I love the fact that I get NFL Football on my television 3 different days a week. The Thursday Night game is a nice addition to the full season schedule. It seemingly makes the week move faster, doesn't it? I do have one beef with Thursday Night games....they are KILLING my fantasy teams. Week 1's pre-Sunday showdown (yes, I know it was Wednesday, but it gets grouped into this argument) was really the only "good" game of the bunch and everyone on both teams had all off-season to prepare for it. But now that the season is in gear (and 1/4 of the way through after this week's games *sigh*), these Thursday games are proving problematic. Here's my take on Thursday and how you should approach these games when it comes to managing your fantasy teams:
1) Thursday IS the only Primetime game that offers an injury report you can use.
At the very least, because it's the first game of the week, you get an injury report that actually helps you with your lineup. All players were healthy for Week 1, but for Week 2, we knew in plenty of time that Greg Jennings wasn't going to play. For Week 3, we had multiple days' notice that Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw weren't going to play and we knew Jonathan Stewart wasn't going to play more than 3 hours before game time. So that's helpful. The positive to this is that you're given an extra few days to find a great replacement so that your lineup is unaffected. The negative to this is that the short turn-around doesn't allow these men to get the adequate amount of practice time or rest needed to play. Reports were that "If the game had been Sunday", Nicks and Jennings would have played in their respective games. That helps nobody. Your benefit here is that you don't have to plan for last second Sunday or Monday night Inactives and you get the decision out of the way immediately.
2) You're starting your studs.....and that's it.
Tonight's game is Cleveland visiting Baltimore. The only players in this matchup I can recommend starting are Ray Rice and Baltimore's defense. Each of the 3 games thus far have been a fantasy wasteland. Week 1's stars were Tony Romo (24.48 standard points), Miles Austin (13.3 standard points), DeMarco Murray (14.0 standard points) and Ahmad Bradshaw (15.3 standard points). Kevin Ogletree screwed up the way everyone viewed the waiver wire for 2 weeks with a 23.4 pt performance. Missing from fantasy super-stardom were Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Eli Manning, and Jason Witten, all dependable every week starts. Green Bay-Chicago was an absolute fantasy debacle for everyone outside of Mason Crosby and Green Bay's defense. Week 3 was the waiver wire power hour, starring Andre Brown and Ramses Barden. The point is this....because this game occurs first, your strategy has to change....more on this in my next point:
3) Thursday Night is not the time to start sleepers and high upside players.
I look at Week 2 specifically for proof of this point. With Greg Jennings out, the Green Bay receiving corp beyond Jordy Nelson all receiving abnormal amounts of pre-game hype. Randall Cobb and James Jones were supposed to see extended action and be quality sleeper starts. When the game was over, Nelson was the leading receiver for the Packers as expected (6 grabs for 84 yards), but Donald Driver was the leading fantasy scorer (8.6 standard points). Cobb was worth 4.8 pts and Jones was worth a putrid -0.1 pts. To make matters worse, the top Green Bay offensive performer was Cedric Benson with 11.6 pts. Victor Cruz has played in 2 of these games thus far for the Giants and has a total of 10 fantasy points. He managed to score 23.9 points in his one Sunday game. The point is this: if you started Cobb or Jones in Week 2, you were forced to stare at a measly point total for 2 full days before the rest of your team got going on Sunday afternoon. If you're going to start sleepers and high upside players, Sundays and Mondays are the best days to try it. If you get that weak point total on a Sunday, you didn't have to stare at it for 2 additional days wondering what might have been and you don't have to strategize around it. It was just a part of your day and that's it. If at all possible, I like to hold off on sleepers until Monday Nights. Going into Monday, you know where you stand in your matchup and you can at least have a reasonable expectation of what you need to catch up or you know that you've already won and any additional points are gravy at that point. If you're going to try and look like a genius, you have to plan for all potential outcomes and the safest way to do this is to play your sleepers among your best scorers. (Credit for backup on this point goes to NFL Network's Adam Rank (@adamrank on Twitter)....he's not only, in my opinion, the most credible analyst on the network, but he's also a life-guru....give him a follow on Twitter....you won't be disappointed.)
4) Minimize, where possible, what you actually have going on Thursday Night.
