The end of Week 7 was the official beginning of the 2nd half of the Fantasy Football season. When you looked at the updated standings on Tuesday morning, how did you feel about your current position? Those of us at 7-0, 6-1, or 5-2 are probably feeling pretty confident that we can maintain, make the playoffs, & challenge for a league championship. If you're sitting at 4-3 or 3-4, you're obviously smack dab in the middle of the pack, wondering what might have been if you had made 1 or 2 different roster moves or if you had pulled the trigger on a trade that seemed silly back in Week 2. If you're at 2-5, 1-6 or 0-7, desperation is now starting to settle in. Those of us in these deep holes are looking for any way to pull ourselves out of the depths of Fantasy Football shame and at least find a way to end the season on a high note OR claw your way back into contention. Here is your "Rest of the Season" strategy guide for your current position in your league:
7-0, 6-1 or 5-2
In 3 of my leagues, each of these Win/Loss totals represents the current record of the team in first place, and also happen to be my Win/Loss records. I won't spend alot of time talking about the league I'm 7-0 in, as it is a gimmick league with a small amount of managers, wacky scoring, and loaded rosters with a deep free agent pool. In the league where I am 6-1, I am not only sitting in 1st by myself, but I also lead the league in points scored and winning margin, which are the top two tie-breakers. I have a showdown with the team in 2nd place this week, who trails me by 1 game and 38 points. My major bye week (Week 7) has passed and my roster is fully loaded for the stretch run. In the league where I am 5-2, I am tied for 1st, trailing by just over 20 points with a 1 game, 14 point cushion over 3rd place. I play the team in last place this week who loses 3 RBs this week (2 to bye, 1 to injury). These scenarios likely represent where you stand in your league if you hold one of these win/loss records. The only advice I can give to you is this: Stay the course. You've obviously traded shrewdly, hit the Waiver Wire hard and had a little bit of luck to get to this point. Don't get desperate for a deal that doesn't need to be made. Address your weaknesses now by shedding depth in exchange for studs. Come playoff time, you want to have your roster decisions at a bare minimum and the best way to do that is to shed off players who are simply backups on your roster to a team that needs depth to push themselves into playoff position. We're deep enough into the season where it is entirely possible that you have 2 every week starters at QB, 4 or more startable WRs and a crop of RBs that have all passed their bye week. If you are in need of a long term solution at TE or you feel like 1 additional stud would make your roster complete, trade 2 players for that stud. Remember this though...you're in the position of power. Your spot in the playoffs is more secure than those teams trailing you in the standings and you don't have to seek out a deal. Let deals come to you. You can still afford to sell high and buy low. Take calculated risks that don't affect the overall balance of your team.
4-3 or 3-4
Depending on your league's playoff format, players with these records are likely on the fringe of being out of the playoffs. You not only need to monitor wins and losses very closely, but you also need to score consistent point totals to hold on to your spot. Owners who currently sit with one of these records should be looking at their rosters and identifying the weaknesses. They exist. In one of my leagues, 4-3 is the record of the team currently in 3rd place who has lost 3 straight to fall from 1st. They are suffering through bye weeks because while their full strength starting lineup is incredibly strong, they lack depth to replace key players on bye. In this position, I would be looking to see how many STARTING QUALITY players I could get back for my stud player. In this specific example, that player is Ray Rice. Nobody wants to be in a position where they are looking to sell Ray Rice when they are right in the middle of the playoff hunt, I get that. But if depth is your issue and you are hitting the wire every week for a flex starter, getting 2 starting RBs for Ray Rice is a great move for your team, especially when half of the league has already had their bye week. If you could move Ray Rice and get back a Reggie Bush and Fred Jackson, who individually are steps behind Rice but together solve an overall depth issue, that would be a prudent move. You have to manage your team week to week with an eye focused on the upcoming weeks. 4-3 or 3-4 teams should be active traders at this time and they have the most flexibility in who they want to trade with. Teams at the top of the standings are less likely to trade with those hanging around them, as nobody wants to help their closest competitor improve. When you sit in the middle of the pack, you are trying to make 1 for 2's with the teams ahead of you and even strength (1 for 1, 2 for 2) moves with those in the same position while still having the standings power to acquire a stud from the teams below you in the standings in a 2 for 1 move. Remember, the more top-tier players you can accumulate, the more starting quality players you can receive back in return. Be aggressive and shake up your roster. The Waiver Wire is no longer your friend.
2-5, 1-6 or 0-7
If you sit at 0-7, I'm sorry, you're likely out of it. 6-7 or 7-7 (depending on what week your league's playoffs start) is usually not going to be good enough to make the playoffs, and having to jump over half of your league to get into the playoffs is an unlikely scenario. Do those ahead of you a favor and maintain the integrity of your league by not having a firesale. Don't skew the results of the season just because you've had some bad luck. Trade fairly, continue to update your starting roster and stay active with your team. Trading Arian Foster or LeSean McCoy for 3 Waiver Wire type players is a move that screws over those who have worked hard to get themselves into position to win.
If you sit at 2-5 or 1-6, you still have a shot. Here's how:
1) You need to take advantage of your Waiver priority when you have it and make sure you snag the hot waiver wire players before those ahead of you.
