pass defense. However, because we're dealing with a rookie QB, the situation affects the entire Eagles offense. Rookie QBs tend to check down when facing pressure, meaning you're still starting LeSean McCoy without much hesitation. I'm also going to give a small uptick to Brent Celek, as the TE position is a safety blanket in most offenses, and with a rookie taking the snaps, I can anticipate Celek getting a few extra looks. I'm giving a downgrade to DeSean Jackson, as the deep passing game is probably not as much of an option since Foles will be looking to get the ball out of his hands quicker than Vick did. I am not a huge fan of Jeremy Maclin in general (even though I've drafted him in my league of record every year since he's entered the league), and he may see his usual workload, but I'm not expecting greatness. The guy I like best this week is WR Riley Cooper. Jason Avant is out on Sunday, clearing the path for Cooper to see additional snaps. Foles has probably taken most of his practice snaps up to this point with Cooper at WR, and I look for them to have a pretty solid rapport. Cooper caught a TD last week from Vick, and I expect him to see plenty of targets this weekend.
2) Jay Cutler
Cutler is the main cog in the Bears' offense, and as we've seen in the past, the Bears offense seems to stall without Cutler behind center. With a matchup in San Francisco on tap, I don't like any of the Bears main offensive pieces this weekend. Brandon Marshall should still see his usual workload, which is 10+ targets. What he does with those targets is what I'm fearful of. You're starting Marshall this week because you don't have a lot of other options to replace that type of production, but I'm calling for a 5-6 catch for 65-70 yard kind of performance. Adequate, but not spectacular. Matt Forte is another player you probably have to start due to the lack of stronger options available to you, but I can't see him getting more than about 70-80 yards and a TD is the only way Forte can have some value this weekend. The only player getting a small upgrade from me this weekend is Michael Bush, as the Bears will have to run the ball to control the clock and change field position. Bush could see extended work, making him more viable this week than he has been since he started against St. Louis. As a Bears fan, I'm hoping the defense can light it up and keep Jason Campbell in winnable situations on his side of the field. I'm tempering all expectations for the Bears offense this weekend, and if I owned pieces of this offense, I'd be scouring the Waiver Wire for one week fill ins.
3) Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben wasn't concussed like our first two QBs, but he came out of Week 10 with probably the most threatening injury of all. Apparently, his shoulder injury has also revealed that he has a broken rib that can puncture his aorta if he isn't handled correctly. He has already been ruled out for Week 11's tilt with Baltimore, paving the way for Byron Leftwich to get his first start in 3 years. The Steelers are expecting Rashard Mendenhall to be back for this game and he will be the starter if he is declared Active. I like him only if he's the starter. If he can't go, Ike Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will split carries again, meaning you really can't know who is going to be featured. I still like Heath Miller and Mike Wallace, but you can't have a ton of confidence in either of them as the offense will be restructured to fit Leftwich's strengths. I am willing to bet Emmanuel Sanders and Jericho Cotchery will have serviceable games for the same reason I like Riley Cooper above...the 2nd string QB tends to get the bulk of his reps with the 2nd string offense, and with Antonio Brown out again, the pre-existing rapport between Leftwich and these WRs leads me to believe fantasy points can be had if you're willing to risk starting Sanders or Cotchery.
4) Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson
McFadden and Goodson are likely going to miss this week's game against New Orleans, the 2nd straight game missed for each. This clears the way for Marcel Reece to step into the starter's spot, similarly to how he performed last week against Baltimore. Reece got 20 touches on the day, totaling 104 yards. Against the pourous Saints defense, Reece could be in for a big time day. Even if he doesn't get 20 touches, I give an overall bump to all of the pieces of Oakland's passing offense. Carson Palmer, Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Brandon Myers should all see big days, as the Saints should do everything in the power to run up the score. This game has shootout written all over it, similar to the Raiders-Steelers tilt from Week 3 or the Raiders-Buccaneers tilt from Week 9. The Raiders average 26.5 points per game at home in 4 games vs. 17.0 points per game in 5 road games, so offensive production is in the cards for Sunday.
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Thursday, November 8, 2012
Week 10 Matchups to Avoid
I typically prefer to discuss some kind of advanced strategy in this forum. I don't do player rankings because I feel that if you're basing your roster decisions solely on the opinions of others, you don't know enough about your own roster to make a decision on your own. I could come up with a Sit/Start list, but those lists don't apply in most cases because you would have to own more than 75% of the list for it to be applicable to you. You already know you're starting Julio Jones against New Orleans and sitting your Rams against the 49ers, and you don't need someone to reaffirm those facts. Instead, I've decided to pick out a few games on the Week 10 NFL Schedule that I feel will yield the lowest fantasy outputs and let you decide whether or not you can use who you have this weekend.
1) Tennessee at Miami
I am fully aware of Tennessee's season-long struggles on defense and on the road. When you actually sit back and look at this game, who can you actually trust? You're not starting whoever Tennessee runs out at QB. Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker will likely struggle in the face of the Miami pass rush, which currently is tied for 10th in the NFL with 23 sacks, but the Titan offensive line has been decent at protecting the passer, only allowing 17 sacks through 9 games. You probably have to start Chris Johnson, but Miami has only allowed 3 total TDs to RBs this season, 2 of them to Arian Foster in Week 1, along with no 100 yard rushing games and only one 100 total yard game (unbelievably Shonn Greene). The Miami pass defense is questionable at best, allowing 8 receiving TDs on the year and five 100 yard receiving games, but the Titan receiving corp is a real crap shoot when it comes to guessing who will get the most production between Kendall Wright, Nate Washington and Kenny Britt. Forget about Jared Cook, who has had less than 6 fantasy points in each of the last 4 weeks. As for Miami, I have heard all I can stomach about Ryan Tannehill being a great sleeper start this week. In standard formats, Tannehill has not eclipsed 20 points yet this season. He is averaging 14.51 fantasy points at home this season and while Tennessee stinks on defense in all phases, I'm not signing off on this one. Reggie Bush has the best overall matchup in this game going against the Titan run defense, but Bush has not put up back to back 10+ point fantasy performances since Weeks 1 & 2. Daniel Thomas has also cemented a vulture role in this backfield, grabbing 35 total touches in his last 3 games. Davone Bess is a nice sleeper, but he has only scored more than 8 fantasy points twice. Ryan Hartline has eclisped 10+ points 3 times this season, including last week. In the two previous games following those performances, he is averaging 5 fantasy points in the next week's matchup. I'm actually willing to trust Anthony Fasano at TE this week, but he has yet to score 10 points in any game this season. Overall, I think that you're looking at two underwhelming teams that will each struggle to score more than 20 points. I'd be willing to bet this game is paced similarly to Tennessee's 19-13 loss to Indianapolis a few weeks ago. Remember, a great matchup is only exploited when a good offense is on the other side.
2) St. Louis at San Francisco
This one seems a little obvious, but when you dig into this a little further, there are avoidable players on both sides of the ball. Starting with St. Louis, there are a ton of options better than Sam Bradford out there. San Fran has only allowed 2 TD passes at home this season. Bradford has thrown only 1 TD on the road. Do the math. The same applies to the St. Louis WR group. Yes, Danny Amendola is back this week. You may want to hold off on him until next week. Unless some sort of freak big play happens, SF is likely to be able to shut this passing game down, having only allowed 2 WR TDs on the season with no 100 yard receiving games. The Rams running game has typically struggled against average opponents, so this is, again, avoidable. Steven Jackson (on a weekly basis) should really only crack your starting lineup if you don't have better options. Based on all this information, we are starting the 49er defense as a Top 5 unit. The San Francisco offense isn't as much of a slam dunk as you'd think, however. Frank Gore has had great success in his career against the Rams, with 11 rushing TDs and 94.4 yards from scrimmage per game against them in his career. I would start Gore with regular confidence, but I would temper those expectations, as the Rams have only allowed two 100 yard rushing games this season (the only two 100 total yard games - Ridley & Lynch). Only 4 rushers have eclipsed 10 points as well. I would sit my 49er WRs as well (not that I'd be owning any). Only 2 WRs have gone over the 100 yard mark and while St. Louis has given up 7 receiving scores on the season, 4 of those came in multi-TD efforts from elite fantasy targets Jordy Nelson and Brandon Lloyd. Vernon Davis has been less than a mirage the last 3 weeks, and with Rob Gronkowski being the only TE to score more than 10 points against the Rams, roll with Davis if you don't have a better option. I'm expecting a final score of 20-6 San Francisco. TDs will be tough to come by and I have a feeling your fantasy options will be a disappointment all the way around.
3) Houston at Chicago
The marquee matchup of Week 10 sets up to be a hard fought, defensive style struggle where field position and turnovers will be the key to the game. I will completely get behind starting both defenses, Arian Foster & Brandon Marshall. These commodities are unbenchable in any format. I would also give a thumbs up to those who want to start Matt Forte. Forte is likely your RB1 or RB2, so you likely don't have a better option, but again, don't base your whole week around what he is or isn't going to do. Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub will struggle to produce fantasy numbers in this game. The Bears have not allowed a QB to eclipse 16 points in standard formats and Houston (removing the debacle against Green Bay and garbage time against Peyton Manning and the Broncos) has not allowed a passer to get over 13 points. Both defenses combined have allowed 2 rushing TDs and 2 100 yard rushers (coincidentally, Chris Johnson rushed for 141 yards against each team). Expect a 20-16 Chicago win, meaning kickers will have some value, but I'd expect both offenses to under produce when it comes to fantasy production.
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Thursday, November 1, 2012
Not as Great as You'd Think
Every week in Fantasy Football, we talk about matchups. In 2012, you know you're starting your offensive players against New Orleans, Buffalo and Tennessee, as they have Fantasy-Friendly defenses and big point totals tend to happen at all positions. I can't disagree with this claim. New Orelans is currently allowing the most fantasy points to QBs & WRs and the 2nd most points to RBs. Buffalo allows the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs, 4th most to WRs & most to RBs while Tennessee is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs, 3rd most to RBs & 2nd most to TEs. You start these players every week with confidence against these defenses and you live with the results. However, we do tend to hear on a weekly basis that you should start your RBs or WRs against specific defenses that, on paper, appear to be friendly matchups but don't often work out that way. As an example, I went into Week 8 with Marshawn Lynch starting against Detroit, Ryan Mathews starting against Cleveland (in the rain nonetheless) and Reggie Bush starting against the Jets. Only Lynch cracked double digit fantasy points, and that was the worst matchup of the 3 (Detroit is allowing the 24th most points to RBs, Cleveland 12th, the NY Jets 10th). At this point of the season, teams are usually who they are going to be by this point. I broke down a few defenses and found some matchups that are friendly on paper for RBs, but aren't necessarily in real life:
1) Carolina Panthers vs. RBs
We hear every week about how the Carolina Run Defense is a sieve and allows buckets of fantasy points to RBs. I have had 2 RBs on my roster this season who took on Carolina (Lynch and Doug Martin) and all accumulated fantasy points were yardage based. Neither RB was able to score a TD. Carolina is currently 9th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, but when you dig into the numbers, it's a lot tougher sledding then the actual figures appear. The Panthers have only allowed 4 rushing TDs to RBs on the season (2 to Andre Brown of the NY Giants, who is no longer starting on anyone's roster & 1 to Mark Ingram of the Saints who barely seems to have a pulse on the field). Matt Forte hit paydirt last week in a rare red zone rushing attempt, making him the only elite option to actually score on the Panthers. Drew Brees also scored a rushing TD against the Panthers way back in Week 2, but that doesn't implicate the Panthers, as it was a 1 yard sneak. Michael Turner scored a receiving TD against the Panthers on a fluke 60 yard screen pass. 3 rushers have topped 100 rushing yards against Carolina this season and 5 rushers have topped 100 total yards on the season (Darren Sproles all through the air). This defense is not good and I'm not telling you to bench your RBs against Carolina, but I'm not about to sit back and assume this defense is automatcially going to allow 100 yards or a TD to my RB on a weekly basis. The RBs Carolina faces in upcoming weeks gets rougher, as they'll see LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews and Jamaal Charles and you're not benching these guys. My advice is this: don't necessarily count on these players to carry your whole week because the matchup appears user-friendly.
