Fantasy Basketball for Newbs

Fantasy Basketball is, in my opinion, the easiest Fantasy Sport to play.  There isn't a lot of line up speculation or second guessing like there is in Fantasy Football.  It isn't the same kind of daily grind as Fantasy Baseball.  The drafts are shorter and not as deep.  I personally am playing Fantasy Basketball for the first time in 7 years this season, mainly because I wanted to get myself back into the game itself and be a more "well-rounded" fantasy guru.  I took control of a team in an 8 Man, Head to Head League amongst friends.  A player had committed to the league spot, missed the draft, had his team auto picked (based on default rankings), and then quit.  I was offered the roster and I decided to take on the challenge.  In the middle of the 5th week, I am currently in 3rd place and dealing with a lot of injuries.  My top players are Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joe Johnson, all Top 10 players based on current Yahoo default rankings.  I also made a savvy roster move very early on by picking up Ryan Anderson from the Orlando Magic, who currently leads the entire NBA in 3 Pt FG Made (3PM), averages just short of 17 pts and 7 rebounds and has Forward and Center eligibility.  I am waiting for my 2nd round pick, Stephen Curry, to pan out as he recovers from multiple ankle sprains. 

I got to thinking that since I am learning how to play the game again, I would share a few of my findings with my readers, as I feel that I can't offer a more advanced opinion until about mid-season, when teams will have settled in to what they will be and players have their defined roles determined after 25-30 games.  Here's what I know:

1) If you're drafting #1 or #2, you can't go wrong with LeBron James or Kevin Durant.  Based on current statistics, there is very little difference in the impact these two have to the fantasy game, but the overall message is that they are leaps and bounds above every other player.  Both score and rebound.  LeBron gets you assists, steals and blocks while KD makes plenty of 3's, shoots 50% from the field and hits 80% of his FTs.  They were ranked 1-2 in the preseason (KD then LBJ) and are currently ranked 1-2 (LBJ then KD).  They deliver what is promised and unless there is an injury that keeps either out for a prolonged period of time, they will remain the top 2 players in the game.

2) Follow the Rankings.  It is hard to keep up with every box score across the league, so a great tool to use is the player rankings on whichever site you play on.  Yahoo's site allows you to select every player and sort by individual statistics (if you're struggling in one or two different categories) or you can sort by overall rankings.  I find that if you start in Week 1 and add players who get off to hot starts, you not only rack up the stats for yourself, but you have roster flexibility when those guys predictably cool off.  When those guys cool off, you pick up the next group of guys who move into the Top 25-30.  Unlike football, the basketball player rankings fluctuate during the week, so it is easier to keep track of who is on the rise and who is falling without a week to week guessing game.

3) From Monday-Saturday, start everyone you can fit into your lineup.  I feel you are better off not over analyzing matchups as a newbie.  You want to compile statistics in a head to head league especially, and worrying too much about your FG and FT percentages should be the least of your concerns.  If you have Kobe Bryant, for example, your FG % is typically going to be lower anyways, because Kobe takes a ton of shots and currently shoots 45% from the field.  He will drag down the entire team's percentage with one bad shooting game during a week.  Worry about your points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.  3 Pointers and turnovers will work themselves out, but if you lock up those 5 categories every week, you'll win your matchup.  Use Sundays to judge where you stand in the percentage and turnover game.  If your opponent only has 1 guy going and you have a substantial lead in the %'s or an edge in turnovers, why start the 3-4 guys you have and risk losing your lead in those categories? 

4) Rookies have more impact here than in any other fantasy sport.  In the NBA, rookies (especially lottery picks) get an immediate opportunity to play.  Kyrie Irving, this year's #1 overall pick, is currently the 20th ranked Point Guard and 64th ranked player overall.  That's an immediate impact.  He's ranked ahead of top tier PGs like Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, and Jason Kidd.  The point is that rookies get a chance in this league more than any other.  They have a place on your fantasy roster.

I'll offer a little bit more advanced analysis once we get to the midseason point.  I'm getting back into the NBA the way I used to be when I was younger and my team (Chicago Bulls) was actually good. 

Early, EARLY 2012 Draft Preview

Congratulations to those of you who were able to wrangle in a Fantasy Football Championship this year.  I appreciate those of you who sought out my advice or took it during the crucial weeks of the season.  I always seem to have a knack for helping teams that aren't mine!!!