2) Make as many 1 for 2 deals as you can and assemble a roster that can compete on a week to week basis. If a player like Jamaal Charles is your best player, package him with one of your WRs and get 3 players back from a team who can solidify their core with a player like Charles. When you're on the side getting back more than you trade, it allows you to clean up your bench and drop players who have absolutely no business still being on a roster.
3) You need to manage week to week, so if you're facing someone who owns Aaron Rodgers this week, try to trade for or pick up his favorite targets. Nelson, Cobb, Jones & Jennings are obviously going to be owned in almost every league, so put together packages that get you back players like this. You have to neutralize your opponent's best weapons where you can. The bright spot is once you move away from the matchup, you can easily move guys like Cobb and Jones to the next owner facing Rodgers and get back players you need to neutralize the next matchup.
4) Take advantage of matchups. You want to start players who are facing Tennessee, Buffalo, Washington, Cleveland, Oakland and Jacksonville because these defenses are fantasy friendly. You cannot put yourself in a position where you are resigned to the fate of starting someone in a bad matchup. You need upside at every position. If you can see that your 2nd tier RB is playing at Chicago, you want to bench that guy who isn't going to do anything for you.
When assembling a week to week roster, you can only game plan for who you're facing and what matchups are available to you.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Decision Making Tool for the Fantasy Sports Fanatic looking for Non-Obvious Solutions for Long Term Fantasy Sports Success.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Who's Killing You?
I didn't have a specific strategy I wanted to discuss this week so I wanted to see who is reading my blog and put out an interactive topic. Feel free to respond directly to the blog in the comments section, Facebook or Twitter.
Week 7 begins tonight with a less than appetizing Fantasy matchup as Seattle travels to San Francisco for an NFC West slugfest. If you're expecting fireworks tonight, I would temper those expectations right away, as this (on paper) looks like it's going to be a defensive struggle. You're probably starting both defenses if you own them, David Akers (4 FGs made in each of his last 3 meetings with Seattle), Vernon Davis and Marshawn Lynch or Frank Gore (if you don't have better options). You can't reasonably expect to start either QB or any of the WRs with much confidence. That leads to me to this question: through 6 weeks of the fantasy season, who in the NFL is absolutely killing you? It doesn't have to be someone you actually own...it could be a teammate of one of your players who is stealing opportunities or someone who is factoring into an offense more than they should. I'll get the ball rolling and name 3 players who are absolutely killing me.
1) Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle
I am a Marshawn Lynch owner and on a week to week basis, I watch Seattle's games unfold on the various Gametrackers that I use and I continue to wonder how and why Pete Carroll lets this guy be the focal point of his offense. When I traded for Lynch prior to Week 2, I liked the situation that I was getting myself into: rookie QB, strong offensive line & defense, great homefield advantage, and a ball carrier that doesn't fumble and runs really hard. I fully expected Lynch, no matter the game situation, to be a 20 carry guy on a week to week basis. For some reason, I have to sit back and watch this rookie QB scramble for 8-9 yards a pop, throw 3 straight incompletions and then punt, or throw to Robert Turbin. The moderate success that Wilson has had so far is hurting Lynch, as the Seattle playbook continues to open wider to allow for more Wilson opportunities. Even in games where Seattle was in control or was in striking distance, I continue to see Lynch not get carries in spots where Seattle should be running the ball. I have gone on record in saying that Wilson, not Mark Sanchez, is the worst starting QB in the league and that if Matt Flynn was the starter, Lynch would be a Top 5 back instead of a Top 10 back. Lynch is probably being conserved so that he is impactful in the 2nd half of the season and with Seattle having a Week 11 bye, I completely agree that his workload should be scaled back. I just get tired of seeing Wilson succeed because A) I personally don't like him and B) No one else on Seattle is worth owning.
2) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
Prior to Week 6, I owned Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. I moved up in my draft to grab Graham and I traded for Sproles after Week 5, despite the bye week. Before I even got to use Sproles, I had a great offer on my plate to send Sproles, Graham & Demaryius Thomas to another owner for AJ Green, Reggie Bush & Antonio Gates. I couldn't pass up on adding Green to my roster, as I had also packaged a great group of players to acquire Calvin Johnson just a week earlier and Reggie Bush was an upgrade to my RB group, who have been suspect all season. So I pulled the trigger. When I owned Graham, I found myself watching the Saints intently, as they continue to get themselves into shootout after shootout while Graham underpeformed every week. He scored double digit fantasy points in each of the first two weeks and saw his production slide under 10 points in each of the next 3 weeks, including a brutal 0.4 point performance in Week 5, mostly attributed to an an ankle injury that now threatens to sideline him even longer. For whatever reason, Brees just wasn't looking his way. In Week 3, Graham managed a TD and 16 yards receiving while Jed Collins vultured a TD from all other Saints. In Weeks 4 & 5, Marcus Colston decided he was going to show up and play elite, limiting Graham's opportunities. I decided that Brees and the high powered Saints would plague me no longer, and I shed off all of my stock in the Saints offense prior to last week. The trend remains the same down on the bayou...Brees doesn't lock onto one target for long stretches of time and starting Saints outside of Brees continues to be a crapshoot. If you own Brees, keep starting him with confidence every week, as he's going to throw at least 2 TDs and pile up yardage in garbage time. His offensive weapons of choice, however, change on a week to week basis.