As I mentioned above, Ray Rice and Baltimore's Defense are the 2 safest plays going into tonight's game. Rice gets his touches no matter what day of the week and is (in most leagues) a Top 2 fantasy commodity at this point. Baltimore's Defense is an elite unit in an A+ matchup at home against a rookie QB in a divisional game. Here's a primer for what players you should be starting without question for the remaining Thursday Night games (Thanksgiving Day is excluded because there are 3 games on that day):
Week 5: Arizona @ St. Louis (Start Larry Fitzgerald and Arizona's Defense)
Week 6: Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (Start Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace and Anotnio Brown)
Week 7: Seattle @ San Francisco (Start SF's Defense, Seattle's Defense and Vernon Davis)
Week 8: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (Start Adrian Peterson and Vincent Jackson)
Week 9: Kansas City @ San Diego (Start Jamaal Charles and Ryan Mathews)
Week 10: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (Start Reggie Wayne and MJD)
Week 11: Miami @ Buffalo (Start Stevie Johnson, Reggie Bush and whatever Buffalo RB is healthy)
Week 12: Thanksgiving
Week 13: New Orleans @ Atlanta (Start all Saints and Falcons as you usually would)
Week 14: Denver @ Oakland (Start Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Darren McFadden)
Week 15: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia (Start all Bengals and Eagles as you usually would)
You'll notice there are only 2 matchups in which I recommend starting all the usual suspects, and that is Weeks 13 & 15. I have listed who I feel are the safest starts or players who you just can't bench. Is there a chance that by the time these matchups roll around, a new fantasy stud will have emerged? Of course. My opinion remains strong, however, that if you minimize what you have going on Thursday, you can pick up the points you need from these games and have easier lineup decisions to make come Sunday. It's extremely important to not get wrapped up in the schedule as a whole and to start the guys who have done right by you, but let's face it, Sunday is the biggest action day and with the bulk of your team going on that day, you want to maximize your ability to not have to come from behind.
Note: as far as tonight goes, I'm avoiding Trent Richardson, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, & Joe Flacco. If the game was Sunday, I'd comfortably find a way to get these guys in my lineup. I just can't risk a flop tonight, and all of these players are candidates to completely screw up what you've got going for this week. If you have better options, use them.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Decision Making Tool for the Fantasy Sports Fanatic looking for Non-Obvious Solutions for Long Term Fantasy Sports Success.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
A Different Strategy
Week 3 of the NFL/Fantasy Football Season is a really great point to analyze what you've done right and what you've done wrong. Which sleepers are working/failing? What is the trade value for a struggling big name? Who is the "drop guy" on my roster? In my 3 leagues, I am sitting at 2-0 in 2 (1st place in both) and 0-2 in the other. In the 0-2 league, I was thwarted by Jay Cutler's poor game against Green Bay, Julio Jones' Monday Night no-show and benching Green Bay's defense. I was able to grab extra points by starting Dwayne Bowe over Marques Colston, but the rest of my lineup was hindered by the 3 culprits above. One thing in common amongst my 3 teams is that I have decided to play matchup defenses and kickers on a weekly basis, as I did not reach for a Top Tier unit like San Francisco or Baltimore in any of my drafts or draft a kicker before my last pick. My personal opinion is that using any pick besides your last two for a defense or kicker in a draft is poor team management. I would rather grab sleepers, rookies, or high-upside backups with my late picks then grab crap-shoot positions like kicker and defense. Here is my strategy for playing matchups at these positions:
Defense
Again, if you're using a mid round (Rounds 9-11) pick on a defense, you're hurting the overall depth of your roster. Obviously, we're way past the point where you can change your draft strategy, but going forward, there is a way to maximize the points you get from this position. The #1 thing I am looking at on a week to week basis when choosing my defense for the week is what team is playing Miami, Cleveland or Seattle. The reason for this is simple: Rookie QBs. Outside of Indy and Washington, where the starting Rookie QBs are team strengths, I feel that Rookie QBs in the NFL are mistake prone and typically don't have the offensive weapons around them to put up huge offensive stats. For instance, Week 3 features Miami vs. the NY Jets, Cleveland vs. Buffalo & Green Bay vs. Seattle. The Jets, Bills & Packers are all talented defenses against normal opponents, but the boost of playing against a rookie QB makes them stronger plays. I have added Buffalo on 2 of my 3 rosters because I feel that Brandon Weeden, despite what he did last week (alot in garbage time and explosive post catch plays), I still feel he is the weakest of the rookie QBs with the least talent surrounding him. Buffalo has a talented front 7 to stop Trent Richardson, forcing Weeden to have to beat them. The Jets would be the 2nd choice, as Ryan Tannehill has shown some flashes of consistency and has Reggie Bush at his disposal. The Dolphins are at home in this matchup and possibly won't have to deal with Darrelle Revis, which makes the Jets slightly more pedestrian. Finally, Green Bay as a defense has been a sieve at times, but they aggressively attack the Quarterback and force turnovers. The reason I have them as #3 amongst this group is that they are travelling to Seattle, which has proven to be a tough place to play for visiting opponents, meaning this game has the best chance of being competitive.
