When you assemble your lineup on a weekly basis, you are trying to maximize points at every position. There are certain positions in your weekly lineup where there is absolutely no way to correctly prognosticate an expected point total, and the most troublesome spot in the weekly lineup is the kicker spot. You can do all the research in the world and still end up with an inexplicable 5 points or less. If you pick up a kicker who plays for a team that scores 5 TDs in a game, you're only getting 5 lousy points. Their team succeeded greatly, and you got the raw end of the deal. If you play in a public league, there isn't much you can do about this. You just have to draft or pick up the best possible option and hope that the offense they are tied to stalls repeatedly on the right side of the 50. Many of us, however, play in customized private leagues, where scoring is determined by your league's commissioner and can be toggled to add points per reception, bonus points for 100 yard performances, etc. These leagues also tend to be our most important as far as bragging rights, competition and usually have a cash prize or trophy handed to the winner at the end of the season.
Last week (between Weeks 14 & 15), as I have done every season since starting my league of record, I ask the other owners in my league if there are any changes they would like to see made to improve the quality of our league. Thus far, in 5 seasons, we hadn't changed any of the formatting in our league. I posed this question to my fellow owners and put the issue to a vote: would you like to eliminate the kicker position and add another position player (WR/TE flex)? I told the owners that the majority would win and the first 5 owners who got back to me were in favor of making this change. Here's why I proposed the change: With only 8 owners and 15 total roster spots, I wanted to find a way to add depth to the league without adding other owners. We all agreed before the season that we would be extending our rosters to 16 spots for the 2013 season. I felt that if you're going to get a 5 or 6 point performance on your roster, wouldn't you prefer to have some percentage of a chance that the player could also score a TD? Also, kickers in our league cannot score negative points like the regular position players or defenses. So we made it official...next season our league expands to 16 roster spots from 15 and the Kicker position is eliminated with a WR/TE flex position to be added. Here are some ways to customize your league that I think commissioners should consider:
1) Eliminating Kickers
In standard format leagues where kickers are awarded 3 points for FGs of 39 yards or less, 4 points for FGs of 40-49 yards, 5 points for FGs of 50+ yards and 1 point for PATs, the top kicker is Stephen Gostkowski at 150 points. In 14 games, that works out to an average of 10.71 ppg. The separation in points from the Top Ranked Kicker to the 20th Ranked Kicker is 45 points, or 3.21 ppg over 14 games. To offer some comparison, there are no TEs who have scored over 136 fantasy points, which means every player in the group averages less than 10 ppg, but in the Top 20, 19 of the 20 players have scored 3 TDs or more with the exception being Jason Witten, who makes up for his lack of TDs by leading the position with 923 receiving yards. 8 WRs, 13 RBs, & 25 QBs have amassed 150 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. The point is this: in fantasy football, who the heck wants to cheer for FGs? We're out there cheering for TDs, yardage and big plays. Cheering for drives to stall should be limited to defenses. I also feel that the Kicker position is way too highly streamable. In 14 weeks of play, I used 13 different kickers in my league of record. There are owners that only use 1-2 kickers in a season, but I prefer to scrutinize the performance of each position and Kicker is the only spot you can change on a weekly basis and have the same percentage of success week to week. Eliminating the hours of research on a position we are prepared to accept 7-8 points from is hours that could be used finding better sleepers and using our roster space for players who can score more points with a chance at scoring TDs.
2) Toggle your Defensive Scoring
In most standard scoring leagues, defenses earn 10 points for a shutout, 7 points for allowing 1-6 points, 4 points for allowing 7-13 points, 1 point for allowing 14-20 points, 0 points for allowing 21-27 points, -1 point for allowing 28-34 points & -4 points for allowing 35 or more points. The best scoring defenses in the NFL (San Francisco & Seattle) allow 15.6 ppg (1 fantasy point) and the worst scoring defenses in the NFL (Buffalo & Oakland) allow 28.7 ppg (-1 fantasy points). I feel two specific things need to change with this scoring: teams need to be rewarded with more fantasy points for allowing less points and the ranges need to be changed by 1 point. For example, when a team gives up an offensive TD, their defensive score goes from 10 to 7 to 4 on the completion of the PAT. If a team goes out and wins 35-7 and the TD they gave up was a garbage time TD at the end of the game, why is the defense punished by losing 6 points? Sacks, Fumbles, INTs, Blocked Kicks and Defensive TDs (while scored fairly) are so difficult to accumulate at the professional level that holding your opponent to 20 or less points should make up some of that difference. I think the scoring ranges should be Shutout, 1-7, 8-14, 15-21, 22-28 & 29+. If there are ways to toggle your scoring ranges, think about doing it. It will change the way defenses are drafted and streamed.