3) Norv Turner, Head Coach, San Diego
Yeah, that's right, a coach in his entirety is killing me. I have owned Ryan Mathews for 2 weeks, including his breakout performance against the Saints and last Monday Night's collapse against Denver. In both of those games, the same situation came into play: the Chargers were trailing with less than 5 minutes to go in the game and Ronnie FRIGGIN Brown was on the field. Is Ronnie Brown really that much better of an option in the passing/pass blocking game then Mathews? No. Is he a more talented player with the ball in his hands? No. I thought I was being ridiculous about this until I heard the exact same argument being made on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports radio on Tuesday morning. The hosts were criticizing Turner for having Brown on the field during the 2 minute offense, questioning whether or not it made that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things which RB was on the field during this time of the game. When you're in need of a TD to take the lead or tie, my thinking is that you want your best offensive talent on the field at that time. Because most defenses play balloon coverage during the 2 minute drill to avoid deep plays and keep potential ball carriers in front of them, this is the best scenario to pick up that garbage yardage that most fantasy owners are craving at the end of games. If Mathews is the Chargers' best offensive weapon (and in my eyes, he is), why is he standing on the sidelines at these crucial moments in games? In addition to poor end game management (which is synonymous with Turner's entire coaching career), Mathews owners also had to deal with the whole Jackie Battle depth chart situation, While that didn't play out into anything more than a mirage, it was really annoying to think that going into the best possible matchup of the year for San Diego RBs against the Saints, Mathews owners were possibly going to lose out on bulk yardage and goal line opportunities thanks to the incredibly sucky Jackie Battle. Turner needs to be relieved of his duties in San Diego probably more than any other coach needs to be removed in the entire league. This team consistently underperforms and I think a team that lacks discipline to finish games is a direct reflection of its' leadership. Put Mathews on the field as an every down back, Norv.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Week 7 begins tonight with a less than appetizing Fantasy matchup as Seattle travels to San Francisco for an NFC West slugfest. If you're expecting fireworks tonight, I would temper those expectations right away, as this (on paper) looks like it's going to be a defensive struggle. You're probably starting both defenses if you own them, David Akers (4 FGs made in each of his last 3 meetings with Seattle), Vernon Davis and Marshawn Lynch or Frank Gore (if you don't have better options). You can't reasonably expect to start either QB or any of the WRs with much confidence. That leads to me to this question: through 6 weeks of the fantasy season, who in the NFL is absolutely killing you? It doesn't have to be someone you actually own...it could be a teammate of one of your players who is stealing opportunities or someone who is factoring into an offense more than they should. I'll get the ball rolling and name 3 players who are absolutely killing me.
1) Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle
I am a Marshawn Lynch owner and on a week to week basis, I watch Seattle's games unfold on the various Gametrackers that I use and I continue to wonder how and why Pete Carroll lets this guy be the focal point of his offense. When I traded for Lynch prior to Week 2, I liked the situation that I was getting myself into: rookie QB, strong offensive line & defense, great homefield advantage, and a ball carrier that doesn't fumble and runs really hard. I fully expected Lynch, no matter the game situation, to be a 20 carry guy on a week to week basis. For some reason, I have to sit back and watch this rookie QB scramble for 8-9 yards a pop, throw 3 straight incompletions and then punt, or throw to Robert Turbin. The moderate success that Wilson has had so far is hurting Lynch, as the Seattle playbook continues to open wider to allow for more Wilson opportunities. Even in games where Seattle was in control or was in striking distance, I continue to see Lynch not get carries in spots where Seattle should be running the ball. I have gone on record in saying that Wilson, not Mark Sanchez, is the worst starting QB in the league and that if Matt Flynn was the starter, Lynch would be a Top 5 back instead of a Top 10 back. Lynch is probably being conserved so that he is impactful in the 2nd half of the season and with Seattle having a Week 11 bye, I completely agree that his workload should be scaled back. I just get tired of seeing Wilson succeed because A) I personally don't like him and B) No one else on Seattle is worth owning.
2) Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
Prior to Week 6, I owned Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. I moved up in my draft to grab Graham and I traded for Sproles after Week 5, despite the bye week. Before I even got to use Sproles, I had a great offer on my plate to send Sproles, Graham & Demaryius Thomas to another owner for AJ Green, Reggie Bush & Antonio Gates. I couldn't pass up on adding Green to my roster, as I had also packaged a great group of players to acquire Calvin Johnson just a week earlier and Reggie Bush was an upgrade to my RB group, who have been suspect all season. So I pulled the trigger. When I owned Graham, I found myself watching the Saints intently, as they continue to get themselves into shootout after shootout while Graham underpeformed every week. He scored double digit fantasy points in each of the first two weeks and saw his production slide under 10 points in each of the next 3 weeks, including a brutal 0.4 point performance in Week 5, mostly attributed to an an ankle injury that now threatens to sideline him even longer. For whatever reason, Brees just wasn't looking his way. In Week 3, Graham managed a TD and 16 yards receiving while Jed Collins vultured a TD from all other Saints. In Weeks 4 & 5, Marcus Colston decided he was going to show up and play elite, limiting Graham's opportunities. I decided that Brees and the high powered Saints would plague me no longer, and I shed off all of my stock in the Saints offense prior to last week. The trend remains the same down on the bayou...Brees doesn't lock onto one target for long stretches of time and starting Saints outside of Brees continues to be a crapshoot. If you own Brees, keep starting him with confidence every week, as he's going to throw at least 2 TDs and pile up yardage in garbage time. His offensive weapons of choice, however, change on a week to week basis.