2) New York Jets vs. RBs
The Jets are currently allowing the 10th most fantasy points to RBs, but the numbers are incredibly deceiving. First off, they've faced Arian Foster and the Texans rush attack, which is easily the best in the NFL. Most teams that face Foster are going to be in the top half of the league in points allowed to RBs because this team runs the ball down your throat for the better part of the whole game. When you actually analyze the numbers, they appear far less friendly. CJ Spiller went off in Week 1 for 23.4 points, mostly in garbage time as the Jets blew out the Bills. Ike Redman scored against them in Week 2 with the game already out of hand (it also took him multiple attempts to get into the end zone from the 1 yard line). Daniel Thomas and Jorvorskie Lane each plunged in from 1 yard out and the Jets still won the game (neither of these guys are viable fantasy starters). The 49ers gorged the Jets for 3 rushing scores because that's what the 49ers do...they are the NFC version of the Texans when it comes to running the ball. Daniel Thomas rushed in from 3 yards out last week for his 2nd rushing TD of the year on this unit. What's the point you ask? Take out Spiller and Foster's games and the Jets have not allowed a 100 yard rusher or a 100 yard total yardage game to any RBs. In order for your starting RB to have a relevant game agains the Jets, a TD is required. Reggie Bush put up 2 dud performances against them and Stevan Ridley managed just 65 total yards. The Jets are a unit you need to temper expectations against, as their defense is not as friendly as it appears on paper.
3) Cleveland Browns vs. RBs
You normally see Cleveland on your fantasy schedule and assume that a fantasy parade is on tap. The Browns have actually been a stout unit against fantasy rushers this year, allowing only 3 RBs to hit paydirt (2 on the ground, 1 via the air). 2 of those TDs happened in the same game, as Ahmad Bradshaw and the Giants absolutely pounded the Browns into submission while David Wilson picked up the garbage score. CJ Spiller scored via the pass and got hurt in the same game. They have only allowed 2 100 yard rushers (McCoy and Bradshaw). I am obviously starting my RBs with confidence against the Browns because most games tend to slip away from them in the 2nd half, but I know full well that a slam dunk monster fantasy performance isn't always likely.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs RBs
Jacksonville is currently allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing RBs and a lot of that has to do with who they faced in Weeks 1 & 2. Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster (along with Ben Tate) gouged this unit for 268 rushing yards and 5 TDs in the first two weeks of the season. Since then, they have allowed 1 TD on the ground (Armando Allen of the Chicago Bears in garbage time of a 41-3 loss) and 2 TDs via the pass (Mewelde Moore of the Colts and Chris Pressley (who?) of the Bengals) to RBs. Matt Forte is the only RB to top 100 total yards against them since Week 2. 2 bad games against them has fantasy owners assuming their RBs are a must start against this fantasy defense. I have Mikel Leshoure on my roster and while there are several other factors keeping me from starting him, the matchup aids in my decision to leave him on the bench.
Keep in mind that 1 or 2 monster performances given up by a team tend to skew the numbers. The facts are what they are...all 4 of these defenses are top 12 in points allowed to RBs, but the numbers can tell a completely different story when you dig a little deeper. Again, start the players you must start against friendly opponents such as these, but temper your expectations. Any player can go off against any team on any given Sunday and statistics only tell half the story. Past performances do not always indicate future success.
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1) Carolina Panthers vs. RBs
We hear every week about how the Carolina Run Defense is a sieve and allows buckets of fantasy points to RBs. I have had 2 RBs on my roster this season who took on Carolina (Lynch and Doug Martin) and all accumulated fantasy points were yardage based. Neither RB was able to score a TD. Carolina is currently 9th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, but when you dig into the numbers, it's a lot tougher sledding then the actual figures appear. The Panthers have only allowed 4 rushing TDs to RBs on the season (2 to Andre Brown of the NY Giants, who is no longer starting on anyone's roster & 1 to Mark Ingram of the Saints who barely seems to have a pulse on the field). Matt Forte hit paydirt last week in a rare red zone rushing attempt, making him the only elite option to actually score on the Panthers. Drew Brees also scored a rushing TD against the Panthers way back in Week 2, but that doesn't implicate the Panthers, as it was a 1 yard sneak. Michael Turner scored a receiving TD against the Panthers on a fluke 60 yard screen pass. 3 rushers have topped 100 rushing yards against Carolina this season and 5 rushers have topped 100 total yards on the season (Darren Sproles all through the air). This defense is not good and I'm not telling you to bench your RBs against Carolina, but I'm not about to sit back and assume this defense is automatcially going to allow 100 yards or a TD to my RB on a weekly basis. The RBs Carolina faces in upcoming weeks gets rougher, as they'll see LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews and Jamaal Charles and you're not benching these guys. My advice is this: don't necessarily count on these players to carry your whole week because the matchup appears user-friendly.
2) New York Jets vs. RBs
The Jets are currently allowing the 10th most fantasy points to RBs, but the numbers are incredibly deceiving. First off, they've faced Arian Foster and the Texans rush attack, which is easily the best in the NFL. Most teams that face Foster are going to be in the top half of the league in points allowed to RBs because this team runs the ball down your throat for the better part of the whole game. When you actually analyze the numbers, they appear far less friendly. CJ Spiller went off in Week 1 for 23.4 points, mostly in garbage time as the Jets blew out the Bills. Ike Redman scored against them in Week 2 with the game already out of hand (it also took him multiple attempts to get into the end zone from the 1 yard line). Daniel Thomas and Jorvorskie Lane each plunged in from 1 yard out and the Jets still won the game (neither of these guys are viable fantasy starters). The 49ers gorged the Jets for 3 rushing scores because that's what the 49ers do...they are the NFC version of the Texans when it comes to running the ball. Daniel Thomas rushed in from 3 yards out last week for his 2nd rushing TD of the year on this unit. What's the point you ask? Take out Spiller and Foster's games and the Jets have not allowed a 100 yard rusher or a 100 yard total yardage game to any RBs. In order for your starting RB to have a relevant game agains the Jets, a TD is required. Reggie Bush put up 2 dud performances against them and Stevan Ridley managed just 65 total yards. The Jets are a unit you need to temper expectations against, as their defense is not as friendly as it appears on paper.
3) Cleveland Browns vs. RBs
You normally see Cleveland on your fantasy schedule and assume that a fantasy parade is on tap. The Browns have actually been a stout unit against fantasy rushers this year, allowing only 3 RBs to hit paydirt (2 on the ground, 1 via the air). 2 of those TDs happened in the same game, as Ahmad Bradshaw and the Giants absolutely pounded the Browns into submission while David Wilson picked up the garbage score. CJ Spiller scored via the pass and got hurt in the same game. They have only allowed 2 100 yard rushers (McCoy and Bradshaw). I am obviously starting my RBs with confidence against the Browns because most games tend to slip away from them in the 2nd half, but I know full well that a slam dunk monster fantasy performance isn't always likely.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs RBs
Jacksonville is currently allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing RBs and a lot of that has to do with who they faced in Weeks 1 & 2. Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster (along with Ben Tate) gouged this unit for 268 rushing yards and 5 TDs in the first two weeks of the season. Since then, they have allowed 1 TD on the ground (Armando Allen of the Chicago Bears in garbage time of a 41-3 loss) and 2 TDs via the pass (Mewelde Moore of the Colts and Chris Pressley (who?) of the Bengals) to RBs. Matt Forte is the only RB to top 100 total yards against them since Week 2. 2 bad games against them has fantasy owners assuming their RBs are a must start against this fantasy defense. I have Mikel Leshoure on my roster and while there are several other factors keeping me from starting him, the matchup aids in my decision to leave him on the bench.
Keep in mind that 1 or 2 monster performances given up by a team tend to skew the numbers. The facts are what they are...all 4 of these defenses are top 12 in points allowed to RBs, but the numbers can tell a completely different story when you dig a little deeper. Again, start the players you must start against friendly opponents such as these, but temper your expectations. Any player can go off against any team on any given Sunday and statistics only tell half the story. Past performances do not always indicate future success.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Improving your Position
The end of Week 7 was the official beginning of the 2nd half of the Fantasy Football season. When you looked at the updated standings on Tuesday morning, how did you feel about your current position? Those of us at 7-0, 6-1, or 5-2 are probably feeling pretty confident that we can maintain, make the playoffs, & challenge for a league championship. If you're sitting at 4-3 or 3-4, you're obviously smack dab in the middle of the pack, wondering what might have been if you had made 1 or 2 different roster moves or if you had pulled the trigger on a trade that seemed silly back in Week 2. If you're at 2-5, 1-6 or 0-7, desperation is now starting to settle in. Those of us in these deep holes are looking for any way to pull ourselves out of the depths of Fantasy Football shame and at least find a way to end the season on a high note OR claw your way back into contention. Here is your "Rest of the Season" strategy guide for your current position in your league:
7-0, 6-1 or 5-2
In 3 of my leagues, each of these Win/Loss totals represents the current record of the team in first place, and also happen to be my Win/Loss records. I won't spend alot of time talking about the league I'm 7-0 in, as it is a gimmick league with a small amount of managers, wacky scoring, and loaded rosters with a deep free agent pool. In the league where I am 6-1, I am not only sitting in 1st by myself, but I also lead the league in points scored and winning margin, which are the top two tie-breakers. I have a showdown with the team in 2nd place this week, who trails me by 1 game and 38 points. My major bye week (Week 7) has passed and my roster is fully loaded for the stretch run. In the league where I am 5-2, I am tied for 1st, trailing by just over 20 points with a 1 game, 14 point cushion over 3rd place. I play the team in last place this week who loses 3 RBs this week (2 to bye, 1 to injury). These scenarios likely represent where you stand in your league if you hold one of these win/loss records. The only advice I can give to you is this: Stay the course. You've obviously traded shrewdly, hit the Waiver Wire hard and had a little bit of luck to get to this point. Don't get desperate for a deal that doesn't need to be made. Address your weaknesses now by shedding depth in exchange for studs. Come playoff time, you want to have your roster decisions at a bare minimum and the best way to do that is to shed off players who are simply backups on your roster to a team that needs depth to push themselves into playoff position. We're deep enough into the season where it is entirely possible that you have 2 every week starters at QB, 4 or more startable WRs and a crop of RBs that have all passed their bye week. If you are in need of a long term solution at TE or you feel like 1 additional stud would make your roster complete, trade 2 players for that stud. Remember this though...you're in the position of power. Your spot in the playoffs is more secure than those teams trailing you in the standings and you don't have to seek out a deal. Let deals come to you. You can still afford to sell high and buy low. Take calculated risks that don't affect the overall balance of your team.
4-3 or 3-4
Depending on your league's playoff format, players with these records are likely on the fringe of being out of the playoffs. You not only need to monitor wins and losses very closely, but you also need to score consistent point totals to hold on to your spot. Owners who currently sit with one of these records should be looking at their rosters and identifying the weaknesses. They exist. In one of my leagues, 4-3 is the record of the team currently in 3rd place who has lost 3 straight to fall from 1st. They are suffering through bye weeks because while their full strength starting lineup is incredibly strong, they lack depth to replace key players on bye. In this position, I would be looking to see how many STARTING QUALITY players I could get back for my stud player. In this specific example, that player is Ray Rice. Nobody wants to be in a position where they are looking to sell Ray Rice when they are right in the middle of the playoff hunt, I get that. But if depth is your issue and you are hitting the wire every week for a flex starter, getting 2 starting RBs for Ray Rice is a great move for your team, especially when half of the league has already had their bye week. If you could move Ray Rice and get back a Reggie Bush and Fred Jackson, who individually are steps behind Rice but together solve an overall depth issue, that would be a prudent move. You have to manage your team week to week with an eye focused on the upcoming weeks. 4-3 or 3-4 teams should be active traders at this time and they have the most flexibility in who they want to trade with. Teams at the top of the standings are less likely to trade with those hanging around them, as nobody wants to help their closest competitor improve. When you sit in the middle of the pack, you are trying to make 1 for 2's with the teams ahead of you and even strength (1 for 1, 2 for 2) moves with those in the same position while still having the standings power to acquire a stud from the teams below you in the standings in a 2 for 1 move. Remember, the more top-tier players you can accumulate, the more starting quality players you can receive back in return. Be aggressive and shake up your roster. The Waiver Wire is no longer your friend.