3) Play in a League with some sort of Flex
By now, most custom leagues have a flex of some sort, whether it's RB/WR, WR/TE, or RB/WR/TE. It gives you the flexibility to play the extra player that might have been causing you some distress from the Sit/Start standpoint and also emphasizes the need for roster depth and stability. With a flex as part of your lineup, you have to build a full roster that is strong enough to navigate the bye weeks and ultra stressful playoff weeks rather than assembling just a weekly starting lineup. Also, a flex position cannot and should not be some throw away guy. I hear too many "Experts" say things like "I would use him, but only in a flex" as if the starting roster spot wasn't as important as the rest. The flex position allows you to draft the extra RB in the early rounds because you know you're going to get to play him on a weekly basis. It allows you to stash players that you might want to use as a 1-week matchup start that doesn't affect your core 3 WR, 2 RB groupings. If you have a flex that allows you to play a 2nd TE, owners who were savvy enough to own Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski last year before they individually blew up had the ability to play both without making that tricky roster decision. The point is this: if you're playing in a league with a standard offensive set-up (1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE) and you're drafting 16-18 roster spots, you're wasting a lot of space with stash players and you're forced to make overly difficult decisions every week.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
Decision Making Tool for the Fantasy Sports Fanatic looking for Non-Obvious Solutions for Long Term Fantasy Sports Success.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Breaking Up is Hard to Do
In my league of record, we play a keeper format. 6 of our 8 owners make the playoffs, and those owners are rewarded with keeping 1 player off their final roster acting as their first round pick in the following year's draft. Because this player acts as a first round pick, our owners are pressed with making the decision to keep their best possible player who represents maximum first round value. After missing the playoffs in 2009, I drafted 1st overall in 2010 and I selected Aaron Rodgers, as he was the #1 overall scorer in our format (6 pt passing TDs, non-PPR) and the 6 keepers in that draft included 4 of the best RBs from the 2009 season. Since that time, I have made the playoffs in every season and at the end of each of those seasons, I kept Aaron Rodgers. I built my teams around him and he didn't disappoint, as he remained the #1 overall point scorer in 2010 and 2011. As I head into the 2013 season after a disappointing 1st round playoff departure, I have already made the decision that Rodgers will not be my keeper going forward. The reason for this "divorce" is simple: I am 0-3 in the playoffs (since winning the inaugural league championship in 2008) with Rodgers at the helm and my losses are directly tied to his performance. In 2010, his 2.34 point, injury shortened performace against Detroit got me eliminated without much of a fight. In 2011, the Packers' lone loss of the regular season came in Kansas City, which also was my 1st playoff game, and Rodgers put up a season low 18.6 fantasy points, which was 3.8% of his total scoring for the year. Had Rodgers put up 1/16 (6.25%) of his total points in this game, he would have been worth 30.46 points. I still would have lost the matchup in the end, but when you get to the playoffs, you need your studs to perform. The 14.12 points he put up last week against Detroit wasn't nearly enough to help my team advance.