3) Norv Turner, Head Coach, San Diego
Yeah, that's right, a coach in his entirety is killing me. I have owned Ryan Mathews for 2 weeks, including his breakout performance against the Saints and last Monday Night's collapse against Denver. In both of those games, the same situation came into play: the Chargers were trailing with less than 5 minutes to go in the game and Ronnie FRIGGIN Brown was on the field. Is Ronnie Brown really that much better of an option in the passing/pass blocking game then Mathews? No. Is he a more talented player with the ball in his hands? No. I thought I was being ridiculous about this until I heard the exact same argument being made on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports radio on Tuesday morning. The hosts were criticizing Turner for having Brown on the field during the 2 minute offense, questioning whether or not it made that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things which RB was on the field during this time of the game. When you're in need of a TD to take the lead or tie, my thinking is that you want your best offensive talent on the field at that time. Because most defenses play balloon coverage during the 2 minute drill to avoid deep plays and keep potential ball carriers in front of them, this is the best scenario to pick up that garbage yardage that most fantasy owners are craving at the end of games. If Mathews is the Chargers' best offensive weapon (and in my eyes, he is), why is he standing on the sidelines at these crucial moments in games? In addition to poor end game management (which is synonymous with Turner's entire coaching career), Mathews owners also had to deal with the whole Jackie Battle depth chart situation, While that didn't play out into anything more than a mirage, it was really annoying to think that going into the best possible matchup of the year for San Diego RBs against the Saints, Mathews owners were possibly going to lose out on bulk yardage and goal line opportunities thanks to the incredibly sucky Jackie Battle. Turner needs to be relieved of his duties in San Diego probably more than any other coach needs to be removed in the entire league. This team consistently underperforms and I think a team that lacks discipline to finish games is a direct reflection of its' leadership. Put Mathews on the field as an every down back, Norv.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Injuries & Winning
This week has been absolutely brutal when it comes to injuries in the middle tier. Fantasy owners have been extremely fortunate (thus far) to not have to deal with injuries to the upper echelon tiers of fantasy players, which are complete season changers. This season has been defined by finding value in the middle tier, especially at the RB position. At this point of the season, the inuries are starting to pile up and players that were filling out your roster have gone down with various injuries and have left big holes in your starting rosters. As we are right in the middle of the bye weeks, how are you able to manage injuries and continue to be successful with a depleted player pool? I had a friend send me his beat up roster and I will use it as an example as to how to manage through these difficult times.
Here's his roster (12 team, non-ppr, standard scoring, starting 2 WR, 2 RB & 1 Flex):
QB Matthew Stafford
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne
RB Willis McGahee
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Doug Martin
K Justin Tucker
DEF St. Louis
BN Brandon Myers
BN Donald Brown
BN Kendall Wright
BN Andre Roberts
BN Vick Ballard
BN NY Giants
For a 12 team league, this is a roster that most of us would be used to seeing. There are strengths, but for the most part, the roster as a whole is balanced and the owner is counting of contributions from the middle tier of players. This owner has also suffered through these injuries/suspensions: Danny Amendola, Jerome Simpson, Ramses Barden, Nate Kaeding. Earlier in the season, this owner was dealing with the question plaguing a lot of fantasy owners and he came to me for a suggestion: I drafted Chris Johnson, now what do I do? I advised him early on to trade Johnson before it was too late and the best deal he found was Danny Amendola & Donald Brown for CJ. I told him that was worth jumping on and he swung the deal. First and foremost, he was right to deal Johnson. Even if Johnson shows some signs of life this season, he was smart to take the best available deal at the time and rid himself of the fantasy nuisance that CJ has turned into. Now, both players he received back are hurt and he's stuck scouring the waiver wire for help.
Breakdown:
As currently constructed, his roster is strong enough to remain competitive through the bye weeks and beyond. He still has good talent at RB with Bradshaw, McGahee & Martin. Upcoming matchups may not be the greatest, but at least he has players that have a workload carved out on their individual teams and see the field on a regular basis. The format of his league allows him to only have to make 1-2 tough decisions per week. Stafford has passed his bye week and he remains solid at the QB position. Hakeem Nicks, when Healthy and Active, is a top 5 performer at the WR position on a week to week basis. My advice for the current lineup is to stay the course. If Nicks is able to return to the lineup this week, he has to roll with him. He has a great contingency plan this week for Nicks being INACTIVE in Andre Roberts, as both players have a 4:00 EST game, and he will know prior to those games starting whether or not he'll be rolling with Nicks or Roberts. He has a win/win scenario either way as Nicks is a Must Start when in the lineup, and if Nicks can't go, he gets Roberts against the Bills, who are allowing the 4th most points against WRs this season. He did the right thing by adding Vick Ballard to play in place of Donald Brown, as Ballard has received all the back-up reps (in-game) for Indy and has been named the starter while Brown is out. Ballard faces a user-friendly RB schedule during Brown's absence, drawing the Jets, Browns & Titans, all of which are in the Top 11 in Fantasy Points allowed to RBs. McGahee is on bye in Week 7 and Bradshaw takes his bye during Week 11, so he may only have to use Ballard once to fill in the gap. Brandon Myers fills in for Jimmy Graham during Week 6, and he's got a winnable matchup against the Falcons, who should be comfortably ahead in this game, meaning Oakland should have plenty of targets to go around for their WRs & TEs. St. Louis has become a playable fantasy defense, compiling 11 sacks over the last 2 weeks and owning the Giants as a backup defense is necessary, as St. Louis has tough matchups on the horizon. Justin Tucker is a reliable fantasy kicker, averaging just under 11 points per week and nailing 6 FGs over 40 yards or more.