Another strategy to use when picking a matchup defense is to target a struggling offense. My top overall matchup play this week is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who travel to Oakland for a matchup with the 0-2 Raiders. The Raiders struggle in the red zone, have a terrible offensive line, and are failing to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, Darren McFadden. Pittsburgh also might have Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back in their lineup, which makes them a top 3 defense overall. In most leagues, Pittsburgh would have been drafted, but in the case that they are available, grab them and plug them in immediately. The same thing goes for the Philadelphia Eagles playing Arizona this week. Arizona has no running game and a Quarterback who is failing to push the ball downfield. Philly also forces plenty of turnovers.
Kickers
If you drafted a kicker before your last pick, I'm sorry. Kickers are the most unpredictable fantasy commodity because you can never predict how well the attached offense will or won't move the ball. When selecting a kicker, I prefer to analyze the opposing defense. The team I most regularly attack based on this is the Chicago Bears. Teams don't typically score a lot of points against the Bears, but the scheme they employ (The Tampa 2) allows a bend but don't break style. The Bears create pressure from their Defensive Front 4, leaving their linebackers to drop into zone under coverage while the defensive backs cover deeper zones in the field. This allows opposing offenses to move the ball in short bursts, typically into FG kicking range without allowing big plays or long touchdowns. Teams will typically get to attempt more FGs against the Bears because the scheme tightens up as opponents get to the red zone. For this week, I don't reccommend grabbing St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein because I don't think the Rams will move the ball effectively against an angry Bears defense, but opponents with strong offenses will move the ball against this defense and their kickers will have multiple FG opportunities.
Another aspect to consider when picking a kicker are those who are attached to teams that can move the ball, but often struggle to convert in the red zone. Teams like Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco feature offenses that can move the ball up and down the field but will fail to convert touchdowns on a fairly regular basis. These kickers tend to score double digit points because of shear volume and are worth rostering.
Finally, one thing I always look for when selecting a kicker is the Monday Night Matchup. Going in to Monday Night, it's always nice to have one player going to protect a lead or give you an opportunity to catch up if you're down a few points. Because good teams tend to get the Monday Night slot, you can usually find a kicker attached to a good offense that is rosterable for one week at a time. Thus far, Nate Kaeding, Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant have all had double digit points on Monday Night (all in winning efforts). Mason Crosby is likely rostered for this week (Steven Hauscka probably isn't roster-worthy), but Dan Bailey and Robbie Gould play next Monday and are available in some leagues.
Kickers and defense remain an important part of fantasy and can be major contributors. Just riding one individual/unit is OK if you have both David Akers and San Fran's Defense or Justin Tucker and Baltimore's Defense, but since most of us don't, doing a little bit of research into a matchup can help you uncover a diamond in the rough at these spots.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Defense
Again, if you're using a mid round (Rounds 9-11) pick on a defense, you're hurting the overall depth of your roster. Obviously, we're way past the point where you can change your draft strategy, but going forward, there is a way to maximize the points you get from this position. The #1 thing I am looking at on a week to week basis when choosing my defense for the week is what team is playing Miami, Cleveland or Seattle. The reason for this is simple: Rookie QBs. Outside of Indy and Washington, where the starting Rookie QBs are team strengths, I feel that Rookie QBs in the NFL are mistake prone and typically don't have the offensive weapons around them to put up huge offensive stats. For instance, Week 3 features Miami vs. the NY Jets, Cleveland vs. Buffalo & Green Bay vs. Seattle. The Jets, Bills & Packers are all talented defenses against normal opponents, but the boost of playing against a rookie QB makes them stronger plays. I have added Buffalo on 2 of my 3 rosters because I feel that Brandon Weeden, despite what he did last week (alot in garbage time and explosive post catch plays), I still feel he is the weakest of the rookie QBs with the least talent surrounding him. Buffalo has a talented front 7 to stop Trent Richardson, forcing Weeden to have to beat them. The Jets would be the 2nd choice, as Ryan Tannehill has shown some flashes of consistency and has Reggie Bush at his disposal. The Dolphins are at home in this matchup and possibly won't have to deal with Darrelle Revis, which makes the Jets slightly more pedestrian. Finally, Green Bay as a defense has been a sieve at times, but they aggressively attack the Quarterback and force turnovers. The reason I have them as #3 amongst this group is that they are travelling to Seattle, which has proven to be a tough place to play for visiting opponents, meaning this game has the best chance of being competitive.