2-5, 1-6 or 0-7
If you sit at 0-7, I'm sorry, you're likely out of it. 6-7 or 7-7 (depending on what week your league's playoffs start) is usually not going to be good enough to make the playoffs, and having to jump over half of your league to get into the playoffs is an unlikely scenario. Do those ahead of you a favor and maintain the integrity of your league by not having a firesale. Don't skew the results of the season just because you've had some bad luck. Trade fairly, continue to update your starting roster and stay active with your team. Trading Arian Foster or LeSean McCoy for 3 Waiver Wire type players is a move that screws over those who have worked hard to get themselves into position to win.
If you sit at 2-5 or 1-6, you still have a shot. Here's how:
1) You need to take advantage of your Waiver priority when you have it and make sure you snag the hot waiver wire players before those ahead of you.
2) Make as many 1 for 2 deals as you can and assemble a roster that can compete on a week to week basis. If a player like Jamaal Charles is your best player, package him with one of your WRs and get 3 players back from a team who can solidify their core with a player like Charles. When you're on the side getting back more than you trade, it allows you to clean up your bench and drop players who have absolutely no business still being on a roster.
3) You need to manage week to week, so if you're facing someone who owns Aaron Rodgers this week, try to trade for or pick up his favorite targets. Nelson, Cobb, Jones & Jennings are obviously going to be owned in almost every league, so put together packages that get you back players like this. You have to neutralize your opponent's best weapons where you can. The bright spot is once you move away from the matchup, you can easily move guys like Cobb and Jones to the next owner facing Rodgers and get back players you need to neutralize the next matchup.
4) Take advantage of matchups. You want to start players who are facing Tennessee, Buffalo, Washington, Cleveland, Oakland and Jacksonville because these defenses are fantasy friendly. You cannot put yourself in a position where you are resigned to the fate of starting someone in a bad matchup. You need upside at every position. If you can see that your 2nd tier RB is playing at Chicago, you want to bench that guy who isn't going to do anything for you.
When assembling a week to week roster, you can only game plan for who you're facing and what matchups are available to you.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
7-0, 6-1 or 5-2
In 3 of my leagues, each of these Win/Loss totals represents the current record of the team in first place, and also happen to be my Win/Loss records. I won't spend alot of time talking about the league I'm 7-0 in, as it is a gimmick league with a small amount of managers, wacky scoring, and loaded rosters with a deep free agent pool. In the league where I am 6-1, I am not only sitting in 1st by myself, but I also lead the league in points scored and winning margin, which are the top two tie-breakers. I have a showdown with the team in 2nd place this week, who trails me by 1 game and 38 points. My major bye week (Week 7) has passed and my roster is fully loaded for the stretch run. In the league where I am 5-2, I am tied for 1st, trailing by just over 20 points with a 1 game, 14 point cushion over 3rd place. I play the team in last place this week who loses 3 RBs this week (2 to bye, 1 to injury). These scenarios likely represent where you stand in your league if you hold one of these win/loss records. The only advice I can give to you is this: Stay the course. You've obviously traded shrewdly, hit the Waiver Wire hard and had a little bit of luck to get to this point. Don't get desperate for a deal that doesn't need to be made. Address your weaknesses now by shedding depth in exchange for studs. Come playoff time, you want to have your roster decisions at a bare minimum and the best way to do that is to shed off players who are simply backups on your roster to a team that needs depth to push themselves into playoff position. We're deep enough into the season where it is entirely possible that you have 2 every week starters at QB, 4 or more startable WRs and a crop of RBs that have all passed their bye week. If you are in need of a long term solution at TE or you feel like 1 additional stud would make your roster complete, trade 2 players for that stud. Remember this though...you're in the position of power. Your spot in the playoffs is more secure than those teams trailing you in the standings and you don't have to seek out a deal. Let deals come to you. You can still afford to sell high and buy low. Take calculated risks that don't affect the overall balance of your team.
4-3 or 3-4
Depending on your league's playoff format, players with these records are likely on the fringe of being out of the playoffs. You not only need to monitor wins and losses very closely, but you also need to score consistent point totals to hold on to your spot. Owners who currently sit with one of these records should be looking at their rosters and identifying the weaknesses. They exist. In one of my leagues, 4-3 is the record of the team currently in 3rd place who has lost 3 straight to fall from 1st. They are suffering through bye weeks because while their full strength starting lineup is incredibly strong, they lack depth to replace key players on bye. In this position, I would be looking to see how many STARTING QUALITY players I could get back for my stud player. In this specific example, that player is Ray Rice. Nobody wants to be in a position where they are looking to sell Ray Rice when they are right in the middle of the playoff hunt, I get that. But if depth is your issue and you are hitting the wire every week for a flex starter, getting 2 starting RBs for Ray Rice is a great move for your team, especially when half of the league has already had their bye week. If you could move Ray Rice and get back a Reggie Bush and Fred Jackson, who individually are steps behind Rice but together solve an overall depth issue, that would be a prudent move. You have to manage your team week to week with an eye focused on the upcoming weeks. 4-3 or 3-4 teams should be active traders at this time and they have the most flexibility in who they want to trade with. Teams at the top of the standings are less likely to trade with those hanging around them, as nobody wants to help their closest competitor improve. When you sit in the middle of the pack, you are trying to make 1 for 2's with the teams ahead of you and even strength (1 for 1, 2 for 2) moves with those in the same position while still having the standings power to acquire a stud from the teams below you in the standings in a 2 for 1 move. Remember, the more top-tier players you can accumulate, the more starting quality players you can receive back in return. Be aggressive and shake up your roster. The Waiver Wire is no longer your friend.
2-5, 1-6 or 0-7
If you sit at 0-7, I'm sorry, you're likely out of it. 6-7 or 7-7 (depending on what week your league's playoffs start) is usually not going to be good enough to make the playoffs, and having to jump over half of your league to get into the playoffs is an unlikely scenario. Do those ahead of you a favor and maintain the integrity of your league by not having a firesale. Don't skew the results of the season just because you've had some bad luck. Trade fairly, continue to update your starting roster and stay active with your team. Trading Arian Foster or LeSean McCoy for 3 Waiver Wire type players is a move that screws over those who have worked hard to get themselves into position to win.
If you sit at 2-5 or 1-6, you still have a shot. Here's how:
1) You need to take advantage of your Waiver priority when you have it and make sure you snag the hot waiver wire players before those ahead of you.
2) Make as many 1 for 2 deals as you can and assemble a roster that can compete on a week to week basis. If a player like Jamaal Charles is your best player, package him with one of your WRs and get 3 players back from a team who can solidify their core with a player like Charles. When you're on the side getting back more than you trade, it allows you to clean up your bench and drop players who have absolutely no business still being on a roster.
3) You need to manage week to week, so if you're facing someone who owns Aaron Rodgers this week, try to trade for or pick up his favorite targets. Nelson, Cobb, Jones & Jennings are obviously going to be owned in almost every league, so put together packages that get you back players like this. You have to neutralize your opponent's best weapons where you can. The bright spot is once you move away from the matchup, you can easily move guys like Cobb and Jones to the next owner facing Rodgers and get back players you need to neutralize the next matchup.
4) Take advantage of matchups. You want to start players who are facing Tennessee, Buffalo, Washington, Cleveland, Oakland and Jacksonville because these defenses are fantasy friendly. You cannot put yourself in a position where you are resigned to the fate of starting someone in a bad matchup. You need upside at every position. If you can see that your 2nd tier RB is playing at Chicago, you want to bench that guy who isn't going to do anything for you.
When assembling a week to week roster, you can only game plan for who you're facing and what matchups are available to you.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Who's Killing You?
I didn't have a specific strategy I wanted to discuss this week so I wanted to see who is reading my blog and put out an interactive topic. Feel free to respond directly to the blog in the comments section, Facebook or Twitter.
Week 7 begins tonight with a less than appetizing Fantasy matchup as Seattle travels to San Francisco for an NFC West slugfest. If you're expecting fireworks tonight, I would temper those expectations right away, as this (on paper) looks like it's going to be a defensive struggle. You're probably starting both defenses if you own them, David Akers (4 FGs made in each of his last 3 meetings with Seattle), Vernon Davis and Marshawn Lynch or Frank Gore (if you don't have better options). You can't reasonably expect to start either QB or any of the WRs with much confidence. That leads to me to this question: through 6 weeks of the fantasy season, who in the NFL is absolutely killing you? It doesn't have to be someone you actually own...it could be a teammate of one of your players who is stealing opportunities or someone who is factoring into an offense more than they should. I'll get the ball rolling and name 3 players who are absolutely killing me.
1) Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle
I am a Marshawn Lynch owner and on a week to week basis, I watch Seattle's games unfold on the various Gametrackers that I use and I continue to wonder how and why Pete Carroll lets this guy be the focal point of his offense. When I traded for Lynch prior to Week 2, I liked the situation that I was getting myself into: rookie QB, strong offensive line & defense, great homefield advantage, and a ball carrier that doesn't fumble and runs really hard. I fully expected Lynch, no matter the game situation, to be a 20 carry guy on a week to week basis. For some reason, I have to sit back and watch this rookie QB scramble for 8-9 yards a pop, throw 3 straight incompletions and then punt, or throw to Robert Turbin. The moderate success that Wilson has had so far is hurting Lynch, as the Seattle playbook continues to open wider to allow for more Wilson opportunities. Even in games where Seattle was in control or was in striking distance, I continue to see Lynch not get carries in spots where Seattle should be running the ball. I have gone on record in saying that Wilson, not Mark Sanchez, is the worst starting QB in the league and that if Matt Flynn was the starter, Lynch would be a Top 5 back instead of a Top 10 back. Lynch is probably being conserved so that he is impactful in the 2nd half of the season and with Seattle having a Week 11 bye, I completely agree that his workload should be scaled back. I just get tired of seeing Wilson succeed because A) I personally don't like him and B) No one else on Seattle is worth owning.
2) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
Prior to Week 6, I owned Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. I moved up in my draft to grab Graham and I traded for Sproles after Week 5, despite the bye week. Before I even got to use Sproles, I had a great offer on my plate to send Sproles, Graham & Demaryius Thomas to another owner for AJ Green, Reggie Bush & Antonio Gates. I couldn't pass up on adding Green to my roster, as I had also packaged a great group of players to acquire Calvin Johnson just a week earlier and Reggie Bush was an upgrade to my RB group, who have been suspect all season. So I pulled the trigger. When I owned Graham, I found myself watching the Saints intently, as they continue to get themselves into shootout after shootout while Graham underpeformed every week. He scored double digit fantasy points in each of the first two weeks and saw his production slide under 10 points in each of the next 3 weeks, including a brutal 0.4 point performance in Week 5, mostly attributed to an an ankle injury that now threatens to sideline him even longer. For whatever reason, Brees just wasn't looking his way. In Week 3, Graham managed a TD and 16 yards receiving while Jed Collins vultured a TD from all other Saints. In Weeks 4 & 5, Marcus Colston decided he was going to show up and play elite, limiting Graham's opportunities. I decided that Brees and the high powered Saints would plague me no longer, and I shed off all of my stock in the Saints offense prior to last week. The trend remains the same down on the bayou...Brees doesn't lock onto one target for long stretches of time and starting Saints outside of Brees continues to be a crapshoot. If you own Brees, keep starting him with confidence every week, as he's going to throw at least 2 TDs and pile up yardage in garbage time. His offensive weapons of choice, however, change on a week to week basis.