Analysis for everyone else:
Injuries happen and as long as these injuries aren't keeping your game changing players out of action, there are always suitable replacements available on the Waiver Wire. Cedric Benson owners should have snagged Alex Green as a suitable stash option, Brown owners should have snagged Vick Ballard as a playable option for the next 3 weeks, and Ryan Williams owners hopefully had more than 3 RBs on their roster, because the Cardinal backfield situation will not have clarity until we've seen them in action this weekend. I advised owners of Danny Amendola to drop him without worry (and I was quoted in the Internationl Business Times for this opinion: (http://www.ibtimes.com/danny-amendola-injury-should-you-drop-him-your-fantasy-football-team-842101)). There is no real reason to jump on any of the other WRs on the St. Louis roster. If Amendola was anything higher than your WR3, your roster was already in trouble.
The key to navigating through bye weeks and injuries is to remain flexible at the bottom of your roster. No one has a roster where every player is undroppable, and you need to have guys that you can drop for injury replacements or bye week fill ins. The only case I have ever seen where an owner had a roster filled with players that were undroppable was in my most important league during the 2011 season. The owner who eventually won our league championship had 2 separate weeks where he took bye week zeroes at more than one position because if he had made a roster move, he would have dropped star-quality name players that would have been picked up immediately. I questioned his decision in each of the two weeks (I happened to be his opponent in both of these weeks), but his eventual championship (including knocking me off in the playoffs) made me back off of my questioning. In standard 10 and 12 man leagues, you likely have at least 1 roster spot that is fluid and can be used for stashing an injured player who will return or a speculative play for later in the season. Don't hesitate to be an active player on the Waiver Wire. Late season gems often lead fantasy teams from pretenders to contenders. Vick Ballard may completely dominate during the next 3 weeks and earn himself a greater share of the workload when Donald Brown returns. Alex Green (who I feel is the perfect fit at RB for what the Packers try to accomplish on offense) could prove to be a great add long term. Whomever wins the Cardinal job outright could be a valuable flex starter in the near future.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Here's his roster (12 team, non-ppr, standard scoring, starting 2 WR, 2 RB & 1 Flex):
QB Matthew Stafford
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne
RB Willis McGahee
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Doug Martin
K Justin Tucker
DEF St. Louis
BN Brandon Myers
BN Donald Brown
BN Kendall Wright
BN Andre Roberts
BN Vick Ballard
BN NY Giants
For a 12 team league, this is a roster that most of us would be used to seeing. There are strengths, but for the most part, the roster as a whole is balanced and the owner is counting of contributions from the middle tier of players. This owner has also suffered through these injuries/suspensions: Danny Amendola, Jerome Simpson, Ramses Barden, Nate Kaeding. Earlier in the season, this owner was dealing with the question plaguing a lot of fantasy owners and he came to me for a suggestion: I drafted Chris Johnson, now what do I do? I advised him early on to trade Johnson before it was too late and the best deal he found was Danny Amendola & Donald Brown for CJ. I told him that was worth jumping on and he swung the deal. First and foremost, he was right to deal Johnson. Even if Johnson shows some signs of life this season, he was smart to take the best available deal at the time and rid himself of the fantasy nuisance that CJ has turned into. Now, both players he received back are hurt and he's stuck scouring the waiver wire for help.
Breakdown:
As currently constructed, his roster is strong enough to remain competitive through the bye weeks and beyond. He still has good talent at RB with Bradshaw, McGahee & Martin. Upcoming matchups may not be the greatest, but at least he has players that have a workload carved out on their individual teams and see the field on a regular basis. The format of his league allows him to only have to make 1-2 tough decisions per week. Stafford has passed his bye week and he remains solid at the QB position. Hakeem Nicks, when Healthy and Active, is a top 5 performer at the WR position on a week to week basis. My advice for the current lineup is to stay the course. If Nicks is able to return to the lineup this week, he has to roll with him. He has a great contingency plan this week for Nicks being INACTIVE in Andre Roberts, as both players have a 4:00 EST game, and he will know prior to those games starting whether or not he'll be rolling with Nicks or Roberts. He has a win/win scenario either way as Nicks is a Must Start when in the lineup, and if Nicks can't go, he gets Roberts against the Bills, who are allowing the 4th most points against WRs this season. He did the right thing by adding Vick Ballard to play in place of Donald Brown, as Ballard has received all the back-up reps (in-game) for Indy and has been named the starter while Brown is out. Ballard faces a user-friendly RB schedule during Brown's absence, drawing the Jets, Browns & Titans, all of which are in the Top 11 in Fantasy Points allowed to RBs. McGahee is on bye in Week 7 and Bradshaw takes his bye during Week 11, so he may only have to use Ballard once to fill in the gap. Brandon Myers fills in for Jimmy Graham during Week 6, and he's got a winnable matchup against the Falcons, who should be comfortably ahead in this game, meaning Oakland should have plenty of targets to go around for their WRs & TEs. St. Louis has become a playable fantasy defense, compiling 11 sacks over the last 2 weeks and owning the Giants as a backup defense is necessary, as St. Louis has tough matchups on the horizon. Justin Tucker is a reliable fantasy kicker, averaging just under 11 points per week and nailing 6 FGs over 40 yards or more.
