Time to Trade

As we enter Week 5, you already have a great idea of what direction your team is heading in.  If you're 4-0 or 3-1, you've made the correct starts, taken advantage of your matchups, and found the gems on the waiver wire.  Your roster probably looks pretty good and you're confident about where you stand in your league.  If you are on the opposite end of the spectrum bringing up the rear at 0-4 or 1-3, what can you do to turn things around NOW?  Let's face it, you have to make a change now or risk falling even further out of contention.  This is the optimal point of the season to start looking into trades.  I personally never stop looking for a deal....I'm always looking to upgrade my individual rosters on a week to week basis with an eye towards the long term.  In my most important league, I have already swung 4 deals and am currently rostering only 4 of the 15 players I started with after draft day.  Yes, I hit the wire hard every week and since I play matchups at the kicker and defense spots, my roster is very fluid, but in a competitive league, there is no time to sit back and be complacent.  I currently sit at 3-1 in that league (I should be 4-0 but I was a victim of the last 3 minutes of the Patriots-Bills game (Gostkowski & Lloyd) along with substantial under performances at the RB position (McFadden and Murray)).  I lost in Week 4 by 1.3 points.  13 stinking yards.  So I went out this week and made one deal, swapping Darren McFadden for Ryan Mathews.  I traded with the guy currently sitting in 4th place who also happens to have the most overall points in the league (he is 2 roster moves away from being 4-0).  He was willing to take on McFadden because of his ceiling and the upside he presents to a team that isn't having trouble scoring points.  I took on Mathews for his upside and because I was sick of watching Darren McFadden underperform in my lineup week in and week out.  We both felt a "change of scenery" for both RBs would help our teams in the long run.  We'll see how it works out.  Here is my "guide" for trading for both ends of the standings:

1) Understand where you stand in your league.

If you're currently sitting at 4-0, it can be for a number of reasons.  You either have a team that is far better than every other team (like my Yahoo Public 10 Man League) or you have a grouping of players that is carrying your squad (like the guy currently at 4-0 in my most important league who has Brees, Rice and Gronkowski).  If you're not 1 of these 2, you have probably been able to take advantage of a low scoring opponent a couple of times or you have squeaked by with a couple Monday Night comebacks.  At 4-0 or 3-1, you have the power to eliminate the depth you have accumulated and use it to get an elite upgrade at one spot.  Your goal when looking to trade should be to target a team that is under performing and has an elite upgrade at either the WR or RB position for you.  If you can determine that this team is underperforming due to a lack of depth or overall roster weakness, this is the person you want to try and trade 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 with.  As an example, I made a trade last week with a guy who was 0-3 who wanted to get deeper at the RB position, as he was only rostering 3 RBs (one of them being Peyton Hillis).  His best available player was DeMarco Murray, so I packaged Doug Martin and Donald Brown, who both have high upsides and backfields primarily to themselves along with Antonio Brown, a Top 25 WR (currently sitting at #41 because he has already had his bye week) to get DeMarco Murray and Andre Johnson.  This deal strengthened the core of my roster and added depth to my opponent's roster, which he sorely needed.  In a position of power at the top of the standings, your motivation to trade is to eliminate depth (also eliminating tedious game day roster decisions) and strengthen your starting lineup.  If you're sitting at 1-3 or 0-4, your goal has to be adding more points on a weekly basis with an eye on winning now.  You want to trade in the opposite style.  You want to add players who can start on your roster and help you win now.  You will have to manage your team in Week to Week mode, however.  If you're sitting at the bottom of your league with a roster that looked stacked when you drafted it (you likely have Chris Johnson), your goal is to add depth.  Trading your elite player is a tough decision to make, but if you're sitting at the bottom and your best player is Marshawn Lynch, you can easily trade him for an RB AND a WR.  You want to add as many talented players as you can but you have to realize that your record has killed any power you might have had to make a big time swap.  This type of deal where you're getting 2 for 1 adds strength to your starting lineup and allows you to eliminate the crap you're holding on to at the bottom of your roster is optimal because your goal is to strengthen your roster as a whole.