3) Norv Turner, Head Coach, San Diego
Yeah, that's right, a coach in his entirety is killing me. I have owned Ryan Mathews for 2 weeks, including his breakout performance against the Saints and last Monday Night's collapse against Denver. In both of those games, the same situation came into play: the Chargers were trailing with less than 5 minutes to go in the game and Ronnie FRIGGIN Brown was on the field. Is Ronnie Brown really that much better of an option in the passing/pass blocking game then Mathews? No. Is he a more talented player with the ball in his hands? No. I thought I was being ridiculous about this until I heard the exact same argument being made on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports radio on Tuesday morning. The hosts were criticizing Turner for having Brown on the field during the 2 minute offense, questioning whether or not it made that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things which RB was on the field during this time of the game. When you're in need of a TD to take the lead or tie, my thinking is that you want your best offensive talent on the field at that time. Because most defenses play balloon coverage during the 2 minute drill to avoid deep plays and keep potential ball carriers in front of them, this is the best scenario to pick up that garbage yardage that most fantasy owners are craving at the end of games. If Mathews is the Chargers' best offensive weapon (and in my eyes, he is), why is he standing on the sidelines at these crucial moments in games? In addition to poor end game management (which is synonymous with Turner's entire coaching career), Mathews owners also had to deal with the whole Jackie Battle depth chart situation, While that didn't play out into anything more than a mirage, it was really annoying to think that going into the best possible matchup of the year for San Diego RBs against the Saints, Mathews owners were possibly going to lose out on bulk yardage and goal line opportunities thanks to the incredibly sucky Jackie Battle. Turner needs to be relieved of his duties in San Diego probably more than any other coach needs to be removed in the entire league. This team consistently underperforms and I think a team that lacks discipline to finish games is a direct reflection of its' leadership. Put Mathews on the field as an every down back, Norv.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Week 7 begins tonight with a less than appetizing Fantasy matchup as Seattle travels to San Francisco for an NFC West slugfest. If you're expecting fireworks tonight, I would temper those expectations right away, as this (on paper) looks like it's going to be a defensive struggle. You're probably starting both defenses if you own them, David Akers (4 FGs made in each of his last 3 meetings with Seattle), Vernon Davis and Marshawn Lynch or Frank Gore (if you don't have better options). You can't reasonably expect to start either QB or any of the WRs with much confidence. That leads to me to this question: through 6 weeks of the fantasy season, who in the NFL is absolutely killing you? It doesn't have to be someone you actually own...it could be a teammate of one of your players who is stealing opportunities or someone who is factoring into an offense more than they should. I'll get the ball rolling and name 3 players who are absolutely killing me.
1) Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle
I am a Marshawn Lynch owner and on a week to week basis, I watch Seattle's games unfold on the various Gametrackers that I use and I continue to wonder how and why Pete Carroll lets this guy be the focal point of his offense. When I traded for Lynch prior to Week 2, I liked the situation that I was getting myself into: rookie QB, strong offensive line & defense, great homefield advantage, and a ball carrier that doesn't fumble and runs really hard. I fully expected Lynch, no matter the game situation, to be a 20 carry guy on a week to week basis. For some reason, I have to sit back and watch this rookie QB scramble for 8-9 yards a pop, throw 3 straight incompletions and then punt, or throw to Robert Turbin. The moderate success that Wilson has had so far is hurting Lynch, as the Seattle playbook continues to open wider to allow for more Wilson opportunities. Even in games where Seattle was in control or was in striking distance, I continue to see Lynch not get carries in spots where Seattle should be running the ball. I have gone on record in saying that Wilson, not Mark Sanchez, is the worst starting QB in the league and that if Matt Flynn was the starter, Lynch would be a Top 5 back instead of a Top 10 back. Lynch is probably being conserved so that he is impactful in the 2nd half of the season and with Seattle having a Week 11 bye, I completely agree that his workload should be scaled back. I just get tired of seeing Wilson succeed because A) I personally don't like him and B) No one else on Seattle is worth owning.
2) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
Prior to Week 6, I owned Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. I moved up in my draft to grab Graham and I traded for Sproles after Week 5, despite the bye week. Before I even got to use Sproles, I had a great offer on my plate to send Sproles, Graham & Demaryius Thomas to another owner for AJ Green, Reggie Bush & Antonio Gates. I couldn't pass up on adding Green to my roster, as I had also packaged a great group of players to acquire Calvin Johnson just a week earlier and Reggie Bush was an upgrade to my RB group, who have been suspect all season. So I pulled the trigger. When I owned Graham, I found myself watching the Saints intently, as they continue to get themselves into shootout after shootout while Graham underpeformed every week. He scored double digit fantasy points in each of the first two weeks and saw his production slide under 10 points in each of the next 3 weeks, including a brutal 0.4 point performance in Week 5, mostly attributed to an an ankle injury that now threatens to sideline him even longer. For whatever reason, Brees just wasn't looking his way. In Week 3, Graham managed a TD and 16 yards receiving while Jed Collins vultured a TD from all other Saints. In Weeks 4 & 5, Marcus Colston decided he was going to show up and play elite, limiting Graham's opportunities. I decided that Brees and the high powered Saints would plague me no longer, and I shed off all of my stock in the Saints offense prior to last week. The trend remains the same down on the bayou...Brees doesn't lock onto one target for long stretches of time and starting Saints outside of Brees continues to be a crapshoot. If you own Brees, keep starting him with confidence every week, as he's going to throw at least 2 TDs and pile up yardage in garbage time. His offensive weapons of choice, however, change on a week to week basis.
3) Norv Turner, Head Coach, San Diego
Yeah, that's right, a coach in his entirety is killing me. I have owned Ryan Mathews for 2 weeks, including his breakout performance against the Saints and last Monday Night's collapse against Denver. In both of those games, the same situation came into play: the Chargers were trailing with less than 5 minutes to go in the game and Ronnie FRIGGIN Brown was on the field. Is Ronnie Brown really that much better of an option in the passing/pass blocking game then Mathews? No. Is he a more talented player with the ball in his hands? No. I thought I was being ridiculous about this until I heard the exact same argument being made on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports radio on Tuesday morning. The hosts were criticizing Turner for having Brown on the field during the 2 minute offense, questioning whether or not it made that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things which RB was on the field during this time of the game. When you're in need of a TD to take the lead or tie, my thinking is that you want your best offensive talent on the field at that time. Because most defenses play balloon coverage during the 2 minute drill to avoid deep plays and keep potential ball carriers in front of them, this is the best scenario to pick up that garbage yardage that most fantasy owners are craving at the end of games. If Mathews is the Chargers' best offensive weapon (and in my eyes, he is), why is he standing on the sidelines at these crucial moments in games? In addition to poor end game management (which is synonymous with Turner's entire coaching career), Mathews owners also had to deal with the whole Jackie Battle depth chart situation, While that didn't play out into anything more than a mirage, it was really annoying to think that going into the best possible matchup of the year for San Diego RBs against the Saints, Mathews owners were possibly going to lose out on bulk yardage and goal line opportunities thanks to the incredibly sucky Jackie Battle. Turner needs to be relieved of his duties in San Diego probably more than any other coach needs to be removed in the entire league. This team consistently underperforms and I think a team that lacks discipline to finish games is a direct reflection of its' leadership. Put Mathews on the field as an every down back, Norv.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Injuries & Winning
This week has been absolutely brutal when it comes to injuries in the middle tier. Fantasy owners have been extremely fortunate (thus far) to not have to deal with injuries to the upper echelon tiers of fantasy players, which are complete season changers. This season has been defined by finding value in the middle tier, especially at the RB position. At this point of the season, the inuries are starting to pile up and players that were filling out your roster have gone down with various injuries and have left big holes in your starting rosters. As we are right in the middle of the bye weeks, how are you able to manage injuries and continue to be successful with a depleted player pool? I had a friend send me his beat up roster and I will use it as an example as to how to manage through these difficult times.
Here's his roster (12 team, non-ppr, standard scoring, starting 2 WR, 2 RB & 1 Flex):
QB Matthew Stafford
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne
RB Willis McGahee
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Doug Martin
K Justin Tucker
DEF St. Louis
BN Brandon Myers
BN Donald Brown
BN Kendall Wright
BN Andre Roberts
BN Vick Ballard
BN NY Giants
For a 12 team league, this is a roster that most of us would be used to seeing. There are strengths, but for the most part, the roster as a whole is balanced and the owner is counting of contributions from the middle tier of players. This owner has also suffered through these injuries/suspensions: Danny Amendola, Jerome Simpson, Ramses Barden, Nate Kaeding. Earlier in the season, this owner was dealing with the question plaguing a lot of fantasy owners and he came to me for a suggestion: I drafted Chris Johnson, now what do I do? I advised him early on to trade Johnson before it was too late and the best deal he found was Danny Amendola & Donald Brown for CJ. I told him that was worth jumping on and he swung the deal. First and foremost, he was right to deal Johnson. Even if Johnson shows some signs of life this season, he was smart to take the best available deal at the time and rid himself of the fantasy nuisance that CJ has turned into. Now, both players he received back are hurt and he's stuck scouring the waiver wire for help.
Breakdown:
As currently constructed, his roster is strong enough to remain competitive through the bye weeks and beyond. He still has good talent at RB with Bradshaw, McGahee & Martin. Upcoming matchups may not be the greatest, but at least he has players that have a workload carved out on their individual teams and see the field on a regular basis. The format of his league allows him to only have to make 1-2 tough decisions per week. Stafford has passed his bye week and he remains solid at the QB position. Hakeem Nicks, when Healthy and Active, is a top 5 performer at the WR position on a week to week basis. My advice for the current lineup is to stay the course. If Nicks is able to return to the lineup this week, he has to roll with him. He has a great contingency plan this week for Nicks being INACTIVE in Andre Roberts, as both players have a 4:00 EST game, and he will know prior to those games starting whether or not he'll be rolling with Nicks or Roberts. He has a win/win scenario either way as Nicks is a Must Start when in the lineup, and if Nicks can't go, he gets Roberts against the Bills, who are allowing the 4th most points against WRs this season. He did the right thing by adding Vick Ballard to play in place of Donald Brown, as Ballard has received all the back-up reps (in-game) for Indy and has been named the starter while Brown is out. Ballard faces a user-friendly RB schedule during Brown's absence, drawing the Jets, Browns & Titans, all of which are in the Top 11 in Fantasy Points allowed to RBs. McGahee is on bye in Week 7 and Bradshaw takes his bye during Week 11, so he may only have to use Ballard once to fill in the gap. Brandon Myers fills in for Jimmy Graham during Week 6, and he's got a winnable matchup against the Falcons, who should be comfortably ahead in this game, meaning Oakland should have plenty of targets to go around for their WRs & TEs. St. Louis has become a playable fantasy defense, compiling 11 sacks over the last 2 weeks and owning the Giants as a backup defense is necessary, as St. Louis has tough matchups on the horizon. Justin Tucker is a reliable fantasy kicker, averaging just under 11 points per week and nailing 6 FGs over 40 yards or more.
Analysis for everyone else:
Injuries happen and as long as these injuries aren't keeping your game changing players out of action, there are always suitable replacements available on the Waiver Wire. Cedric Benson owners should have snagged Alex Green as a suitable stash option, Brown owners should have snagged Vick Ballard as a playable option for the next 3 weeks, and Ryan Williams owners hopefully had more than 3 RBs on their roster, because the Cardinal backfield situation will not have clarity until we've seen them in action this weekend. I advised owners of Danny Amendola to drop him without worry (and I was quoted in the Internationl Business Times for this opinion: (http://www.ibtimes.com/danny-amendola-injury-should-you-drop-him-your-fantasy-football-team-842101)). There is no real reason to jump on any of the other WRs on the St. Louis roster. If Amendola was anything higher than your WR3, your roster was already in trouble.
The key to navigating through bye weeks and injuries is to remain flexible at the bottom of your roster. No one has a roster where every player is undroppable, and you need to have guys that you can drop for injury replacements or bye week fill ins. The only case I have ever seen where an owner had a roster filled with players that were undroppable was in my most important league during the 2011 season. The owner who eventually won our league championship had 2 separate weeks where he took bye week zeroes at more than one position because if he had made a roster move, he would have dropped star-quality name players that would have been picked up immediately. I questioned his decision in each of the two weeks (I happened to be his opponent in both of these weeks), but his eventual championship (including knocking me off in the playoffs) made me back off of my questioning. In standard 10 and 12 man leagues, you likely have at least 1 roster spot that is fluid and can be used for stashing an injured player who will return or a speculative play for later in the season. Don't hesitate to be an active player on the Waiver Wire. Late season gems often lead fantasy teams from pretenders to contenders. Vick Ballard may completely dominate during the next 3 weeks and earn himself a greater share of the workload when Donald Brown returns. Alex Green (who I feel is the perfect fit at RB for what the Packers try to accomplish on offense) could prove to be a great add long term. Whomever wins the Cardinal job outright could be a valuable flex starter in the near future.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Here's his roster (12 team, non-ppr, standard scoring, starting 2 WR, 2 RB & 1 Flex):
QB Matthew Stafford
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne
RB Willis McGahee
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Doug Martin
K Justin Tucker
DEF St. Louis
BN Brandon Myers
BN Donald Brown
BN Kendall Wright
BN Andre Roberts
BN Vick Ballard
BN NY Giants
For a 12 team league, this is a roster that most of us would be used to seeing. There are strengths, but for the most part, the roster as a whole is balanced and the owner is counting of contributions from the middle tier of players. This owner has also suffered through these injuries/suspensions: Danny Amendola, Jerome Simpson, Ramses Barden, Nate Kaeding. Earlier in the season, this owner was dealing with the question plaguing a lot of fantasy owners and he came to me for a suggestion: I drafted Chris Johnson, now what do I do? I advised him early on to trade Johnson before it was too late and the best deal he found was Danny Amendola & Donald Brown for CJ. I told him that was worth jumping on and he swung the deal. First and foremost, he was right to deal Johnson. Even if Johnson shows some signs of life this season, he was smart to take the best available deal at the time and rid himself of the fantasy nuisance that CJ has turned into. Now, both players he received back are hurt and he's stuck scouring the waiver wire for help.