Another strategy to use when picking a matchup defense is to target a struggling offense. My top overall matchup play this week is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who travel to Oakland for a matchup with the 0-2 Raiders. The Raiders struggle in the red zone, have a terrible offensive line, and are failing to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, Darren McFadden. Pittsburgh also might have Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back in their lineup, which makes them a top 3 defense overall. In most leagues, Pittsburgh would have been drafted, but in the case that they are available, grab them and plug them in immediately. The same thing goes for the Philadelphia Eagles playing Arizona this week. Arizona has no running game and a Quarterback who is failing to push the ball downfield. Philly also forces plenty of turnovers.
Kickers
If you drafted a kicker before your last pick, I'm sorry. Kickers are the most unpredictable fantasy commodity because you can never predict how well the attached offense will or won't move the ball. When selecting a kicker, I prefer to analyze the opposing defense. The team I most regularly attack based on this is the Chicago Bears. Teams don't typically score a lot of points against the Bears, but the scheme they employ (The Tampa 2) allows a bend but don't break style. The Bears create pressure from their Defensive Front 4, leaving their linebackers to drop into zone under coverage while the defensive backs cover deeper zones in the field. This allows opposing offenses to move the ball in short bursts, typically into FG kicking range without allowing big plays or long touchdowns. Teams will typically get to attempt more FGs against the Bears because the scheme tightens up as opponents get to the red zone. For this week, I don't reccommend grabbing St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein because I don't think the Rams will move the ball effectively against an angry Bears defense, but opponents with strong offenses will move the ball against this defense and their kickers will have multiple FG opportunities.
Another aspect to consider when picking a kicker are those who are attached to teams that can move the ball, but often struggle to convert in the red zone. Teams like Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco feature offenses that can move the ball up and down the field but will fail to convert touchdowns on a fairly regular basis. These kickers tend to score double digit points because of shear volume and are worth rostering.
Finally, one thing I always look for when selecting a kicker is the Monday Night Matchup. Going in to Monday Night, it's always nice to have one player going to protect a lead or give you an opportunity to catch up if you're down a few points. Because good teams tend to get the Monday Night slot, you can usually find a kicker attached to a good offense that is rosterable for one week at a time. Thus far, Nate Kaeding, Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant have all had double digit points on Monday Night (all in winning efforts). Mason Crosby is likely rostered for this week (Steven Hauscka probably isn't roster-worthy), but Dan Bailey and Robbie Gould play next Monday and are available in some leagues.
Kickers and defense remain an important part of fantasy and can be major contributors. Just riding one individual/unit is OK if you have both David Akers and San Fran's Defense or Justin Tucker and Baltimore's Defense, but since most of us don't, doing a little bit of research into a matchup can help you uncover a diamond in the rough at these spots.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Approach to Week 2
I hope everyone's Fantasy Season got off to a great start. I personally went 3-1, with my one loss being in my 12-man league where the player who beat me was the only person in the league who could have. I got hosed by the Tracy Porter INT Return for a TD in the Pit-Den game and the "TD" caught by Anquan Boldin in the first half of the Monday Night Doubleheader. Other than that, I couldn't be happier with my drafting and strategy for Week 1. It's not time to be satisifed yet though, as there are 15 more weeks to go. It's still a bit too early to make long term judgements on most players, but here are some things I believe to be true:
1) RGIII is for real.
It's tough to come into the league and dominate as a rookie QB, even with some recent successes like Ryan, Flacco, Dalton and Newton. Robert Griffin III is probably not going to match what Cam Newton did last year, but he probably will perform well enough to be a Top-10 Fantasy QB. With the exception of my 8-man league, where the Free Agent Pool is extremely deep, Griffin was probably drafted in most formats, albeit late, and was likely drafted as a high upside backup to owners who ended up with Rivers, Romo, Eli, or Cutler as their starter. After his extremely impressive debut where he scored 25 points in standard formats, owners are likely penciling RGIII in as a permanent starter. His upcoming schedule is extremely friendly (@STL, CIN, @TB, ATL, MIN) and as far as I can see, a Week 8 clash in Pittsburgh is the only roadblock towards fantasy greatness for the 2011 Heisman Winner. Unless you have Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, or Ryan, you may want to look to see what it would take to snatch Griffin off an opposing roster.
2) I was right last week about Trent Richardson, & I will continue to be right about him.
