Early, EARLY 2012 Draft Preview

Congratulations to those of you who were able to wrangle in a Fantasy Football Championship this year.  I appreciate those of you who sought out my advice or took it during the crucial weeks of the season.  I always seem to have a knack for helping teams that aren't mine!!!

Anyways, I wanted to put my final stamp on the season by giving a few suggestions and opinions on the 2012 draft, now approximately 8 months away:

1) If you can't get a Stud RB, you are better off loading up on Top Tier WRs or an Elite QB.  In 2011, 10 QBs surpassed 4000 yds passing while 3 broke the vaunted 5000 yd mark.  The age of the passing game is upon us, and it is not a trend I see changing any time soon.  17 WRs and 2 TEs broke the 1000 yd mark while 25 WR, 6 TEs and 1 RB (quick....can anyone guess who?) scored 7 or more Receiving TDs.  Only 16 RBs scored 7 or more Rushing TDs and only 15 broke the 1000 yd Rushing plane.  In Yahoo standard scoring, only 6 RBs were among the Top 25 players while 7 WRs or TEs broke the Top 25 plane.  The other 12 spots (including the Top 5) were QBs.  My suggestion is simply this: the day of going RB-RB in a fantasy draft is seemingly over.  If you can pair one Stud RB with a grouping of stud WRs and an Elite QB, you are better built for success than waiting 3 rounds to take your first WR.  Build your team based on balance and know that teams using RB by committee is the new standard.

2) Beware of RBs coming off major injury and pay attention to offseason activity.  Every Fantasy Football publication is going to have RBs filling the top of their mock draft boards, and despite some pretty nasty injuries to some 1st round caliber RBs, these publications will advise you to risk your first pick on the healing legs of players like Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendehall, Matt Forte, and Darren McFadden.  You should use a top pick on these types of players if they are given the go to handle a decent preseason workload.  I would never advise you to pass on proven talents if they are healthy.  What I do advise is to get the most value from each and every pick.  For example, my league's draft order for 2012 is set and I'll be drafting 6th overall.  The top 2 picks belong to the two teams that missed the playoffs and do not have a keeper.  Based on the players who were kept in my league, I am anticipating my draft board to look like this up until my pick:
1) Ray Rice
2) Chris Johnson
3) Drew Brees (The Owner picking 3rd has kept Adrian Peterson)
4) Jamaal Charles (The Owner picking 4th has kept Matt Forte)
5) Brady, Newton or Stafford (The Owner picking 5th has kept Arian Foster)
Picking 6th and having kept Aaron Rodgers, I have a few top RB choices like MJD, Mathews, Turner, Lynch, and Frank Gore.  In this position, I would prefer drafting Calvin Johnson.  Calvin outscored MJD by only 1.2 pts in non-PPR scoring, but with a Top Tier QB and the #1 WR on the board, I can build my team around this nucleus and probably have better success than grabbing the 7th or 8th best RB.  On the way back, I can still have a Top 10 WR available to me or the bottom of the Top 10 RBs.  I can grab RBs like CJ Spiller, Roy Helu, Ahmad Bradshaw, or Reggie Bush later in the draft and still be incredibly balanced.  You leave yourself with a deeper team by taking the value at each pick rather than strictly subscribing to RB-RB.

3) Be careful buying into the hype of players coming off of career seasons.  Victor Cruz and Marshawn Lynch immediately come to mind.  Cruz is no longer an unknown commodity in the NFL and Lynch just had a career season and will likely hit the FA market and find a new team.  Jordy Nelson is an interesting case, as he is still tied to the most dynamic offense in the NFL, but can you draft him in the position he finished (#2 WR overall)??  I would still take Mike Wallace, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, and Larry Fitzgerald before I reached for Jordy.  Think Late 3rd/Early 4th round on guys like this. 

4) Go into your draft with your own research and pick guys you trust.  Having no information about 2012 at my finger tips, I can already reveal that players like AJ Green, CJ Spiller, Roy Helu, Jeremy Maclin, and Julio Jones will rank quite highly at their individual positions in my personal rankings.  You really have to explore outside the realm of fantasy to rank your own players, and the way you do this is by analyzing schedules, watching how teams stock up during Free Agency and the Draft, and finding out what players are approaching contract years.  The years Matt Forte and Ray Rice had should have come as no surprise to football fans, as each of them were playing for new contracts.  These are the tidbits you need to know that have nothing to do with your fantasy roster directly that will help in your pre-draft analysis.

The draft is the best part of the fantasy season for most owners.  Only one owner can win the whole thing, so collectively, draft day brings the most optimism, debate, and fun to each season.  It's always interesting to look back and see what grabs you made that paid off and if you were right on your sleeper picks.

I'm going to be writing periodically during the offseason with my take on the NFL as a whole and developing fantasy stories for 2012.  I am going to transition to Fantasy NBA as well, as I am playing in a league this year and want to try to offer my take on that.

By the way, the 1 RB who hauled in 7 Receiving TDs was Darren Sproles, widely undrafted in many leagues!