Breakdown:
As currently constructed, his roster is strong enough to remain competitive through the bye weeks and beyond. He still has good talent at RB with Bradshaw, McGahee & Martin. Upcoming matchups may not be the greatest, but at least he has players that have a workload carved out on their individual teams and see the field on a regular basis. The format of his league allows him to only have to make 1-2 tough decisions per week. Stafford has passed his bye week and he remains solid at the QB position. Hakeem Nicks, when Healthy and Active, is a top 5 performer at the WR position on a week to week basis. My advice for the current lineup is to stay the course. If Nicks is able to return to the lineup this week, he has to roll with him. He has a great contingency plan this week for Nicks being INACTIVE in Andre Roberts, as both players have a 4:00 EST game, and he will know prior to those games starting whether or not he'll be rolling with Nicks or Roberts. He has a win/win scenario either way as Nicks is a Must Start when in the lineup, and if Nicks can't go, he gets Roberts against the Bills, who are allowing the 4th most points against WRs this season. He did the right thing by adding Vick Ballard to play in place of Donald Brown, as Ballard has received all the back-up reps (in-game) for Indy and has been named the starter while Brown is out. Ballard faces a user-friendly RB schedule during Brown's absence, drawing the Jets, Browns & Titans, all of which are in the Top 11 in Fantasy Points allowed to RBs. McGahee is on bye in Week 7 and Bradshaw takes his bye during Week 11, so he may only have to use Ballard once to fill in the gap. Brandon Myers fills in for Jimmy Graham during Week 6, and he's got a winnable matchup against the Falcons, who should be comfortably ahead in this game, meaning Oakland should have plenty of targets to go around for their WRs & TEs. St. Louis has become a playable fantasy defense, compiling 11 sacks over the last 2 weeks and owning the Giants as a backup defense is necessary, as St. Louis has tough matchups on the horizon. Justin Tucker is a reliable fantasy kicker, averaging just under 11 points per week and nailing 6 FGs over 40 yards or more.
Analysis for everyone else:
Injuries happen and as long as these injuries aren't keeping your game changing players out of action, there are always suitable replacements available on the Waiver Wire. Cedric Benson owners should have snagged Alex Green as a suitable stash option, Brown owners should have snagged Vick Ballard as a playable option for the next 3 weeks, and Ryan Williams owners hopefully had more than 3 RBs on their roster, because the Cardinal backfield situation will not have clarity until we've seen them in action this weekend. I advised owners of Danny Amendola to drop him without worry (and I was quoted in the Internationl Business Times for this opinion: (http://www.ibtimes.com/danny-amendola-injury-should-you-drop-him-your-fantasy-football-team-842101)). There is no real reason to jump on any of the other WRs on the St. Louis roster. If Amendola was anything higher than your WR3, your roster was already in trouble.
The key to navigating through bye weeks and injuries is to remain flexible at the bottom of your roster. No one has a roster where every player is undroppable, and you need to have guys that you can drop for injury replacements or bye week fill ins. The only case I have ever seen where an owner had a roster filled with players that were undroppable was in my most important league during the 2011 season. The owner who eventually won our league championship had 2 separate weeks where he took bye week zeroes at more than one position because if he had made a roster move, he would have dropped star-quality name players that would have been picked up immediately. I questioned his decision in each of the two weeks (I happened to be his opponent in both of these weeks), but his eventual championship (including knocking me off in the playoffs) made me back off of my questioning. In standard 10 and 12 man leagues, you likely have at least 1 roster spot that is fluid and can be used for stashing an injured player who will return or a speculative play for later in the season. Don't hesitate to be an active player on the Waiver Wire. Late season gems often lead fantasy teams from pretenders to contenders. Vick Ballard may completely dominate during the next 3 weeks and earn himself a greater share of the workload when Donald Brown returns. Alex Green (who I feel is the perfect fit at RB for what the Packers try to accomplish on offense) could prove to be a great add long term. Whomever wins the Cardinal job outright could be a valuable flex starter in the near future.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Time to Trade
As we enter Week 5, you already have a great idea of what direction your team is heading in. If you're 4-0 or 3-1, you've made the correct starts, taken advantage of your matchups, and found the gems on the waiver wire. Your roster probably looks pretty good and you're confident about where you stand in your league. If you are on the opposite end of the spectrum bringing up the rear at 0-4 or 1-3, what can you do to turn things around NOW? Let's face it, you have to make a change now or risk falling even further out of contention. This is the optimal point of the season to start looking into trades. I personally never stop looking for a deal....I'm always looking to upgrade my individual rosters on a week to week basis with an eye towards the long term. In my most important league, I have already swung 4 deals and am currently rostering only 4 of the 15 players I started with after draft day. Yes, I hit the wire hard every week and since I play matchups at the kicker and defense spots, my roster is very fluid, but in a competitive league, there is no time to sit back and be complacent. I currently sit at 3-1 in that league (I should be 4-0 but I was a victim of the last 3 minutes of the Patriots-Bills game (Gostkowski & Lloyd) along with substantial under performances at the RB position (McFadden and Murray)). I lost in Week 4 by 1.3 points. 13 stinking yards. So I went out this week and made one deal, swapping Darren McFadden for Ryan Mathews. I traded with the guy currently sitting in 4th place who also happens to have the most overall points in the league (he is 2 roster moves away from being 4-0). He was willing to take on McFadden because of his ceiling and the upside he presents to a team that isn't having trouble scoring points. I took on Mathews for his upside and because I was sick of watching Darren McFadden underperform in my lineup week in and week out. We both felt a "change of scenery" for both RBs would help our teams in the long run. We'll see how it works out. Here is my "guide" for trading for both ends of the standings:
1) Understand where you stand in your league.
If you're currently sitting at 4-0, it can be for a number of reasons. You either have a team that is far better than every other team (like my Yahoo Public 10 Man League) or you have a grouping of players that is carrying your squad (like the guy currently at 4-0 in my most important league who has Brees, Rice and Gronkowski). If you're not 1 of these 2, you have probably been able to take advantage of a low scoring opponent a couple of times or you have squeaked by with a couple Monday Night comebacks. At 4-0 or 3-1, you have the power to eliminate the depth you have accumulated and use it to get an elite upgrade at one spot. Your goal when looking to trade should be to target a team that is under performing and has an elite upgrade at either the WR or RB position for you. If you can determine that this team is underperforming due to a lack of depth or overall roster weakness, this is the person you want to try and trade 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 with. As an example, I made a trade last week with a guy who was 0-3 who wanted to get deeper at the RB position, as he was only rostering 3 RBs (one of them being Peyton Hillis). His best available player was DeMarco Murray, so I packaged Doug Martin and Donald Brown, who both have high upsides and backfields primarily to themselves along with Antonio Brown, a Top 25 WR (currently sitting at #41 because he has already had his bye week) to get DeMarco Murray and Andre Johnson. This deal strengthened the core of my roster and added depth to my opponent's roster, which he sorely needed. In a position of power at the top of the standings, your motivation to trade is to eliminate depth (also eliminating tedious game day roster decisions) and strengthen your starting lineup. If you're sitting at 1-3 or 0-4, your goal has to be adding more points on a weekly basis with an eye on winning now. You want to trade in the opposite style. You want to add players who can start on your roster and help you win now. You will have to manage your team in Week to Week mode, however. If you're sitting at the bottom of your league with a roster that looked stacked when you drafted it (you likely have Chris Johnson), your goal is to add depth. Trading your elite player is a tough decision to make, but if you're sitting at the bottom and your best player is Marshawn Lynch, you can easily trade him for an RB AND a WR. You want to add as many talented players as you can but you have to realize that your record has killed any power you might have had to make a big time swap. This type of deal where you're getting 2 for 1 adds strength to your starting lineup and allows you to eliminate the crap you're holding on to at the bottom of your roster is optimal because your goal is to strengthen your roster as a whole.
2) Understand the Value of your current roster.
One thing that never diminishes in fantasy football is name value. An elite player can get off to a slow start from a fantasy perspective, but they still hold name value, equating to a higher ceiling. A player like Darren McFadden, who I have traded in 1 league and advised a friend of mine to trade in a deal that just went through, holds a ton of name-brand value. We all know that when things eventually start going right for Oakland, it will be because of McFadden. He can easily pop off for 100 yards and a score at any time and his schedule moving forward gives a prospective owner a big boost of optimism that a turn around can happen. You really cannot wait much longer to trade a commodity like this, however, because 1 or 2 bad performances coming out of his Week 5 bye will create a real quagmire for you, as he will become untradeable AND undroppable. McFadden's "moveability" is at its' highest point right now. A player that has reached untradeable AND undroppable status is Chris Johnson. You cannot receive similar value for CJ (value meaning where you likely drafted him), but you cannot just drop him, as he will create the greatest battle in the history of your waiver wire. If you're trying to trade Johnson, you are likely getting back a lower name-value RB and the deal is likely a multi-player package.
3) Discuss with your potential trade partner what they are actually trying to accomplish.
Earlier this season, an aggressive owner in my league was looking to upgrade his WR group. He had an abundance of RBs and was willing to make a move. I initially approached him about Stevan Ridley, as he was coming off an impressive Week 1 and I targeted him as a player I'd like to obtain. After discussing back and forth with this owner, I found out that he saw Ridley as a potential Top 10 RB, a price tag I did not agree with, and thus, I moved on to other players on his roster, as he remained the optimal trading partner for me due to his abundance of RBs and my abundance of WRs. After determining Ridley's price tag was too high for me, I moved on to Marshawn Lynch, who had an OK Week 1 against Arizona and was sitting on this owner's bench. We determined that Lynch was in the price range I was looking to deal within, and the WR he liked on my roster was Reggie Wayne. Because trading 1 for 1 was not fair for both squads, I threw in Reggie Bush with Wayne to get Lynch and Antonio Brown. Lynch was an upgrade over Bush for me and Wayne was an upgrade over Brown for him, so the deal was made. By finding out how the other owner valued his RBs, I was able to make a significant roster upgrade and in the short term, I got rid of a player with high upside when healthy (Bush) and obtained a secondary player (Brown) who I was able to deal a week later. Your goal in trading, regardless of where you are in the standings, is to eliminate weekly roster decisions and put together the strongest possible postseason roster. It is harder to trade in public leagues where you don't know everyone playing, but if you're reading this, you're likely playing in a league with people you know where strategy is more advanced and you can make moves based on the tendencies of other owners (favorite teams/players, etc.).
4) Don't trade players you just picked up off the waiver wire unless your trade partner requests it.
This week's hot pick up is more than likely either Ryan Hartline, Andre Roberts, or Jackie Battle. If you were lucky enough to grab them off the wire, the only value they hold is to your team. If you're picking up players like this and turning around and offering them up to every other owner in the league blindly, you're likely going to see a lot more rejected proposals. Here's the overall point: if I had wanted that player off the wire, I would have gone and gotten him myself. Other owners will see it this way too. If you're grabbing Hartline this week and turning around trying to get Victor Cruz or Roddy White (in a package of course), you're going to fail. Waiver Wire pickups have been season savers and have helped many owners win fantasy championships (Jamaal Charles in 2009, Peyton Hills in 2010), but unless someone else approaches you to get one of these pick ups, you're only going to get value for these players on your roster. If you went through the waiver process to get one of these guys and someone apparoaches you to get them and are willing to trade a name brand commodity to get them, swing that deal immediately. There is a reason these players were on the wire in the first place. But unless that deal comes to you, you're rostering that player.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
1) Understand where you stand in your league.