The 2012 #3 Overall Pick struggled mightily against Philadelphia, among others. The poor QB play was probably the biggest story of the Eagles-Browns game last week, but Richardson's big fat nada stuck out like a sore thumb to me. Trent had 19 carries for 39 yards on the ground and added 1 catch for 5 yards. Is is encouraging to see him handle a 20 touch workload? Yes. Was it a good sign to see that Cleveland appeared committed to getting TRich the rock? Yes. Opposing defenses will continue to stack the box against Cleveland until Brandon Weeden resembles a pro QB. Is Richardson good enough to beat 9 guys 20+ times a game? Maybe someday, but not yet. He has a couple of cupcakes on the schedule (Home Week 3 vs. Buffalo, At Indianapolis Week 7), but until Cleveland shows the ability to play offense at a professional level, I'm selling Richardson. Dangle him out there to your league and see if you can get any other starting RB. In the meantime, I will continue to be the only person who remains down on Trent.
3) BenJarvus Green-Ellis is on his way to a Top-15 RB season. And it will happen...
The Law Firm busted out of the gates with an impressive 95 yard, 1 TD performance against the Baltimore Ravens, who are no slouch at stopping the run, especially at home. The Bengals were pretty bad in the 2nd half on Monday Night, but before the game got out of hand, Green-Ellis was converting short yardage situations, breaking tackles, and showing impressive burst while continuing his trademark ball safety. The Bengals will need to feature the running game in order for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to light it up via the air, which is what they want to do. Seeing Green-Ellis get 19 touches on Monday proved to me that Cincinnati will feature the former Patriot extensively, and the next 5 weeks on the schedule are hardly a murderer's row of run stuffers (CLE, @WAS, @JAX, MIA, @CLE). I'd look to trade for the Law Firm, even if this exact moment might be his highest selling price. He will perform consistently in the 7-15 range of RBs, and should be a lock for double digit points every week as a MINIMUM.
4) The Trio of Questionable Week 1 RBs (AP, MJD, Lynch) are 100% fine. Stop being scared.
Adrian Peterson's ACL was probably the biggest story in the fantasy world for Week 1, and every expert I saw, read, or follow on Twitter said to bench him and see what he does to get a gauge of how is recovery has progressed. I didn't make my statement public, and I'm not going to try to claim that I said "Start Him" in any format Week 1, but I wrote last year (http://the-bernack.blogspot.com/2011/12/always-start-your-studs.html) that if you have a Stud, Start him as long as he is active. In today's NFL, the tag "Active" means that team medical personnel and coaches have determined that the player in question is able to handle a normal workload and, barring re-injury, the player is healthy enough to perform at the highest level. The same goes for Maurice Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch going forward. I wrote in this forum last week how high I was on Rashad Jennings, and we will never know how he would have performed and how the workload would have been split if he doesn't get hurt in the first half. He had 9 total touches when he went down, and if you're looking for the simplest projection, he was in line for 16-18 total touches. Instead, MJD stepped back into his familiar place atop the RB depth chart in Jacksonville and totalled 95 total yards (the typical MJD game). Lynch had 23 total touches versus 3 for potential "Super-Sub" Robert Turbin. Like MJD, Lynch didn't reach the endzone, but 97 total yards is an adequate performance. The point is this: if you own any of these 3, put them in your lineup and leave them there unless they are Inactive. If you don't own any of them, you still want to target them in trades from owners who are nervous about owning them/
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
1) RGIII is for real.
It's tough to come into the league and dominate as a rookie QB, even with some recent successes like Ryan, Flacco, Dalton and Newton. Robert Griffin III is probably not going to match what Cam Newton did last year, but he probably will perform well enough to be a Top-10 Fantasy QB. With the exception of my 8-man league, where the Free Agent Pool is extremely deep, Griffin was probably drafted in most formats, albeit late, and was likely drafted as a high upside backup to owners who ended up with Rivers, Romo, Eli, or Cutler as their starter. After his extremely impressive debut where he scored 25 points in standard formats, owners are likely penciling RGIII in as a permanent starter. His upcoming schedule is extremely friendly (@STL, CIN, @TB, ATL, MIN) and as far as I can see, a Week 8 clash in Pittsburgh is the only roadblock towards fantasy greatness for the 2011 Heisman Winner. Unless you have Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, or Ryan, you may want to look to see what it would take to snatch Griffin off an opposing roster.
2) I was right last week about Trent Richardson, & I will continue to be right about him.
The 2012 #3 Overall Pick struggled mightily against Philadelphia, among others. The poor QB play was probably the biggest story of the Eagles-Browns game last week, but Richardson's big fat nada stuck out like a sore thumb to me. Trent had 19 carries for 39 yards on the ground and added 1 catch for 5 yards. Is is encouraging to see him handle a 20 touch workload? Yes. Was it a good sign to see that Cleveland appeared committed to getting TRich the rock? Yes. Opposing defenses will continue to stack the box against Cleveland until Brandon Weeden resembles a pro QB. Is Richardson good enough to beat 9 guys 20+ times a game? Maybe someday, but not yet. He has a couple of cupcakes on the schedule (Home Week 3 vs. Buffalo, At Indianapolis Week 7), but until Cleveland shows the ability to play offense at a professional level, I'm selling Richardson. Dangle him out there to your league and see if you can get any other starting RB. In the meantime, I will continue to be the only person who remains down on Trent.