Analysis for everyone else:
Injuries happen and as long as these injuries aren't keeping your game changing players out of action, there are always suitable replacements available on the Waiver Wire. Cedric Benson owners should have snagged Alex Green as a suitable stash option, Brown owners should have snagged Vick Ballard as a playable option for the next 3 weeks, and Ryan Williams owners hopefully had more than 3 RBs on their roster, because the Cardinal backfield situation will not have clarity until we've seen them in action this weekend. I advised owners of Danny Amendola to drop him without worry (and I was quoted in the Internationl Business Times for this opinion: (http://www.ibtimes.com/danny-amendola-injury-should-you-drop-him-your-fantasy-football-team-842101)). There is no real reason to jump on any of the other WRs on the St. Louis roster. If Amendola was anything higher than your WR3, your roster was already in trouble.
The key to navigating through bye weeks and injuries is to remain flexible at the bottom of your roster. No one has a roster where every player is undroppable, and you need to have guys that you can drop for injury replacements or bye week fill ins. The only case I have ever seen where an owner had a roster filled with players that were undroppable was in my most important league during the 2011 season. The owner who eventually won our league championship had 2 separate weeks where he took bye week zeroes at more than one position because if he had made a roster move, he would have dropped star-quality name players that would have been picked up immediately. I questioned his decision in each of the two weeks (I happened to be his opponent in both of these weeks), but his eventual championship (including knocking me off in the playoffs) made me back off of my questioning. In standard 10 and 12 man leagues, you likely have at least 1 roster spot that is fluid and can be used for stashing an injured player who will return or a speculative play for later in the season. Don't hesitate to be an active player on the Waiver Wire. Late season gems often lead fantasy teams from pretenders to contenders. Vick Ballard may completely dominate during the next 3 weeks and earn himself a greater share of the workload when Donald Brown returns. Alex Green (who I feel is the perfect fit at RB for what the Packers try to accomplish on offense) could prove to be a great add long term. Whomever wins the Cardinal job outright could be a valuable flex starter in the near future.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Time to Trade
As we enter Week 5, you already have a great idea of what direction your team is heading in. If you're 4-0 or 3-1, you've made the correct starts, taken advantage of your matchups, and found the gems on the waiver wire. Your roster probably looks pretty good and you're confident about where you stand in your league. If you are on the opposite end of the spectrum bringing up the rear at 0-4 or 1-3, what can you do to turn things around NOW? Let's face it, you have to make a change now or risk falling even further out of contention. This is the optimal point of the season to start looking into trades. I personally never stop looking for a deal....I'm always looking to upgrade my individual rosters on a week to week basis with an eye towards the long term. In my most important league, I have already swung 4 deals and am currently rostering only 4 of the 15 players I started with after draft day. Yes, I hit the wire hard every week and since I play matchups at the kicker and defense spots, my roster is very fluid, but in a competitive league, there is no time to sit back and be complacent. I currently sit at 3-1 in that league (I should be 4-0 but I was a victim of the last 3 minutes of the Patriots-Bills game (Gostkowski & Lloyd) along with substantial under performances at the RB position (McFadden and Murray)). I lost in Week 4 by 1.3 points. 13 stinking yards. So I went out this week and made one deal, swapping Darren McFadden for Ryan Mathews. I traded with the guy currently sitting in 4th place who also happens to have the most overall points in the league (he is 2 roster moves away from being 4-0). He was willing to take on McFadden because of his ceiling and the upside he presents to a team that isn't having trouble scoring points. I took on Mathews for his upside and because I was sick of watching Darren McFadden underperform in my lineup week in and week out. We both felt a "change of scenery" for both RBs would help our teams in the long run. We'll see how it works out. Here is my "guide" for trading for both ends of the standings:
1) Understand where you stand in your league.
If you're currently sitting at 4-0, it can be for a number of reasons. You either have a team that is far better than every other team (like my Yahoo Public 10 Man League) or you have a grouping of players that is carrying your squad (like the guy currently at 4-0 in my most important league who has Brees, Rice and Gronkowski). If you're not 1 of these 2, you have probably been able to take advantage of a low scoring opponent a couple of times or you have squeaked by with a couple Monday Night comebacks. At 4-0 or 3-1, you have the power to eliminate the depth you have accumulated and use it to get an elite upgrade at one spot. Your goal when looking to trade should be to target a team that is under performing and has an elite upgrade at either the WR or RB position for you. If you can determine that this team is underperforming due to a lack of depth or overall roster weakness, this is the person you want to try and trade 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 with. As an example, I made a trade last week with a guy who was 0-3 who wanted to get deeper at the RB position, as he was only rostering 3 RBs (one of them being Peyton Hillis). His best available player was DeMarco Murray, so I packaged Doug Martin and Donald Brown, who both have high upsides and backfields primarily to themselves along with Antonio Brown, a Top 25 WR (currently sitting at #41 because he has already had his bye week) to get DeMarco Murray and Andre Johnson. This deal strengthened the core of my roster and added depth to my opponent's roster, which he sorely needed. In a position of power at the top of the standings, your motivation to trade is to eliminate depth (also eliminating tedious game day roster decisions) and strengthen your starting lineup. If you're sitting at 1-3 or 0-4, your goal has to be adding more points on a weekly basis with an eye on winning now. You want to trade in the opposite style. You want to add players who can start on your roster and help you win now. You will have to manage your team in Week to Week mode, however. If you're sitting at the bottom of your league with a roster that looked stacked when you drafted it (you likely have Chris Johnson), your goal is to add depth. Trading your elite player is a tough decision to make, but if you're sitting at the bottom and your best player is Marshawn Lynch, you can easily trade him for an RB AND a WR. You want to add as many talented players as you can but you have to realize that your record has killed any power you might have had to make a big time swap. This type of deal where you're getting 2 for 1 adds strength to your starting lineup and allows you to eliminate the crap you're holding on to at the bottom of your roster is optimal because your goal is to strengthen your roster as a whole.