Anyways, I wanted to put my final stamp on the season by giving a few suggestions and opinions on the 2012 draft, now approximately 8 months away:

1) If you can't get a Stud RB, you are better off loading up on Top Tier WRs or an Elite QB.  In 2011, 10 QBs surpassed 4000 yds passing while 3 broke the vaunted 5000 yd mark.  The age of the passing game is upon us, and it is not a trend I see changing any time soon.  17 WRs and 2 TEs broke the 1000 yd mark while 25 WR, 6 TEs and 1 RB (quick....can anyone guess who?) scored 7 or more Receiving TDs.  Only 16 RBs scored 7 or more Rushing TDs and only 15 broke the 1000 yd Rushing plane.  In Yahoo standard scoring, only 6 RBs were among the Top 25 players while 7 WRs or TEs broke the Top 25 plane.  The other 12 spots (including the Top 5) were QBs.  My suggestion is simply this: the day of going RB-RB in a fantasy draft is seemingly over.  If you can pair one Stud RB with a grouping of stud WRs and an Elite QB, you are better built for success than waiting 3 rounds to take your first WR.  Build your team based on balance and know that teams using RB by committee is the new standard.

2) Beware of RBs coming off major injury and pay attention to offseason activity.  Every Fantasy Football publication is going to have RBs filling the top of their mock draft boards, and despite some pretty nasty injuries to some 1st round caliber RBs, these publications will advise you to risk your first pick on the healing legs of players like Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendehall, Matt Forte, and Darren McFadden.  You should use a top pick on these types of players if they are given the go to handle a decent preseason workload.  I would never advise you to pass on proven talents if they are healthy.  What I do advise is to get the most value from each and every pick.  For example, my league's draft order for 2012 is set and I'll be drafting 6th overall.  The top 2 picks belong to the two teams that missed the playoffs and do not have a keeper.  Based on the players who were kept in my league, I am anticipating my draft board to look like this up until my pick:
1) Ray Rice
2) Chris Johnson
3) Drew Brees (The Owner picking 3rd has kept Adrian Peterson)
4) Jamaal Charles (The Owner picking 4th has kept Matt Forte)
5) Brady, Newton or Stafford (The Owner picking 5th has kept Arian Foster)
Picking 6th and having kept Aaron Rodgers, I have a few top RB choices like MJD, Mathews, Turner, Lynch, and Frank Gore.  In this position, I would prefer drafting Calvin Johnson.  Calvin outscored MJD by only 1.2 pts in non-PPR scoring, but with a Top Tier QB and the #1 WR on the board, I can build my team around this nucleus and probably have better success than grabbing the 7th or 8th best RB.  On the way back, I can still have a Top 10 WR available to me or the bottom of the Top 10 RBs.  I can grab RBs like CJ Spiller, Roy Helu, Ahmad Bradshaw, or Reggie Bush later in the draft and still be incredibly balanced.  You leave yourself with a deeper team by taking the value at each pick rather than strictly subscribing to RB-RB.

3) Be careful buying into the hype of players coming off of career seasons.  Victor Cruz and Marshawn Lynch immediately come to mind.  Cruz is no longer an unknown commodity in the NFL and Lynch just had a career season and will likely hit the FA market and find a new team.  Jordy Nelson is an interesting case, as he is still tied to the most dynamic offense in the NFL, but can you draft him in the position he finished (#2 WR overall)??  I would still take Mike Wallace, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, and Larry Fitzgerald before I reached for Jordy.  Think Late 3rd/Early 4th round on guys like this. 

4) Go into your draft with your own research and pick guys you trust.  Having no information about 2012 at my finger tips, I can already reveal that players like AJ Green, CJ Spiller, Roy Helu, Jeremy Maclin, and Julio Jones will rank quite highly at their individual positions in my personal rankings.  You really have to explore outside the realm of fantasy to rank your own players, and the way you do this is by analyzing schedules, watching how teams stock up during Free Agency and the Draft, and finding out what players are approaching contract years.  The years Matt Forte and Ray Rice had should have come as no surprise to football fans, as each of them were playing for new contracts.  These are the tidbits you need to know that have nothing to do with your fantasy roster directly that will help in your pre-draft analysis.

The draft is the best part of the fantasy season for most owners.  Only one owner can win the whole thing, so collectively, draft day brings the most optimism, debate, and fun to each season.  It's always interesting to look back and see what grabs you made that paid off and if you were right on your sleeper picks.

I'm going to be writing periodically during the offseason with my take on the NFL as a whole and developing fantasy stories for 2012.  I am going to transition to Fantasy NBA as well, as I am playing in a league this year and want to try to offer my take on that.

By the way, the 1 RB who hauled in 7 Receiving TDs was Darren Sproles, widely undrafted in many leagues!