3) BenJarvus Green-Ellis is on his way to a Top-15 RB season. And it will happen...
The Law Firm busted out of the gates with an impressive 95 yard, 1 TD performance against the Baltimore Ravens, who are no slouch at stopping the run, especially at home. The Bengals were pretty bad in the 2nd half on Monday Night, but before the game got out of hand, Green-Ellis was converting short yardage situations, breaking tackles, and showing impressive burst while continuing his trademark ball safety. The Bengals will need to feature the running game in order for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to light it up via the air, which is what they want to do. Seeing Green-Ellis get 19 touches on Monday proved to me that Cincinnati will feature the former Patriot extensively, and the next 5 weeks on the schedule are hardly a murderer's row of run stuffers (CLE, @WAS, @JAX, MIA, @CLE). I'd look to trade for the Law Firm, even if this exact moment might be his highest selling price. He will perform consistently in the 7-15 range of RBs, and should be a lock for double digit points every week as a MINIMUM.
4) The Trio of Questionable Week 1 RBs (AP, MJD, Lynch) are 100% fine. Stop being scared.
Adrian Peterson's ACL was probably the biggest story in the fantasy world for Week 1, and every expert I saw, read, or follow on Twitter said to bench him and see what he does to get a gauge of how is recovery has progressed. I didn't make my statement public, and I'm not going to try to claim that I said "Start Him" in any format Week 1, but I wrote last year (http://the-bernack.blogspot.com/2011/12/always-start-your-studs.html) that if you have a Stud, Start him as long as he is active. In today's NFL, the tag "Active" means that team medical personnel and coaches have determined that the player in question is able to handle a normal workload and, barring re-injury, the player is healthy enough to perform at the highest level. The same goes for Maurice Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch going forward. I wrote in this forum last week how high I was on Rashad Jennings, and we will never know how he would have performed and how the workload would have been split if he doesn't get hurt in the first half. He had 9 total touches when he went down, and if you're looking for the simplest projection, he was in line for 16-18 total touches. Instead, MJD stepped back into his familiar place atop the RB depth chart in Jacksonville and totalled 95 total yards (the typical MJD game). Lynch had 23 total touches versus 3 for potential "Super-Sub" Robert Turbin. Like MJD, Lynch didn't reach the endzone, but 97 total yards is an adequate performance. The point is this: if you own any of these 3, put them in your lineup and leave them there unless they are Inactive. If you don't own any of them, you still want to target them in trades from owners who are nervous about owning them/
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Week 1 Overview
NFL Football is back!!! Time to take care of your to-do lists on Saturday people because Thursday Nights, Sundays, and Monday Nights are booked up for the next 3+ months. You've got your teams, which you love right now, and it's time to start making some decisions. Regardless of the depth of your respective league, the typical owner will go down to the last minute with at least 1-2 roster decisions on a weekly basis. Heck, in my most important league, I'm still toggling with a decision on my flex spot (Rashad Jennings or Reggie Bush). Here are some names that most fantasy owners will be going back and forth on up until kickoff on Sunday (note: I will go through tonight's sit/starts at the end of the post, so I'm not ignoring tonight's action):
1) Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
After last season, it's pretty tough to want to bench Beanie, and unless you have better options, Beanie is someone that should, for the most part, be plugged into your lineup without much of a thought. The major issue I have with Wells going into this season is the emergence of Ryan Williams. I am very interested to see how the workload is going to be split up, yes, but the more important issue is whether or not Arizona is going to be any good. If Arizona is what I expect them to be, which is a 6-10/7-9 club, they are more likely to be playing from behind on a fairly regular basis, meaning the running game isn't going to get the kind of featurning Fantasy Owners would like to see to play Wells with confidence. The Cardinals will play 10 of their 16 games starting at 4:25 EST Sunday or later, meaning that unless you have additional West Coast RBs, you are going to be forced into a decision on Beanie earlier than you'd like. Here's how he stacks up against Seattle for this week: 4 career games, 42 carries for 168 yards (4.0 YPC), 3 catches for 39 yards (13.0 YPC) and 3 TDs (9.68 fantasy points per contest). Keep in mind he did appear in 1 game vs. Seattle in which he did not touch the ball, and the bulk of the numbers come from 1 game in 2009 in which he rushed for 85 yards, caught 2 balls for 32 yards and scored 2 TDs. This is enough for me to lean strongly towards benching Beanie this week. Beanie is flex-worthy in a 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex league, but in most standard formats, you can find someone better. Wait to see what kind of shape he is in and how the workload is going to be split up before moving on Beanie in 2012.
2) Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
For the past 2-3 seasons, when you've seen an RB on your roster matching up with Buffalo, you've pretty much always been confident plugging that guy in and watching the results. Did you know that Shonn Greene has never scored a TD against Buffalo? This is a fact. In the 5 games Greene has appeared in vs. Buffalo, he has exceeded 10 fantasy points (standard scoring) only once, and that was a 117 yard performance against Buffalo in 2010. In 2011, Buffalo was the 3rd most generous fantasy team vs. RBs and the fact that Greene only managed to pile up 16.6 fantasy points (8.3 per game) against them is a sorry stat. I am fully on board with benching him to open the season this year because Greene and the rest of the Jets have been completely stagnant during this preseason, and while I am an advocate for the preseason not mattering much, I also believe that you can at least gather tendencies from these meaningless contests. Let this Jets offense turn into something before you start them. Bench Greene this week even if you don't have better options. If you don't have better options, shame on you.
3) Houston Texans' Passing Game
Matt Schaub has been the Texans Week 1 starting QB for the last 5 seasons and he has yet to throw for more than 225 Yards in any of those contests. He has also never thrown for more TDs than INTs in a Week 1 game (4 TDs: 7 INTs). Houston is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as AFC South Champs in 2012 and I predict that they will get off to the right start towards acheiving that goal this season, but it won't be because of the passing game. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are easily the league's best 1-2 punch in he backfield and with a Top 5 defense, this team should have no trouble imposing their physical will on the hapless Dolphins. I can see Schaub putting up around 175-200 yards through the air, maybe 1 TD and probably 1 INT in a game he doesn't have to control with his arm. You aren't starting any Texans WR not named Andre Johnson and while you can't bench Andre 3000, I would definitely temper my expectations for him this week and understand that this passing game will be dynamic at times during the season...just not this week. You also should be prepared to have a better option at TE than Owen Daniels. He will get his work in the middle of the field, but the depth available at TE this season is greater than it ever has been before. Look elsewhere.
4) Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville
There is very little statisical backing that supports a pro-start argument for Rashad Jennings. You really have to use the eye test and your gut when it comes to this beast from tiny Liberty College. Here's the facts: Jennings has run reps with the Jags' 1st team offense all preseason while MJD has been holding out. He gained 209 yards on 47 carries this preseason (4.4 YPC) and Jacksonville showed life on offense. Jennings averages 5.4 YPC over his career while showing an ability to be a reliable receiver out of the backfield. MJD ended his hold out this past Sunday and while I feel he is a vital part to the Jaguars' success this season, I feel the Jags would be prudent to ease him back into game action and that includes this weekend vs. Minnesota. With MJD supposedly relegated to 3rd down duty, I see Jennings taking advantage of his opportunity this weekend and hitting paydirt at least once. The major case against Jennings: he has only received 15 carries or more twice in his career. So what do you do? I say that in leagues with a flex spot, Jennings is an easy start. He is a fringe RB2 this week only because no one can possibly know what to expect from Jacksonville's offense. If this team is any good this week and moving forward, it will be because their passing game prevents defenses from stacking 8 or 9 men in the box. That is a tall task, considering the mountain Blaine Gabbert has to climb towards respectability. This game is the opportunity to break out of anonymity for Jennings, and I feel he takes full advantage.
Tonight's Game (Dallas @ New York):
Start: Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, DeMarco Murray
Sit: Both Defenses, All TEs
Sleeper Potential: David Wilson
Notice I didn't mention Ahmad Bradshaw at all. I can't suggest sitting him, but he is definitely not a Must-Start. Depending on where you drafted him will dictate your usage of him. If he was one of your top 2 RBs selected, you are likely forced to start him and I don't disagree with that. If you have better options, I would suggest sitting him.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
1) Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
After last season, it's pretty tough to want to bench Beanie, and unless you have better options, Beanie is someone that should, for the most part, be plugged into your lineup without much of a thought. The major issue I have with Wells going into this season is the emergence of Ryan Williams. I am very interested to see how the workload is going to be split up, yes, but the more important issue is whether or not Arizona is going to be any good. If Arizona is what I expect them to be, which is a 6-10/7-9 club, they are more likely to be playing from behind on a fairly regular basis, meaning the running game isn't going to get the kind of featurning Fantasy Owners would like to see to play Wells with confidence. The Cardinals will play 10 of their 16 games starting at 4:25 EST Sunday or later, meaning that unless you have additional West Coast RBs, you are going to be forced into a decision on Beanie earlier than you'd like. Here's how he stacks up against Seattle for this week: 4 career games, 42 carries for 168 yards (4.0 YPC), 3 catches for 39 yards (13.0 YPC) and 3 TDs (9.68 fantasy points per contest). Keep in mind he did appear in 1 game vs. Seattle in which he did not touch the ball, and the bulk of the numbers come from 1 game in 2009 in which he rushed for 85 yards, caught 2 balls for 32 yards and scored 2 TDs. This is enough for me to lean strongly towards benching Beanie this week. Beanie is flex-worthy in a 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex league, but in most standard formats, you can find someone better. Wait to see what kind of shape he is in and how the workload is going to be split up before moving on Beanie in 2012.
2) Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
For the past 2-3 seasons, when you've seen an RB on your roster matching up with Buffalo, you've pretty much always been confident plugging that guy in and watching the results. Did you know that Shonn Greene has never scored a TD against Buffalo? This is a fact. In the 5 games Greene has appeared in vs. Buffalo, he has exceeded 10 fantasy points (standard scoring) only once, and that was a 117 yard performance against Buffalo in 2010. In 2011, Buffalo was the 3rd most generous fantasy team vs. RBs and the fact that Greene only managed to pile up 16.6 fantasy points (8.3 per game) against them is a sorry stat. I am fully on board with benching him to open the season this year because Greene and the rest of the Jets have been completely stagnant during this preseason, and while I am an advocate for the preseason not mattering much, I also believe that you can at least gather tendencies from these meaningless contests. Let this Jets offense turn into something before you start them. Bench Greene this week even if you don't have better options. If you don't have better options, shame on you.
3) Houston Texans' Passing Game
Matt Schaub has been the Texans Week 1 starting QB for the last 5 seasons and he has yet to throw for more than 225 Yards in any of those contests. He has also never thrown for more TDs than INTs in a Week 1 game (4 TDs: 7 INTs). Houston is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as AFC South Champs in 2012 and I predict that they will get off to the right start towards acheiving that goal this season, but it won't be because of the passing game. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are easily the league's best 1-2 punch in he backfield and with a Top 5 defense, this team should have no trouble imposing their physical will on the hapless Dolphins. I can see Schaub putting up around 175-200 yards through the air, maybe 1 TD and probably 1 INT in a game he doesn't have to control with his arm. You aren't starting any Texans WR not named Andre Johnson and while you can't bench Andre 3000, I would definitely temper my expectations for him this week and understand that this passing game will be dynamic at times during the season...just not this week. You also should be prepared to have a better option at TE than Owen Daniels. He will get his work in the middle of the field, but the depth available at TE this season is greater than it ever has been before. Look elsewhere.
4) Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville
There is very little statisical backing that supports a pro-start argument for Rashad Jennings. You really have to use the eye test and your gut when it comes to this beast from tiny Liberty College. Here's the facts: Jennings has run reps with the Jags' 1st team offense all preseason while MJD has been holding out. He gained 209 yards on 47 carries this preseason (4.4 YPC) and Jacksonville showed life on offense. Jennings averages 5.4 YPC over his career while showing an ability to be a reliable receiver out of the backfield. MJD ended his hold out this past Sunday and while I feel he is a vital part to the Jaguars' success this season, I feel the Jags would be prudent to ease him back into game action and that includes this weekend vs. Minnesota. With MJD supposedly relegated to 3rd down duty, I see Jennings taking advantage of his opportunity this weekend and hitting paydirt at least once. The major case against Jennings: he has only received 15 carries or more twice in his career. So what do you do? I say that in leagues with a flex spot, Jennings is an easy start. He is a fringe RB2 this week only because no one can possibly know what to expect from Jacksonville's offense. If this team is any good this week and moving forward, it will be because their passing game prevents defenses from stacking 8 or 9 men in the box. That is a tall task, considering the mountain Blaine Gabbert has to climb towards respectability. This game is the opportunity to break out of anonymity for Jennings, and I feel he takes full advantage.
Tonight's Game (Dallas @ New York):
Start: Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, DeMarco Murray
Sit: Both Defenses, All TEs
Sleeper Potential: David Wilson
Notice I didn't mention Ahmad Bradshaw at all. I can't suggest sitting him, but he is definitely not a Must-Start. Depending on where you drafted him will dictate your usage of him. If he was one of your top 2 RBs selected, you are likely forced to start him and I don't disagree with that. If you have better options, I would suggest sitting him.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
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