Approach to Week 2

I hope everyone's Fantasy Season got off to a great start.  I personally went 3-1, with my one loss being in my 12-man league where the player who beat me was the only person in the league who could have.  I got hosed by the Tracy Porter INT Return for a TD in the Pit-Den game and the "TD" caught by Anquan Boldin in the first half of the Monday Night Doubleheader.  Other than that, I couldn't be happier with my drafting and strategy for Week 1.  It's not time to be satisifed yet though, as there are 15 more weeks to go.  It's still a bit too early to make long term judgements on most players, but here are some things I believe to be true:

1) RGIII is for real.

It's tough to come into the league and dominate as a rookie QB, even with some recent successes like Ryan, Flacco, Dalton and Newton.  Robert Griffin III is probably not going to match what Cam Newton did last year, but he probably will perform well enough to be a Top-10 Fantasy QB.  With the exception of my 8-man league, where the Free Agent Pool is extremely deep, Griffin was probably drafted in most formats, albeit late, and was likely drafted as a high upside backup to owners who ended up with Rivers, Romo, Eli, or Cutler as their starter.  After his extremely impressive debut where he scored 25 points in standard formats, owners are likely penciling RGIII in as a permanent starter.  His upcoming schedule is extremely friendly (@STL, CIN, @TB, ATL, MIN) and as far as I can see, a Week 8 clash in Pittsburgh is the only roadblock towards fantasy greatness for the 2011 Heisman Winner.  Unless you have Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, or Ryan, you may want to look to see what it would take to snatch Griffin off an opposing roster. 

2) I was right last week about Trent Richardson, & I will continue to be right about him.

The 2012 #3 Overall Pick struggled mightily against Philadelphia, among others.  The poor QB play was probably the biggest story of the Eagles-Browns game last week, but Richardson's big fat nada stuck out like a sore thumb to me.  Trent had 19 carries for 39 yards on the ground and added 1 catch for 5 yards.  Is is encouraging to see him handle a 20 touch workload?  Yes.  Was it a good sign to see that Cleveland appeared committed to getting TRich the rock?  Yes.  Opposing defenses will continue to stack the box against Cleveland until Brandon Weeden resembles a pro QB.  Is Richardson good enough to beat 9 guys 20+ times a game?  Maybe someday, but not yet.  He has a couple of cupcakes on the schedule (Home Week 3 vs. Buffalo, At Indianapolis Week 7), but until Cleveland shows the ability to play offense at a professional level, I'm selling Richardson.  Dangle him out there to your league and see if you can get any other starting RB.  In the meantime, I will continue to be the only person who remains down on Trent.

3) BenJarvus Green-Ellis is on his way to a Top-15 RB season.  And it will happen...

The Law Firm busted out of the gates with an impressive 95 yard, 1 TD performance against the Baltimore Ravens, who are no slouch at stopping the run, especially at home.  The Bengals were pretty bad in the 2nd half on Monday Night, but before the game got out of hand, Green-Ellis was converting short yardage situations, breaking tackles, and showing impressive burst while continuing his trademark ball safety.  The Bengals will need to feature the running game in order for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to light it up via the air, which is what they want to do.  Seeing Green-Ellis get 19 touches on Monday proved to me that Cincinnati will feature the former Patriot extensively, and the next 5 weeks on the schedule are hardly a murderer's row of run stuffers (CLE, @WAS, @JAX, MIA, @CLE).  I'd look to trade for the Law Firm, even if this exact moment might be his highest selling price.  He will perform consistently in the 7-15 range of RBs, and should be a lock for double digit points every week as a MINIMUM.

4) The Trio of Questionable Week 1 RBs (AP, MJD, Lynch) are 100% fine.  Stop being scared.

Adrian Peterson's ACL was probably the biggest story in the fantasy world for Week 1, and every expert I saw, read, or follow on Twitter said to bench him and see what he does to get a gauge of how is recovery has progressed.  I didn't make my statement public, and I'm not going to try to claim that I said "Start Him" in any format Week 1, but I wrote last year (http://the-bernack.blogspot.com/2011/12/always-start-your-studs.html) that if you have a Stud, Start him as long as he is active.  In today's NFL, the tag "Active" means that team medical personnel and coaches have determined that the player in question is able to handle a normal workload and, barring re-injury, the player is healthy enough to perform at the highest level.  The same goes for Maurice Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch going forward.  I wrote in this forum last week how high I was on Rashad Jennings, and we will never know how he would have performed and how the workload would have been split if he doesn't get hurt in the first half.  He had 9 total touches when he went down, and if you're looking for the simplest projection, he was in line for 16-18 total touches.  Instead, MJD stepped back into his familiar place atop the RB depth chart in Jacksonville and totalled 95 total yards (the typical MJD game).  Lynch had 23 total touches versus 3 for potential "Super-Sub" Robert Turbin.  Like MJD, Lynch didn't reach the endzone, but 97 total yards is an adequate performance.  The point is this: if you own any of these 3, put them in your lineup and leave them there unless they are Inactive.  If you don't own any of them, you still want to target them in trades from owners who are nervous about owning them/

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