If you're currently sitting at 4-0, it can be for a number of reasons. You either have a team that is far better than every other team (like my Yahoo Public 10 Man League) or you have a grouping of players that is carrying your squad (like the guy currently at 4-0 in my most important league who has Brees, Rice and Gronkowski). If you're not 1 of these 2, you have probably been able to take advantage of a low scoring opponent a couple of times or you have squeaked by with a couple Monday Night comebacks. At 4-0 or 3-1, you have the power to eliminate the depth you have accumulated and use it to get an elite upgrade at one spot. Your goal when looking to trade should be to target a team that is under performing and has an elite upgrade at either the WR or RB position for you. If you can determine that this team is underperforming due to a lack of depth or overall roster weakness, this is the person you want to try and trade 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 with. As an example, I made a trade last week with a guy who was 0-3 who wanted to get deeper at the RB position, as he was only rostering 3 RBs (one of them being Peyton Hillis). His best available player was DeMarco Murray, so I packaged Doug Martin and Donald Brown, who both have high upsides and backfields primarily to themselves along with Antonio Brown, a Top 25 WR (currently sitting at #41 because he has already had his bye week) to get DeMarco Murray and Andre Johnson. This deal strengthened the core of my roster and added depth to my opponent's roster, which he sorely needed. In a position of power at the top of the standings, your motivation to trade is to eliminate depth (also eliminating tedious game day roster decisions) and strengthen your starting lineup. If you're sitting at 1-3 or 0-4, your goal has to be adding more points on a weekly basis with an eye on winning now. You want to trade in the opposite style. You want to add players who can start on your roster and help you win now. You will have to manage your team in Week to Week mode, however. If you're sitting at the bottom of your league with a roster that looked stacked when you drafted it (you likely have Chris Johnson), your goal is to add depth. Trading your elite player is a tough decision to make, but if you're sitting at the bottom and your best player is Marshawn Lynch, you can easily trade him for an RB AND a WR. You want to add as many talented players as you can but you have to realize that your record has killed any power you might have had to make a big time swap. This type of deal where you're getting 2 for 1 adds strength to your starting lineup and allows you to eliminate the crap you're holding on to at the bottom of your roster is optimal because your goal is to strengthen your roster as a whole.
2) Understand the Value of your current roster.
One thing that never diminishes in fantasy football is name value. An elite player can get off to a slow start from a fantasy perspective, but they still hold name value, equating to a higher ceiling. A player like Darren McFadden, who I have traded in 1 league and advised a friend of mine to trade in a deal that just went through, holds a ton of name-brand value. We all know that when things eventually start going right for Oakland, it will be because of McFadden. He can easily pop off for 100 yards and a score at any time and his schedule moving forward gives a prospective owner a big boost of optimism that a turn around can happen. You really cannot wait much longer to trade a commodity like this, however, because 1 or 2 bad performances coming out of his Week 5 bye will create a real quagmire for you, as he will become untradeable AND undroppable. McFadden's "moveability" is at its' highest point right now. A player that has reached untradeable AND undroppable status is Chris Johnson. You cannot receive similar value for CJ (value meaning where you likely drafted him), but you cannot just drop him, as he will create the greatest battle in the history of your waiver wire. If you're trying to trade Johnson, you are likely getting back a lower name-value RB and the deal is likely a multi-player package.
3) Discuss with your potential trade partner what they are actually trying to accomplish.
Earlier this season, an aggressive owner in my league was looking to upgrade his WR group. He had an abundance of RBs and was willing to make a move. I initially approached him about Stevan Ridley, as he was coming off an impressive Week 1 and I targeted him as a player I'd like to obtain. After discussing back and forth with this owner, I found out that he saw Ridley as a potential Top 10 RB, a price tag I did not agree with, and thus, I moved on to other players on his roster, as he remained the optimal trading partner for me due to his abundance of RBs and my abundance of WRs. After determining Ridley's price tag was too high for me, I moved on to Marshawn Lynch, who had an OK Week 1 against Arizona and was sitting on this owner's bench. We determined that Lynch was in the price range I was looking to deal within, and the WR he liked on my roster was Reggie Wayne. Because trading 1 for 1 was not fair for both squads, I threw in Reggie Bush with Wayne to get Lynch and Antonio Brown. Lynch was an upgrade over Bush for me and Wayne was an upgrade over Brown for him, so the deal was made. By finding out how the other owner valued his RBs, I was able to make a significant roster upgrade and in the short term, I got rid of a player with high upside when healthy (Bush) and obtained a secondary player (Brown) who I was able to deal a week later. Your goal in trading, regardless of where you are in the standings, is to eliminate weekly roster decisions and put together the strongest possible postseason roster. It is harder to trade in public leagues where you don't know everyone playing, but if you're reading this, you're likely playing in a league with people you know where strategy is more advanced and you can make moves based on the tendencies of other owners (favorite teams/players, etc.).
4) Don't trade players you just picked up off the waiver wire unless your trade partner requests it.
This week's hot pick up is more than likely either Ryan Hartline, Andre Roberts, or Jackie Battle. If you were lucky enough to grab them off the wire, the only value they hold is to your team. If you're picking up players like this and turning around and offering them up to every other owner in the league blindly, you're likely going to see a lot more rejected proposals. Here's the overall point: if I had wanted that player off the wire, I would have gone and gotten him myself. Other owners will see it this way too. If you're grabbing Hartline this week and turning around trying to get Victor Cruz or Roddy White (in a package of course), you're going to fail. Waiver Wire pickups have been season savers and have helped many owners win fantasy championships (Jamaal Charles in 2009, Peyton Hills in 2010), but unless someone else approaches you to get one of these pick ups, you're only going to get value for these players on your roster. If you went through the waiver process to get one of these guys and someone apparoaches you to get them and are willing to trade a name brand commodity to get them, swing that deal immediately. There is a reason these players were on the wire in the first place. But unless that deal comes to you, you're rostering that player.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Take a Pass on Thursdays
I love the fact that I get NFL Football on my television 3 different days a week. The Thursday Night game is a nice addition to the full season schedule. It seemingly makes the week move faster, doesn't it? I do have one beef with Thursday Night games....they are KILLING my fantasy teams. Week 1's pre-Sunday showdown (yes, I know it was Wednesday, but it gets grouped into this argument) was really the only "good" game of the bunch and everyone on both teams had all off-season to prepare for it. But now that the season is in gear (and 1/4 of the way through after this week's games *sigh*), these Thursday games are proving problematic. Here's my take on Thursday and how you should approach these games when it comes to managing your fantasy teams:
1) Thursday IS the only Primetime game that offers an injury report you can use.
At the very least, because it's the first game of the week, you get an injury report that actually helps you with your lineup. All players were healthy for Week 1, but for Week 2, we knew in plenty of time that Greg Jennings wasn't going to play. For Week 3, we had multiple days' notice that Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw weren't going to play and we knew Jonathan Stewart wasn't going to play more than 3 hours before game time. So that's helpful. The positive to this is that you're given an extra few days to find a great replacement so that your lineup is unaffected. The negative to this is that the short turn-around doesn't allow these men to get the adequate amount of practice time or rest needed to play. Reports were that "If the game had been Sunday", Nicks and Jennings would have played in their respective games. That helps nobody. Your benefit here is that you don't have to plan for last second Sunday or Monday night Inactives and you get the decision out of the way immediately.
2) You're starting your studs.....and that's it.
Tonight's game is Cleveland visiting Baltimore. The only players in this matchup I can recommend starting are Ray Rice and Baltimore's defense. Each of the 3 games thus far have been a fantasy wasteland. Week 1's stars were Tony Romo (24.48 standard points), Miles Austin (13.3 standard points), DeMarco Murray (14.0 standard points) and Ahmad Bradshaw (15.3 standard points). Kevin Ogletree screwed up the way everyone viewed the waiver wire for 2 weeks with a 23.4 pt performance. Missing from fantasy super-stardom were Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Eli Manning, and Jason Witten, all dependable every week starts. Green Bay-Chicago was an absolute fantasy debacle for everyone outside of Mason Crosby and Green Bay's defense. Week 3 was the waiver wire power hour, starring Andre Brown and Ramses Barden. The point is this....because this game occurs first, your strategy has to change....more on this in my next point:
3) Thursday Night is not the time to start sleepers and high upside players.
I look at Week 2 specifically for proof of this point. With Greg Jennings out, the Green Bay receiving corp beyond Jordy Nelson all receiving abnormal amounts of pre-game hype. Randall Cobb and James Jones were supposed to see extended action and be quality sleeper starts. When the game was over, Nelson was the leading receiver for the Packers as expected (6 grabs for 84 yards), but Donald Driver was the leading fantasy scorer (8.6 standard points). Cobb was worth 4.8 pts and Jones was worth a putrid -0.1 pts. To make matters worse, the top Green Bay offensive performer was Cedric Benson with 11.6 pts. Victor Cruz has played in 2 of these games thus far for the Giants and has a total of 10 fantasy points. He managed to score 23.9 points in his one Sunday game. The point is this: if you started Cobb or Jones in Week 2, you were forced to stare at a measly point total for 2 full days before the rest of your team got going on Sunday afternoon. If you're going to start sleepers and high upside players, Sundays and Mondays are the best days to try it. If you get that weak point total on a Sunday, you didn't have to stare at it for 2 additional days wondering what might have been and you don't have to strategize around it. It was just a part of your day and that's it. If at all possible, I like to hold off on sleepers until Monday Nights. Going into Monday, you know where you stand in your matchup and you can at least have a reasonable expectation of what you need to catch up or you know that you've already won and any additional points are gravy at that point. If you're going to try and look like a genius, you have to plan for all potential outcomes and the safest way to do this is to play your sleepers among your best scorers. (Credit for backup on this point goes to NFL Network's Adam Rank (@adamrank on Twitter)....he's not only, in my opinion, the most credible analyst on the network, but he's also a life-guru....give him a follow on Twitter....you won't be disappointed.)
4) Minimize, where possible, what you actually have going on Thursday Night.
As I mentioned above, Ray Rice and Baltimore's Defense are the 2 safest plays going into tonight's game. Rice gets his touches no matter what day of the week and is (in most leagues) a Top 2 fantasy commodity at this point. Baltimore's Defense is an elite unit in an A+ matchup at home against a rookie QB in a divisional game. Here's a primer for what players you should be starting without question for the remaining Thursday Night games (Thanksgiving Day is excluded because there are 3 games on that day):
Week 5: Arizona @ St. Louis (Start Larry Fitzgerald and Arizona's Defense)
Week 6: Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (Start Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace and Anotnio Brown)
Week 7: Seattle @ San Francisco (Start SF's Defense, Seattle's Defense and Vernon Davis)
Week 8: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (Start Adrian Peterson and Vincent Jackson)
Week 9: Kansas City @ San Diego (Start Jamaal Charles and Ryan Mathews)
Week 10: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (Start Reggie Wayne and MJD)
Week 11: Miami @ Buffalo (Start Stevie Johnson, Reggie Bush and whatever Buffalo RB is healthy)
Week 12: Thanksgiving
Week 13: New Orleans @ Atlanta (Start all Saints and Falcons as you usually would)
Week 14: Denver @ Oakland (Start Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Darren McFadden)
Week 15: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia (Start all Bengals and Eagles as you usually would)
You'll notice there are only 2 matchups in which I recommend starting all the usual suspects, and that is Weeks 13 & 15. I have listed who I feel are the safest starts or players who you just can't bench. Is there a chance that by the time these matchups roll around, a new fantasy stud will have emerged? Of course. My opinion remains strong, however, that if you minimize what you have going on Thursday, you can pick up the points you need from these games and have easier lineup decisions to make come Sunday. It's extremely important to not get wrapped up in the schedule as a whole and to start the guys who have done right by you, but let's face it, Sunday is the biggest action day and with the bulk of your team going on that day, you want to maximize your ability to not have to come from behind.
Note: as far as tonight goes, I'm avoiding Trent Richardson, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, & Joe Flacco. If the game was Sunday, I'd comfortably find a way to get these guys in my lineup. I just can't risk a flop tonight, and all of these players are candidates to completely screw up what you've got going for this week. If you have better options, use them.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
1) Thursday IS the only Primetime game that offers an injury report you can use.
