Preseason QB Rankings

It's almost here!  On Thursday, September 5th, the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens will open the 2013 NFL Season in Denver against Peyton Manning and the Broncos and Fantasy Football will finally be back in our lives for 16 (17 if you are glutton for punishment) glorious weeks.  The weeks of staring a hole through the free agent list, scrutinizing one position on your roster for hours on end, and cheering for your least favorite team to pile on garbage yardage in a 38-3 blowout will finally be back and I, for one, could not be more excited about the possibilities.  I have decided to take a bold approach to my fantasy season by completely depending on my brand new Preseason and Weekly Player Rankings.  I will not be revealing my formula until the season comes to end, but what I have done is taken 4 different and important criteria into account, weighted them on importance to Fantasy play, and ranked each player based on not only when they should be drafted, but how I think they will finish the season.  I have started with QBs, and here's how it works: QBs 1-12 are those who should receive early round consideration.  I feel they will be the types of QBs that should be grabbed as early (and appropriately) as possible and who teams should be built around.  QBs 13-24 are still good to decent fantasy options, but are the types of QBs who you should draft around rather than having them as the focal point of your team.  They're the QBs who will be left if you decide to draft your skill position players in large number from the onset of your draft.  I'll give a brief explanation at the bottom for why I have certain QBs ranked higher than others, but if you are looking for a draft cheat sheet, this will be an excellent tool for you.

1. Cam Newton, Carolina
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans
3. Peyton Manning, Denver
4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
5. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco
6. Matt Ryan, Atlanta
7. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
8. Tom Brady, New England
9. Matthew Stafford, Detroit
10. Eli Manning, NY Giants
11. Jay Cutler, Chicago
12. Tony Romo, Dallas
13. Joe Flacco, Baltimore
14. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
15. Alex Smith, Kansas City
16. Robert Griffin III, Washington
17. Russell Wilson, Seattle
18. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
19. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
20. Carson Palmer, Arizona
21. Philip Rivers, San Diego
22. Matt Schaub, Houston
23. Christian Ponder, Minnesota
24. Ryan Tannehill, Miami
25. Sam Bradford, St. Louis
26. Michael Vick, Philadelphia
27. Jake Locker, Tennessee
28. Chad Henne, Jacksonville
29. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland

29 wasn't my target number, but I'm not ranking Jets, Bills or Raiders QBs because the situations for each team are way less than stellar.  Buffalo has CJ Spiller, the only TRUE fantasy relevant player on any of these teams, and when I looked at those situations, I felt none of the QBs on these teams were even close to draftable in any format.

Cam Newton is my #1 QB in 2013.  I fully believe his 3rd year will be his best, as his turnovers and passing attempts have come down, his carries remain consistent, and he becomes more and more comfortable as a true NFL passing threat.  He is hungry and sick of losing.  He will carry Carolina to their best record in his time there, which may not be good enough to make the playoffs, but will be good enough to make him the overall #1 Fantasy scoring QB.

Brees and Manning are ahead of Aaron Rodgers on my board because their situations haven't changed, while Rodgers will deal with some new personnel in his backfield and finding a new "Go-To" target.  When the Broncos added Wes Welker, I felt that the only person who benefited from that move from a Fantasy perspective was Manning and whichever RB was the unquestioned starter.  Until that is determined, Manning is about as safe a fantasy pick as their is in this year's draft.

Andrew Luck 2013 can essentially be what Matt Stafford was in 2011.  He doesn't have Megatron to throw to, but he will chuck it around 50+ times a game.  He becomes elite this year.

Tom Brady has his most questionable surrounding cast probably ever, and yet doesn't fall out of the Top 10.  Seek value in Brady this year because owners will pass on him.

Alex Smith's accuracy & care for the football + Andy Reid's ability to work magic with an offense = Fantasy Love.  Watch.  You can get Alex Smith LATE if you want to patiently fill your roster.

RGIII is as low as he is because I don't know what his status is for a full season.  Either way, I like him more than Russell Wilson, and I look for Wilson to fall off similarly to Josh Freeman's 2011.  Turnovers will go up and no one will be caught off guard by what Wilson is able to do on the field.

Does anyone know if Michael Vick has a starting job guaranteed to him in 2013?  I hear Chip Kelly has been impressed by Nick Foles and until that situation settles itself, leave Vick off your draft lists.

Let the debates begin.  Feel free to pick at what I've got here.  We'll obviously have to wait until December to see how accurate I am, but I like the criteria I judged these QBs against and this is the order in which I'll be drafting.

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