2) Understand the Value of your current roster.

One thing that never diminishes in fantasy football is name value.  An elite player can get off to a slow start from a fantasy perspective, but they still hold name value, equating to a higher ceiling.  A player like Darren McFadden, who I have traded in 1 league and advised a friend of mine to trade in a deal that just went through, holds a ton of name-brand value.  We all know that when things eventually start going right for Oakland, it will be because of McFadden.  He can easily pop off for 100 yards and a score at any time and his schedule moving forward gives a prospective owner a big boost of optimism that a turn around can happen.  You really cannot wait much longer to trade a commodity like this, however, because 1 or 2 bad performances coming out of his Week 5 bye will create a real quagmire for you, as he will become untradeable AND undroppable.  McFadden's "moveability" is at its' highest point right now.  A player that has reached untradeable AND undroppable status is Chris Johnson.  You cannot receive similar value for CJ (value meaning where you likely drafted him), but you cannot just drop him, as he will create the greatest battle in the history of your waiver wire.  If you're trying to trade Johnson, you are likely getting back a lower name-value RB and the deal is likely a multi-player package. 

3) Discuss with your potential trade partner what they are actually trying to accomplish.

Earlier this season, an aggressive owner in my league was looking to upgrade his WR group.  He had an abundance of RBs and was willing to make a move.  I initially approached him about Stevan Ridley, as he was coming off an impressive Week 1 and I targeted him as a player I'd like to obtain.  After discussing back and forth with this owner, I found out that he saw Ridley as a potential Top 10 RB, a price tag I did not agree with, and thus, I moved on to other players on his roster, as he remained the optimal trading partner for me due to his abundance of RBs and my abundance of WRs.  After determining Ridley's price tag was too high for me, I moved on to Marshawn Lynch, who had an OK Week 1 against Arizona and was sitting on this owner's bench.  We determined that Lynch was in the price range I was looking to deal within, and the WR he liked on my roster was Reggie Wayne.  Because trading 1 for 1 was not fair for both squads, I threw in Reggie Bush with Wayne to get Lynch and Antonio Brown.  Lynch was an upgrade over Bush for me and Wayne was an upgrade over Brown for him, so the deal was made.  By finding out how the other owner valued his RBs, I was able to make a significant roster upgrade and in the short term, I got rid of a player with high upside when healthy (Bush) and obtained a secondary player (Brown) who I was able to deal a week later.  Your goal in trading, regardless of where you are in the standings, is to eliminate weekly roster decisions and put together the strongest possible postseason roster.  It is harder to trade in public leagues where you don't know everyone playing, but if you're reading this, you're likely playing in a league with people you know where strategy is more advanced and you can make moves based on the tendencies of other owners (favorite teams/players, etc.).

4) Don't trade players you just picked up off the waiver wire unless your trade partner requests it.

This week's hot pick up is more than likely either Ryan Hartline, Andre Roberts, or Jackie Battle.  If you were lucky enough to grab them off the wire, the only value they hold is to your team.  If you're picking up players like this and turning around and offering them up to every other owner in the league blindly, you're likely going to see a lot more rejected proposals.  Here's the overall point: if I had wanted that player off the wire, I would have gone and gotten him myself.  Other owners will see it this way too.  If you're grabbing Hartline this week and turning around trying to get Victor Cruz or Roddy White (in a package of course), you're going to fail.  Waiver Wire pickups have been season savers and have helped many owners win fantasy championships (Jamaal Charles in 2009, Peyton Hills in 2010), but unless someone else approaches you to get one of these pick ups, you're only going to get value for these players on your roster.  If you went through the waiver process to get one of these guys and someone apparoaches you to get them and are willing to trade a name brand commodity to get them, swing that deal immediately.  There is a reason these players were on the wire in the first place.  But unless that deal comes to you, you're rostering that player.

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6