At the very least, because it's the first game of the week, you get an injury report that actually helps you with your lineup. All players were healthy for Week 1, but for Week 2, we knew in plenty of time that Greg Jennings wasn't going to play. For Week 3, we had multiple days' notice that Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw weren't going to play and we knew Jonathan Stewart wasn't going to play more than 3 hours before game time. So that's helpful. The positive to this is that you're given an extra few days to find a great replacement so that your lineup is unaffected. The negative to this is that the short turn-around doesn't allow these men to get the adequate amount of practice time or rest needed to play. Reports were that "If the game had been Sunday", Nicks and Jennings would have played in their respective games. That helps nobody. Your benefit here is that you don't have to plan for last second Sunday or Monday night Inactives and you get the decision out of the way immediately.
2) You're starting your studs.....and that's it.
Tonight's game is Cleveland visiting Baltimore. The only players in this matchup I can recommend starting are Ray Rice and Baltimore's defense. Each of the 3 games thus far have been a fantasy wasteland. Week 1's stars were Tony Romo (24.48 standard points), Miles Austin (13.3 standard points), DeMarco Murray (14.0 standard points) and Ahmad Bradshaw (15.3 standard points). Kevin Ogletree screwed up the way everyone viewed the waiver wire for 2 weeks with a 23.4 pt performance. Missing from fantasy super-stardom were Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Eli Manning, and Jason Witten, all dependable every week starts. Green Bay-Chicago was an absolute fantasy debacle for everyone outside of Mason Crosby and Green Bay's defense. Week 3 was the waiver wire power hour, starring Andre Brown and Ramses Barden. The point is this....because this game occurs first, your strategy has to change....more on this in my next point:
3) Thursday Night is not the time to start sleepers and high upside players.
I look at Week 2 specifically for proof of this point. With Greg Jennings out, the Green Bay receiving corp beyond Jordy Nelson all receiving abnormal amounts of pre-game hype. Randall Cobb and James Jones were supposed to see extended action and be quality sleeper starts. When the game was over, Nelson was the leading receiver for the Packers as expected (6 grabs for 84 yards), but Donald Driver was the leading fantasy scorer (8.6 standard points). Cobb was worth 4.8 pts and Jones was worth a putrid -0.1 pts. To make matters worse, the top Green Bay offensive performer was Cedric Benson with 11.6 pts. Victor Cruz has played in 2 of these games thus far for the Giants and has a total of 10 fantasy points. He managed to score 23.9 points in his one Sunday game. The point is this: if you started Cobb or Jones in Week 2, you were forced to stare at a measly point total for 2 full days before the rest of your team got going on Sunday afternoon. If you're going to start sleepers and high upside players, Sundays and Mondays are the best days to try it. If you get that weak point total on a Sunday, you didn't have to stare at it for 2 additional days wondering what might have been and you don't have to strategize around it. It was just a part of your day and that's it. If at all possible, I like to hold off on sleepers until Monday Nights. Going into Monday, you know where you stand in your matchup and you can at least have a reasonable expectation of what you need to catch up or you know that you've already won and any additional points are gravy at that point. If you're going to try and look like a genius, you have to plan for all potential outcomes and the safest way to do this is to play your sleepers among your best scorers. (Credit for backup on this point goes to NFL Network's Adam Rank (@adamrank on Twitter)....he's not only, in my opinion, the most credible analyst on the network, but he's also a life-guru....give him a follow on Twitter....you won't be disappointed.)
4) Minimize, where possible, what you actually have going on Thursday Night.
As I mentioned above, Ray Rice and Baltimore's Defense are the 2 safest plays going into tonight's game. Rice gets his touches no matter what day of the week and is (in most leagues) a Top 2 fantasy commodity at this point. Baltimore's Defense is an elite unit in an A+ matchup at home against a rookie QB in a divisional game. Here's a primer for what players you should be starting without question for the remaining Thursday Night games (Thanksgiving Day is excluded because there are 3 games on that day):
Week 5: Arizona @ St. Louis (Start Larry Fitzgerald and Arizona's Defense)
Week 6: Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (Start Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace and Anotnio Brown)
Week 7: Seattle @ San Francisco (Start SF's Defense, Seattle's Defense and Vernon Davis)
Week 8: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (Start Adrian Peterson and Vincent Jackson)
Week 9: Kansas City @ San Diego (Start Jamaal Charles and Ryan Mathews)
Week 10: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (Start Reggie Wayne and MJD)
Week 11: Miami @ Buffalo (Start Stevie Johnson, Reggie Bush and whatever Buffalo RB is healthy)
Week 12: Thanksgiving
Week 13: New Orleans @ Atlanta (Start all Saints and Falcons as you usually would)
Week 14: Denver @ Oakland (Start Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Darren McFadden)
Week 15: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia (Start all Bengals and Eagles as you usually would)
You'll notice there are only 2 matchups in which I recommend starting all the usual suspects, and that is Weeks 13 & 15. I have listed who I feel are the safest starts or players who you just can't bench. Is there a chance that by the time these matchups roll around, a new fantasy stud will have emerged? Of course. My opinion remains strong, however, that if you minimize what you have going on Thursday, you can pick up the points you need from these games and have easier lineup decisions to make come Sunday. It's extremely important to not get wrapped up in the schedule as a whole and to start the guys who have done right by you, but let's face it, Sunday is the biggest action day and with the bulk of your team going on that day, you want to maximize your ability to not have to come from behind.
Note: as far as tonight goes, I'm avoiding Trent Richardson, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, & Joe Flacco. If the game was Sunday, I'd comfortably find a way to get these guys in my lineup. I just can't risk a flop tonight, and all of these players are candidates to completely screw up what you've got going for this week. If you have better options, use them.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
A Different Strategy
Week 3 of the NFL/Fantasy Football Season is a really great point to analyze what you've done right and what you've done wrong. Which sleepers are working/failing? What is the trade value for a struggling big name? Who is the "drop guy" on my roster? In my 3 leagues, I am sitting at 2-0 in 2 (1st place in both) and 0-2 in the other. In the 0-2 league, I was thwarted by Jay Cutler's poor game against Green Bay, Julio Jones' Monday Night no-show and benching Green Bay's defense. I was able to grab extra points by starting Dwayne Bowe over Marques Colston, but the rest of my lineup was hindered by the 3 culprits above. One thing in common amongst my 3 teams is that I have decided to play matchup defenses and kickers on a weekly basis, as I did not reach for a Top Tier unit like San Francisco or Baltimore in any of my drafts or draft a kicker before my last pick. My personal opinion is that using any pick besides your last two for a defense or kicker in a draft is poor team management. I would rather grab sleepers, rookies, or high-upside backups with my late picks then grab crap-shoot positions like kicker and defense. Here is my strategy for playing matchups at these positions:
Defense
Again, if you're using a mid round (Rounds 9-11) pick on a defense, you're hurting the overall depth of your roster. Obviously, we're way past the point where you can change your draft strategy, but going forward, there is a way to maximize the points you get from this position. The #1 thing I am looking at on a week to week basis when choosing my defense for the week is what team is playing Miami, Cleveland or Seattle. The reason for this is simple: Rookie QBs. Outside of Indy and Washington, where the starting Rookie QBs are team strengths, I feel that Rookie QBs in the NFL are mistake prone and typically don't have the offensive weapons around them to put up huge offensive stats. For instance, Week 3 features Miami vs. the NY Jets, Cleveland vs. Buffalo & Green Bay vs. Seattle. The Jets, Bills & Packers are all talented defenses against normal opponents, but the boost of playing against a rookie QB makes them stronger plays. I have added Buffalo on 2 of my 3 rosters because I feel that Brandon Weeden, despite what he did last week (alot in garbage time and explosive post catch plays), I still feel he is the weakest of the rookie QBs with the least talent surrounding him. Buffalo has a talented front 7 to stop Trent Richardson, forcing Weeden to have to beat them. The Jets would be the 2nd choice, as Ryan Tannehill has shown some flashes of consistency and has Reggie Bush at his disposal. The Dolphins are at home in this matchup and possibly won't have to deal with Darrelle Revis, which makes the Jets slightly more pedestrian. Finally, Green Bay as a defense has been a sieve at times, but they aggressively attack the Quarterback and force turnovers. The reason I have them as #3 amongst this group is that they are travelling to Seattle, which has proven to be a tough place to play for visiting opponents, meaning this game has the best chance of being competitive.
Another strategy to use when picking a matchup defense is to target a struggling offense. My top overall matchup play this week is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who travel to Oakland for a matchup with the 0-2 Raiders. The Raiders struggle in the red zone, have a terrible offensive line, and are failing to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, Darren McFadden. Pittsburgh also might have Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back in their lineup, which makes them a top 3 defense overall. In most leagues, Pittsburgh would have been drafted, but in the case that they are available, grab them and plug them in immediately. The same thing goes for the Philadelphia Eagles playing Arizona this week. Arizona has no running game and a Quarterback who is failing to push the ball downfield. Philly also forces plenty of turnovers.
Kickers
If you drafted a kicker before your last pick, I'm sorry. Kickers are the most unpredictable fantasy commodity because you can never predict how well the attached offense will or won't move the ball. When selecting a kicker, I prefer to analyze the opposing defense. The team I most regularly attack based on this is the Chicago Bears. Teams don't typically score a lot of points against the Bears, but the scheme they employ (The Tampa 2) allows a bend but don't break style. The Bears create pressure from their Defensive Front 4, leaving their linebackers to drop into zone under coverage while the defensive backs cover deeper zones in the field. This allows opposing offenses to move the ball in short bursts, typically into FG kicking range without allowing big plays or long touchdowns. Teams will typically get to attempt more FGs against the Bears because the scheme tightens up as opponents get to the red zone. For this week, I don't reccommend grabbing St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein because I don't think the Rams will move the ball effectively against an angry Bears defense, but opponents with strong offenses will move the ball against this defense and their kickers will have multiple FG opportunities.
Another aspect to consider when picking a kicker are those who are attached to teams that can move the ball, but often struggle to convert in the red zone. Teams like Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco feature offenses that can move the ball up and down the field but will fail to convert touchdowns on a fairly regular basis. These kickers tend to score double digit points because of shear volume and are worth rostering.
Finally, one thing I always look for when selecting a kicker is the Monday Night Matchup. Going in to Monday Night, it's always nice to have one player going to protect a lead or give you an opportunity to catch up if you're down a few points. Because good teams tend to get the Monday Night slot, you can usually find a kicker attached to a good offense that is rosterable for one week at a time. Thus far, Nate Kaeding, Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant have all had double digit points on Monday Night (all in winning efforts). Mason Crosby is likely rostered for this week (Steven Hauscka probably isn't roster-worthy), but Dan Bailey and Robbie Gould play next Monday and are available in some leagues.
Kickers and defense remain an important part of fantasy and can be major contributors. Just riding one individual/unit is OK if you have both David Akers and San Fran's Defense or Justin Tucker and Baltimore's Defense, but since most of us don't, doing a little bit of research into a matchup can help you uncover a diamond in the rough at these spots.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Defense
Again, if you're using a mid round (Rounds 9-11) pick on a defense, you're hurting the overall depth of your roster. Obviously, we're way past the point where you can change your draft strategy, but going forward, there is a way to maximize the points you get from this position. The #1 thing I am looking at on a week to week basis when choosing my defense for the week is what team is playing Miami, Cleveland or Seattle. The reason for this is simple: Rookie QBs. Outside of Indy and Washington, where the starting Rookie QBs are team strengths, I feel that Rookie QBs in the NFL are mistake prone and typically don't have the offensive weapons around them to put up huge offensive stats. For instance, Week 3 features Miami vs. the NY Jets, Cleveland vs. Buffalo & Green Bay vs. Seattle. The Jets, Bills & Packers are all talented defenses against normal opponents, but the boost of playing against a rookie QB makes them stronger plays. I have added Buffalo on 2 of my 3 rosters because I feel that Brandon Weeden, despite what he did last week (alot in garbage time and explosive post catch plays), I still feel he is the weakest of the rookie QBs with the least talent surrounding him. Buffalo has a talented front 7 to stop Trent Richardson, forcing Weeden to have to beat them. The Jets would be the 2nd choice, as Ryan Tannehill has shown some flashes of consistency and has Reggie Bush at his disposal. The Dolphins are at home in this matchup and possibly won't have to deal with Darrelle Revis, which makes the Jets slightly more pedestrian. Finally, Green Bay as a defense has been a sieve at times, but they aggressively attack the Quarterback and force turnovers. The reason I have them as #3 amongst this group is that they are travelling to Seattle, which has proven to be a tough place to play for visiting opponents, meaning this game has the best chance of being competitive.