2) Understand the Value of your current roster.
One thing that never diminishes in fantasy football is name value. An elite player can get off to a slow start from a fantasy perspective, but they still hold name value, equating to a higher ceiling. A player like Darren McFadden, who I have traded in 1 league and advised a friend of mine to trade in a deal that just went through, holds a ton of name-brand value. We all know that when things eventually start going right for Oakland, it will be because of McFadden. He can easily pop off for 100 yards and a score at any time and his schedule moving forward gives a prospective owner a big boost of optimism that a turn around can happen. You really cannot wait much longer to trade a commodity like this, however, because 1 or 2 bad performances coming out of his Week 5 bye will create a real quagmire for you, as he will become untradeable AND undroppable. McFadden's "moveability" is at its' highest point right now. A player that has reached untradeable AND undroppable status is Chris Johnson. You cannot receive similar value for CJ (value meaning where you likely drafted him), but you cannot just drop him, as he will create the greatest battle in the history of your waiver wire. If you're trying to trade Johnson, you are likely getting back a lower name-value RB and the deal is likely a multi-player package.
3) Discuss with your potential trade partner what they are actually trying to accomplish.
Earlier this season, an aggressive owner in my league was looking to upgrade his WR group. He had an abundance of RBs and was willing to make a move. I initially approached him about Stevan Ridley, as he was coming off an impressive Week 1 and I targeted him as a player I'd like to obtain. After discussing back and forth with this owner, I found out that he saw Ridley as a potential Top 10 RB, a price tag I did not agree with, and thus, I moved on to other players on his roster, as he remained the optimal trading partner for me due to his abundance of RBs and my abundance of WRs. After determining Ridley's price tag was too high for me, I moved on to Marshawn Lynch, who had an OK Week 1 against Arizona and was sitting on this owner's bench. We determined that Lynch was in the price range I was looking to deal within, and the WR he liked on my roster was Reggie Wayne. Because trading 1 for 1 was not fair for both squads, I threw in Reggie Bush with Wayne to get Lynch and Antonio Brown. Lynch was an upgrade over Bush for me and Wayne was an upgrade over Brown for him, so the deal was made. By finding out how the other owner valued his RBs, I was able to make a significant roster upgrade and in the short term, I got rid of a player with high upside when healthy (Bush) and obtained a secondary player (Brown) who I was able to deal a week later. Your goal in trading, regardless of where you are in the standings, is to eliminate weekly roster decisions and put together the strongest possible postseason roster. It is harder to trade in public leagues where you don't know everyone playing, but if you're reading this, you're likely playing in a league with people you know where strategy is more advanced and you can make moves based on the tendencies of other owners (favorite teams/players, etc.).
4) Don't trade players you just picked up off the waiver wire unless your trade partner requests it.
This week's hot pick up is more than likely either Ryan Hartline, Andre Roberts, or Jackie Battle. If you were lucky enough to grab them off the wire, the only value they hold is to your team. If you're picking up players like this and turning around and offering them up to every other owner in the league blindly, you're likely going to see a lot more rejected proposals. Here's the overall point: if I had wanted that player off the wire, I would have gone and gotten him myself. Other owners will see it this way too. If you're grabbing Hartline this week and turning around trying to get Victor Cruz or Roddy White (in a package of course), you're going to fail. Waiver Wire pickups have been season savers and have helped many owners win fantasy championships (Jamaal Charles in 2009, Peyton Hills in 2010), but unless someone else approaches you to get one of these pick ups, you're only going to get value for these players on your roster. If you went through the waiver process to get one of these guys and someone apparoaches you to get them and are willing to trade a name brand commodity to get them, swing that deal immediately. There is a reason these players were on the wire in the first place. But unless that deal comes to you, you're rostering that player.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
1) Understand where you stand in your league.