The secondary reason for letting go of Rodgers is to change the way in which I build my team. With Rodgers as my keeper and knowing that I was keeping him once the season is over, I have allowed every other player on my team over the last 3 years to become an interchangeable part. Looking back at my final rosters over these seasons, I always built my team around Rodgers based on upside players. These players then failed come playoff time because a great matchup fizzled out. I have made the decision to cut ties with Rodgers and build my team around RB strength and roster stability, regardless of matchups. Here are some strategies for keeper selection:
1) Keep an RB
The RB position is so top heavy right now. There are currently 11 RBs who have 160 or more standard fantasy points (12.3 ppg). The drop from 11 to 12 is 21.1 points (1.6 ppg) and the range of drop off from each player to the next from that spot is larger than that of the Top 11. If you have an opportunity to keep a player that is AT MINIMUM going to get you 12.3 ppg as your RB1, you need to keep them. QBs are going to score, and finding one in a later round is going to be way easier than locating an elite RB. Factoring in my league's scoring (6 pt passing TDs), there are 21 QBs over 200 fantasy points with only 3 RBs and no WRs over that total.
2) Slot your Keeper Correctly
Whomever you decide to keep, that player needs to be your QB1, RB1 or WR1. You can't keep a player who is currently a 2 and expect them to evolve into a 1 through the course of an offseason. You need to keep players that can be built around, not players who are part of the plan. For instance, if you have a roster where you're selecting a keeper from Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris, Peterson needs to be the keeper not because he's a cyborg and easily the best football player on the planet, but because he is a clear cut RB1 and can be built around. If you keep Richardson or Morris due to their upside, they become part of a plan rather than the focal point. Your keeper needs to be someone that will be the identity of your team. If you keep a Peterson-type player, your per round strategy changes because you can go out and fill needs at other positions earlier and more often because you know your RB position is stabilized by Peterson. If Richardson is your keeper out of this group due to his upside, you probably are going to have to spend another early round pick on an RB to shore up the position, which probably prevents you from grabbing a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green type in the early rounds. All of the RBs above are Top 10 scorers in standard formats, but the level of trust in each player is different when it comes to being an RB1.
3) Have a Plan of Action once you've identified your Keeper
I am parting ways with Aaron Rodgers after this season and I am leaning towards keeping Ray Rice. My plan of action with Rice as my keeper is to then spend my next pick on another RB to have the best RB group in the league. By releasing Rodgers back into the available player pool, I allow another owner to select him, leaving more available RB options to slide to my position on the draft board. I will be able to get an attractive, every week starting QB in Rounds 3-5 and while I might not have as good of a QB as who I'm facing on a week to week basis, that same opponent is not going to have a better RB group than me. You can win with much more regularity if you have stronger position groupings than your opponents and while that might seem like an obvious statement, look at it this way: based on Yahoo Point Projections, I was the favorite to win EVERY MATCHUP this season because Aaron Rodgers had such a higher projected score than every other player. His inflated projection made the rest of my team look better because I was the projected favorite to win. I fell short of projections 13 out of 14 weeks this season and finished 7-7 (including playoffs). I find that projections are truer when your team has more balance. Having inflated projected scores only skews what you're actually looking at and hides what should be glaring weaknesses. My RB corp at the end of this season was Ray Rice and Mikel Leshoure. That's it. I was flexing a 4th WR come playoff time because this season was a year to hoard RBs more than I've ever seen. Now imagine if I had Rice paired with a CJ Spiller or Doug Martin type...whoever my QB is, my projections are more likely to be accurate when it's all said and done because of the balance of a position group. My plan next year to build stronger position groups at the expense of THE elite QB can only be executed by allowing other owners to scoop up the presumed "elite" QBs and build my roster based on RB and WR strength.