Another strategy to use when picking a matchup defense is to target a struggling offense. My top overall matchup play this week is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who travel to Oakland for a matchup with the 0-2 Raiders. The Raiders struggle in the red zone, have a terrible offensive line, and are failing to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, Darren McFadden. Pittsburgh also might have Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back in their lineup, which makes them a top 3 defense overall. In most leagues, Pittsburgh would have been drafted, but in the case that they are available, grab them and plug them in immediately. The same thing goes for the Philadelphia Eagles playing Arizona this week. Arizona has no running game and a Quarterback who is failing to push the ball downfield. Philly also forces plenty of turnovers.
Kickers
If you drafted a kicker before your last pick, I'm sorry. Kickers are the most unpredictable fantasy commodity because you can never predict how well the attached offense will or won't move the ball. When selecting a kicker, I prefer to analyze the opposing defense. The team I most regularly attack based on this is the Chicago Bears. Teams don't typically score a lot of points against the Bears, but the scheme they employ (The Tampa 2) allows a bend but don't break style. The Bears create pressure from their Defensive Front 4, leaving their linebackers to drop into zone under coverage while the defensive backs cover deeper zones in the field. This allows opposing offenses to move the ball in short bursts, typically into FG kicking range without allowing big plays or long touchdowns. Teams will typically get to attempt more FGs against the Bears because the scheme tightens up as opponents get to the red zone. For this week, I don't reccommend grabbing St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein because I don't think the Rams will move the ball effectively against an angry Bears defense, but opponents with strong offenses will move the ball against this defense and their kickers will have multiple FG opportunities.
Another aspect to consider when picking a kicker are those who are attached to teams that can move the ball, but often struggle to convert in the red zone. Teams like Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco feature offenses that can move the ball up and down the field but will fail to convert touchdowns on a fairly regular basis. These kickers tend to score double digit points because of shear volume and are worth rostering.
Finally, one thing I always look for when selecting a kicker is the Monday Night Matchup. Going in to Monday Night, it's always nice to have one player going to protect a lead or give you an opportunity to catch up if you're down a few points. Because good teams tend to get the Monday Night slot, you can usually find a kicker attached to a good offense that is rosterable for one week at a time. Thus far, Nate Kaeding, Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant have all had double digit points on Monday Night (all in winning efforts). Mason Crosby is likely rostered for this week (Steven Hauscka probably isn't roster-worthy), but Dan Bailey and Robbie Gould play next Monday and are available in some leagues.
Kickers and defense remain an important part of fantasy and can be major contributors. Just riding one individual/unit is OK if you have both David Akers and San Fran's Defense or Justin Tucker and Baltimore's Defense, but since most of us don't, doing a little bit of research into a matchup can help you uncover a diamond in the rough at these spots.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Approach to Week 2
I hope everyone's Fantasy Season got off to a great start. I personally went 3-1, with my one loss being in my 12-man league where the player who beat me was the only person in the league who could have. I got hosed by the Tracy Porter INT Return for a TD in the Pit-Den game and the "TD" caught by Anquan Boldin in the first half of the Monday Night Doubleheader. Other than that, I couldn't be happier with my drafting and strategy for Week 1. It's not time to be satisifed yet though, as there are 15 more weeks to go. It's still a bit too early to make long term judgements on most players, but here are some things I believe to be true:
1) RGIII is for real.
It's tough to come into the league and dominate as a rookie QB, even with some recent successes like Ryan, Flacco, Dalton and Newton. Robert Griffin III is probably not going to match what Cam Newton did last year, but he probably will perform well enough to be a Top-10 Fantasy QB. With the exception of my 8-man league, where the Free Agent Pool is extremely deep, Griffin was probably drafted in most formats, albeit late, and was likely drafted as a high upside backup to owners who ended up with Rivers, Romo, Eli, or Cutler as their starter. After his extremely impressive debut where he scored 25 points in standard formats, owners are likely penciling RGIII in as a permanent starter. His upcoming schedule is extremely friendly (@STL, CIN, @TB, ATL, MIN) and as far as I can see, a Week 8 clash in Pittsburgh is the only roadblock towards fantasy greatness for the 2011 Heisman Winner. Unless you have Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, or Ryan, you may want to look to see what it would take to snatch Griffin off an opposing roster.
2) I was right last week about Trent Richardson, & I will continue to be right about him.
The 2012 #3 Overall Pick struggled mightily against Philadelphia, among others. The poor QB play was probably the biggest story of the Eagles-Browns game last week, but Richardson's big fat nada stuck out like a sore thumb to me. Trent had 19 carries for 39 yards on the ground and added 1 catch for 5 yards. Is is encouraging to see him handle a 20 touch workload? Yes. Was it a good sign to see that Cleveland appeared committed to getting TRich the rock? Yes. Opposing defenses will continue to stack the box against Cleveland until Brandon Weeden resembles a pro QB. Is Richardson good enough to beat 9 guys 20+ times a game? Maybe someday, but not yet. He has a couple of cupcakes on the schedule (Home Week 3 vs. Buffalo, At Indianapolis Week 7), but until Cleveland shows the ability to play offense at a professional level, I'm selling Richardson. Dangle him out there to your league and see if you can get any other starting RB. In the meantime, I will continue to be the only person who remains down on Trent.
3) BenJarvus Green-Ellis is on his way to a Top-15 RB season. And it will happen...
The Law Firm busted out of the gates with an impressive 95 yard, 1 TD performance against the Baltimore Ravens, who are no slouch at stopping the run, especially at home. The Bengals were pretty bad in the 2nd half on Monday Night, but before the game got out of hand, Green-Ellis was converting short yardage situations, breaking tackles, and showing impressive burst while continuing his trademark ball safety. The Bengals will need to feature the running game in order for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to light it up via the air, which is what they want to do. Seeing Green-Ellis get 19 touches on Monday proved to me that Cincinnati will feature the former Patriot extensively, and the next 5 weeks on the schedule are hardly a murderer's row of run stuffers (CLE, @WAS, @JAX, MIA, @CLE). I'd look to trade for the Law Firm, even if this exact moment might be his highest selling price. He will perform consistently in the 7-15 range of RBs, and should be a lock for double digit points every week as a MINIMUM.
4) The Trio of Questionable Week 1 RBs (AP, MJD, Lynch) are 100% fine. Stop being scared.
Adrian Peterson's ACL was probably the biggest story in the fantasy world for Week 1, and every expert I saw, read, or follow on Twitter said to bench him and see what he does to get a gauge of how is recovery has progressed. I didn't make my statement public, and I'm not going to try to claim that I said "Start Him" in any format Week 1, but I wrote last year (http://the-bernack.blogspot.com/2011/12/always-start-your-studs.html) that if you have a Stud, Start him as long as he is active. In today's NFL, the tag "Active" means that team medical personnel and coaches have determined that the player in question is able to handle a normal workload and, barring re-injury, the player is healthy enough to perform at the highest level. The same goes for Maurice Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch going forward. I wrote in this forum last week how high I was on Rashad Jennings, and we will never know how he would have performed and how the workload would have been split if he doesn't get hurt in the first half. He had 9 total touches when he went down, and if you're looking for the simplest projection, he was in line for 16-18 total touches. Instead, MJD stepped back into his familiar place atop the RB depth chart in Jacksonville and totalled 95 total yards (the typical MJD game). Lynch had 23 total touches versus 3 for potential "Super-Sub" Robert Turbin. Like MJD, Lynch didn't reach the endzone, but 97 total yards is an adequate performance. The point is this: if you own any of these 3, put them in your lineup and leave them there unless they are Inactive. If you don't own any of them, you still want to target them in trades from owners who are nervous about owning them/
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
1) RGIII is for real.
It's tough to come into the league and dominate as a rookie QB, even with some recent successes like Ryan, Flacco, Dalton and Newton. Robert Griffin III is probably not going to match what Cam Newton did last year, but he probably will perform well enough to be a Top-10 Fantasy QB. With the exception of my 8-man league, where the Free Agent Pool is extremely deep, Griffin was probably drafted in most formats, albeit late, and was likely drafted as a high upside backup to owners who ended up with Rivers, Romo, Eli, or Cutler as their starter. After his extremely impressive debut where he scored 25 points in standard formats, owners are likely penciling RGIII in as a permanent starter. His upcoming schedule is extremely friendly (@STL, CIN, @TB, ATL, MIN) and as far as I can see, a Week 8 clash in Pittsburgh is the only roadblock towards fantasy greatness for the 2011 Heisman Winner. Unless you have Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, or Ryan, you may want to look to see what it would take to snatch Griffin off an opposing roster.
2) I was right last week about Trent Richardson, & I will continue to be right about him.
The 2012 #3 Overall Pick struggled mightily against Philadelphia, among others. The poor QB play was probably the biggest story of the Eagles-Browns game last week, but Richardson's big fat nada stuck out like a sore thumb to me. Trent had 19 carries for 39 yards on the ground and added 1 catch for 5 yards. Is is encouraging to see him handle a 20 touch workload? Yes. Was it a good sign to see that Cleveland appeared committed to getting TRich the rock? Yes. Opposing defenses will continue to stack the box against Cleveland until Brandon Weeden resembles a pro QB. Is Richardson good enough to beat 9 guys 20+ times a game? Maybe someday, but not yet. He has a couple of cupcakes on the schedule (Home Week 3 vs. Buffalo, At Indianapolis Week 7), but until Cleveland shows the ability to play offense at a professional level, I'm selling Richardson. Dangle him out there to your league and see if you can get any other starting RB. In the meantime, I will continue to be the only person who remains down on Trent.
3) BenJarvus Green-Ellis is on his way to a Top-15 RB season. And it will happen...
The Law Firm busted out of the gates with an impressive 95 yard, 1 TD performance against the Baltimore Ravens, who are no slouch at stopping the run, especially at home. The Bengals were pretty bad in the 2nd half on Monday Night, but before the game got out of hand, Green-Ellis was converting short yardage situations, breaking tackles, and showing impressive burst while continuing his trademark ball safety. The Bengals will need to feature the running game in order for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to light it up via the air, which is what they want to do. Seeing Green-Ellis get 19 touches on Monday proved to me that Cincinnati will feature the former Patriot extensively, and the next 5 weeks on the schedule are hardly a murderer's row of run stuffers (CLE, @WAS, @JAX, MIA, @CLE). I'd look to trade for the Law Firm, even if this exact moment might be his highest selling price. He will perform consistently in the 7-15 range of RBs, and should be a lock for double digit points every week as a MINIMUM.
4) The Trio of Questionable Week 1 RBs (AP, MJD, Lynch) are 100% fine. Stop being scared.
Adrian Peterson's ACL was probably the biggest story in the fantasy world for Week 1, and every expert I saw, read, or follow on Twitter said to bench him and see what he does to get a gauge of how is recovery has progressed. I didn't make my statement public, and I'm not going to try to claim that I said "Start Him" in any format Week 1, but I wrote last year (http://the-bernack.blogspot.com/2011/12/always-start-your-studs.html) that if you have a Stud, Start him as long as he is active. In today's NFL, the tag "Active" means that team medical personnel and coaches have determined that the player in question is able to handle a normal workload and, barring re-injury, the player is healthy enough to perform at the highest level. The same goes for Maurice Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch going forward. I wrote in this forum last week how high I was on Rashad Jennings, and we will never know how he would have performed and how the workload would have been split if he doesn't get hurt in the first half. He had 9 total touches when he went down, and if you're looking for the simplest projection, he was in line for 16-18 total touches. Instead, MJD stepped back into his familiar place atop the RB depth chart in Jacksonville and totalled 95 total yards (the typical MJD game). Lynch had 23 total touches versus 3 for potential "Super-Sub" Robert Turbin. Like MJD, Lynch didn't reach the endzone, but 97 total yards is an adequate performance. The point is this: if you own any of these 3, put them in your lineup and leave them there unless they are Inactive. If you don't own any of them, you still want to target them in trades from owners who are nervous about owning them/
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
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