If you're currently sitting at 4-0, it can be for a number of reasons. You either have a team that is far better than every other team (like my Yahoo Public 10 Man League) or you have a grouping of players that is carrying your squad (like the guy currently at 4-0 in my most important league who has Brees, Rice and Gronkowski). If you're not 1 of these 2, you have probably been able to take advantage of a low scoring opponent a couple of times or you have squeaked by with a couple Monday Night comebacks. At 4-0 or 3-1, you have the power to eliminate the depth you have accumulated and use it to get an elite upgrade at one spot. Your goal when looking to trade should be to target a team that is under performing and has an elite upgrade at either the WR or RB position for you. If you can determine that this team is underperforming due to a lack of depth or overall roster weakness, this is the person you want to try and trade 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 with. As an example, I made a trade last week with a guy who was 0-3 who wanted to get deeper at the RB position, as he was only rostering 3 RBs (one of them being Peyton Hillis). His best available player was DeMarco Murray, so I packaged Doug Martin and Donald Brown, who both have high upsides and backfields primarily to themselves along with Antonio Brown, a Top 25 WR (currently sitting at #41 because he has already had his bye week) to get DeMarco Murray and Andre Johnson. This deal strengthened the core of my roster and added depth to my opponent's roster, which he sorely needed. In a position of power at the top of the standings, your motivation to trade is to eliminate depth (also eliminating tedious game day roster decisions) and strengthen your starting lineup. If you're sitting at 1-3 or 0-4, your goal has to be adding more points on a weekly basis with an eye on winning now. You want to trade in the opposite style. You want to add players who can start on your roster and help you win now. You will have to manage your team in Week to Week mode, however. If you're sitting at the bottom of your league with a roster that looked stacked when you drafted it (you likely have Chris Johnson), your goal is to add depth. Trading your elite player is a tough decision to make, but if you're sitting at the bottom and your best player is Marshawn Lynch, you can easily trade him for an RB AND a WR. You want to add as many talented players as you can but you have to realize that your record has killed any power you might have had to make a big time swap. This type of deal where you're getting 2 for 1 adds strength to your starting lineup and allows you to eliminate the crap you're holding on to at the bottom of your roster is optimal because your goal is to strengthen your roster as a whole.
2) Understand the Value of your current roster.
One thing that never diminishes in fantasy football is name value. An elite player can get off to a slow start from a fantasy perspective, but they still hold name value, equating to a higher ceiling. A player like Darren McFadden, who I have traded in 1 league and advised a friend of mine to trade in a deal that just went through, holds a ton of name-brand value. We all know that when things eventually start going right for Oakland, it will be because of McFadden. He can easily pop off for 100 yards and a score at any time and his schedule moving forward gives a prospective owner a big boost of optimism that a turn around can happen. You really cannot wait much longer to trade a commodity like this, however, because 1 or 2 bad performances coming out of his Week 5 bye will create a real quagmire for you, as he will become untradeable AND undroppable. McFadden's "moveability" is at its' highest point right now. A player that has reached untradeable AND undroppable status is Chris Johnson. You cannot receive similar value for CJ (value meaning where you likely drafted him), but you cannot just drop him, as he will create the greatest battle in the history of your waiver wire. If you're trying to trade Johnson, you are likely getting back a lower name-value RB and the deal is likely a multi-player package.
3) Discuss with your potential trade partner what they are actually trying to accomplish.
Earlier this season, an aggressive owner in my league was looking to upgrade his WR group. He had an abundance of RBs and was willing to make a move. I initially approached him about Stevan Ridley, as he was coming off an impressive Week 1 and I targeted him as a player I'd like to obtain. After discussing back and forth with this owner, I found out that he saw Ridley as a potential Top 10 RB, a price tag I did not agree with, and thus, I moved on to other players on his roster, as he remained the optimal trading partner for me due to his abundance of RBs and my abundance of WRs. After determining Ridley's price tag was too high for me, I moved on to Marshawn Lynch, who had an OK Week 1 against Arizona and was sitting on this owner's bench. We determined that Lynch was in the price range I was looking to deal within, and the WR he liked on my roster was Reggie Wayne. Because trading 1 for 1 was not fair for both squads, I threw in Reggie Bush with Wayne to get Lynch and Antonio Brown. Lynch was an upgrade over Bush for me and Wayne was an upgrade over Brown for him, so the deal was made. By finding out how the other owner valued his RBs, I was able to make a significant roster upgrade and in the short term, I got rid of a player with high upside when healthy (Bush) and obtained a secondary player (Brown) who I was able to deal a week later. Your goal in trading, regardless of where you are in the standings, is to eliminate weekly roster decisions and put together the strongest possible postseason roster. It is harder to trade in public leagues where you don't know everyone playing, but if you're reading this, you're likely playing in a league with people you know where strategy is more advanced and you can make moves based on the tendencies of other owners (favorite teams/players, etc.).
4) Don't trade players you just picked up off the waiver wire unless your trade partner requests it.
This week's hot pick up is more than likely either Ryan Hartline, Andre Roberts, or Jackie Battle. If you were lucky enough to grab them off the wire, the only value they hold is to your team. If you're picking up players like this and turning around and offering them up to every other owner in the league blindly, you're likely going to see a lot more rejected proposals. Here's the overall point: if I had wanted that player off the wire, I would have gone and gotten him myself. Other owners will see it this way too. If you're grabbing Hartline this week and turning around trying to get Victor Cruz or Roddy White (in a package of course), you're going to fail. Waiver Wire pickups have been season savers and have helped many owners win fantasy championships (Jamaal Charles in 2009, Peyton Hills in 2010), but unless someone else approaches you to get one of these pick ups, you're only going to get value for these players on your roster. If you went through the waiver process to get one of these guys and someone apparoaches you to get them and are willing to trade a name brand commodity to get them, swing that deal immediately. There is a reason these players were on the wire in the first place. But unless that deal comes to you, you're rostering that player.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
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