A Different Strategy

Week 3 of the NFL/Fantasy Football Season is a really great point to analyze what you've done right and what you've done wrong.  Which sleepers are working/failing?  What is the trade value for a struggling big name?  Who is the "drop guy" on my roster?  In my 3 leagues, I am sitting at 2-0 in 2 (1st place in both) and 0-2 in the other.  In the 0-2 league, I was thwarted by Jay Cutler's poor game against Green Bay, Julio Jones' Monday Night no-show and benching Green Bay's defense.  I was able to grab extra points by starting Dwayne Bowe over Marques Colston, but the rest of my lineup was hindered by the 3 culprits above.  One thing in common amongst my 3 teams is that I have decided to play matchup defenses and kickers on a weekly basis, as I did not reach for a Top Tier unit like San Francisco or Baltimore in any of my drafts or draft a kicker before my last pick.  My personal opinion is that using any pick besides your last two for a defense or kicker in a draft is poor team management.  I would rather grab sleepers, rookies, or high-upside backups with my late picks then grab crap-shoot positions like kicker and defense.  Here is my strategy for playing matchups at these positions:

Defense

Again, if you're using a mid round (Rounds 9-11) pick on a defense, you're hurting the overall depth of your roster.  Obviously, we're way past the point where you can change your draft strategy, but going forward, there is a way to maximize the points you get from this position.  The #1 thing I am looking at on a week to week basis when choosing my defense for the week is what team is playing Miami, Cleveland or Seattle.  The reason for this is simple: Rookie QBs.  Outside of Indy and Washington, where the starting Rookie QBs are team strengths, I feel that Rookie QBs in the NFL are mistake prone and typically don't have the offensive weapons around them to put up huge offensive stats.  For instance, Week 3 features Miami vs. the NY Jets, Cleveland vs. Buffalo & Green Bay vs. Seattle.  The Jets, Bills & Packers are all talented defenses against normal opponents, but the boost of playing against a rookie QB makes them stronger plays.  I have added Buffalo on 2 of my 3 rosters because I feel that Brandon Weeden, despite what he did last week (alot in garbage time and explosive post catch plays), I still feel he is the weakest of the rookie QBs with the least talent surrounding him.  Buffalo has a talented front 7 to stop Trent Richardson, forcing Weeden to have to beat them.  The Jets would be the 2nd choice, as Ryan Tannehill has shown some flashes of consistency and has Reggie Bush at his disposal.  The Dolphins are at home in this matchup and possibly won't have to deal with Darrelle Revis, which makes the Jets slightly more pedestrian.  Finally, Green Bay as a defense has been a sieve at times, but they aggressively attack the Quarterback and force turnovers.  The reason I have them as #3 amongst this group is that they are travelling to Seattle, which has proven to be a tough place to play for visiting opponents, meaning this game has the best chance of being competitive.

Another strategy to use when picking a matchup defense is to target a struggling offense.  My top overall matchup play this week is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who travel to Oakland for a matchup with the 0-2 Raiders.  The Raiders struggle in the red zone, have a terrible offensive line, and are failing to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, Darren McFadden.  Pittsburgh also might have Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back in their lineup, which makes them a top 3 defense overall.  In most leagues, Pittsburgh would have been drafted, but in the case that they are available, grab them and plug them in immediately.  The same thing goes for the Philadelphia Eagles playing Arizona this week.  Arizona has no running game and a Quarterback who is failing to push the ball downfield.  Philly also forces plenty of turnovers.

Kickers

If you drafted a kicker before your last pick, I'm sorry.  Kickers are the most unpredictable fantasy commodity because you can never predict how well the attached offense will or won't move the ball.  When selecting a kicker, I prefer to analyze the opposing defense.  The team I most regularly attack based on this is the Chicago Bears.  Teams don't typically score a lot of points against the Bears, but the scheme they employ (The Tampa 2) allows a bend but don't break style.  The Bears create pressure from their Defensive Front 4, leaving their linebackers to drop into zone under coverage while the defensive backs cover deeper zones in the field.  This allows opposing offenses to move the ball in short bursts, typically into FG kicking range without allowing big plays or long touchdowns.  Teams will typically get to attempt more FGs against the Bears because the scheme tightens up as opponents get to the red zone.  For this week, I don't reccommend grabbing St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein because I don't think the Rams will move the ball effectively against an angry Bears defense, but opponents with strong offenses will move the ball against this defense and their kickers will have multiple FG opportunities. 

Another aspect to consider when picking a kicker are those who are attached to teams that can move the ball, but often struggle to convert in the red zone.  Teams like Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco feature offenses that can move the ball up and down the field but will fail to convert touchdowns on a fairly regular basis.  These kickers tend to score double digit points because of shear volume and are worth rostering.

Finally, one thing I always look for when selecting a kicker is the Monday Night Matchup.  Going in to Monday Night, it's always nice to have one player going to protect a lead or give you an opportunity to catch up if you're down a few points.  Because good teams tend to get the Monday Night slot, you can usually find a kicker attached to a good offense that is rosterable for one week at a time.  Thus far, Nate Kaeding, Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant have all had double digit points on Monday Night (all in winning efforts).  Mason Crosby is likely rostered for this week (Steven Hauscka probably isn't roster-worthy), but Dan Bailey and Robbie Gould play next Monday and are available in some leagues.

Kickers and defense remain an important part of fantasy and can be major contributors.  Just riding one individual/unit is OK if you have both David Akers and San Fran's Defense or Justin Tucker and Baltimore's Defense, but since most of us don't, doing a little bit of research into a matchup can help you uncover a diamond in the rough at these spots.

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