I am currently developing a rankings system that I plan to unveil before preseason next year. This rankings system will be unlike those you find on your league's homepage or on the other fantasy football sites. My plan is to take more than just matchups and name recognition into account. I plan on changing the game for the better...I'm tired of watching the "Experts" put out the same old rankings where you can always predict who the top names are in each position group only to watch them fall into the middle of the pack. I am going to be ahead of the curve. I am going to find those players whose points we chase on the Waiver Wire the weeks after they happen. I am going to find the Danario Alexanders and Cecil Shorts before they break out on the wire. I hope you join me in this chase.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
The secondary reason for letting go of Rodgers is to change the way in which I build my team. With Rodgers as my keeper and knowing that I was keeping him once the season is over, I have allowed every other player on my team over the last 3 years to become an interchangeable part. Looking back at my final rosters over these seasons, I always built my team around Rodgers based on upside players. These players then failed come playoff time because a great matchup fizzled out. I have made the decision to cut ties with Rodgers and build my team around RB strength and roster stability, regardless of matchups. Here are some strategies for keeper selection:
1) Keep an RB
The RB position is so top heavy right now. There are currently 11 RBs who have 160 or more standard fantasy points (12.3 ppg). The drop from 11 to 12 is 21.1 points (1.6 ppg) and the range of drop off from each player to the next from that spot is larger than that of the Top 11. If you have an opportunity to keep a player that is AT MINIMUM going to get you 12.3 ppg as your RB1, you need to keep them. QBs are going to score, and finding one in a later round is going to be way easier than locating an elite RB. Factoring in my league's scoring (6 pt passing TDs), there are 21 QBs over 200 fantasy points with only 3 RBs and no WRs over that total.
2) Slot your Keeper Correctly
Whomever you decide to keep, that player needs to be your QB1, RB1 or WR1. You can't keep a player who is currently a 2 and expect them to evolve into a 1 through the course of an offseason. You need to keep players that can be built around, not players who are part of the plan. For instance, if you have a roster where you're selecting a keeper from Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris, Peterson needs to be the keeper not because he's a cyborg and easily the best football player on the planet, but because he is a clear cut RB1 and can be built around. If you keep Richardson or Morris due to their upside, they become part of a plan rather than the focal point. Your keeper needs to be someone that will be the identity of your team. If you keep a Peterson-type player, your per round strategy changes because you can go out and fill needs at other positions earlier and more often because you know your RB position is stabilized by Peterson. If Richardson is your keeper out of this group due to his upside, you probably are going to have to spend another early round pick on an RB to shore up the position, which probably prevents you from grabbing a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green type in the early rounds. All of the RBs above are Top 10 scorers in standard formats, but the level of trust in each player is different when it comes to being an RB1.
3) Have a Plan of Action once you've identified your Keeper
I am parting ways with Aaron Rodgers after this season and I am leaning towards keeping Ray Rice. My plan of action with Rice as my keeper is to then spend my next pick on another RB to have the best RB group in the league. By releasing Rodgers back into the available player pool, I allow another owner to select him, leaving more available RB options to slide to my position on the draft board. I will be able to get an attractive, every week starting QB in Rounds 3-5 and while I might not have as good of a QB as who I'm facing on a week to week basis, that same opponent is not going to have a better RB group than me. You can win with much more regularity if you have stronger position groupings than your opponents and while that might seem like an obvious statement, look at it this way: based on Yahoo Point Projections, I was the favorite to win EVERY MATCHUP this season because Aaron Rodgers had such a higher projected score than every other player. His inflated projection made the rest of my team look better because I was the projected favorite to win. I fell short of projections 13 out of 14 weeks this season and finished 7-7 (including playoffs). I find that projections are truer when your team has more balance. Having inflated projected scores only skews what you're actually looking at and hides what should be glaring weaknesses. My RB corp at the end of this season was Ray Rice and Mikel Leshoure. That's it. I was flexing a 4th WR come playoff time because this season was a year to hoard RBs more than I've ever seen. Now imagine if I had Rice paired with a CJ Spiller or Doug Martin type...whoever my QB is, my projections are more likely to be accurate when it's all said and done because of the balance of a position group. My plan next year to build stronger position groups at the expense of THE elite QB can only be executed by allowing other owners to scoop up the presumed "elite" QBs and build my roster based on RB and WR strength.
I am currently developing a rankings system that I plan to unveil before preseason next year. This rankings system will be unlike those you find on your league's homepage or on the other fantasy football sites. My plan is to take more than just matchups and name recognition into account. I plan on changing the game for the better...I'm tired of watching the "Experts" put out the same old rankings where you can always predict who the top names are in each position group only to watch them fall into the middle of the pack. I am going to be ahead of the curve. I am going to find those players whose points we chase on the Waiver Wire the weeks after they happen. I am going to find the Danario Alexanders and Cecil Shorts before they break out on the wire. I hope you join me in this chase.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6
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