This is where things start to get a little unorthodox. I, for one, fully buy into the fact that the NFL is a passing league, but the talent at the RB position is deep again the way it was 4-5 years ago when the Fantasy Football draft strategy was to go RB-RB with your 1st 2 picks. Big name WRs continue to sneak into the late 1st, early 2nd round area of drafts and I believe this is the year where you will get burned for making that sort of move. The talent at WR is deeper than ever, and with several teams making big time moves to shore up areas of need that directly affect the passing game, I think we're prone to see some unusual names moving up the WR scoring ranks. I've ranked my Top 60 WRs, as 12 man leagues will likely need 5 WRs on their roster to fill bye weeks and make up for injuries. My league of record has done away with the kicker position in favor of a WR/TE flex spot in attempt to up the scoring league-wide, meaning 5 WRs could potentially start in any given week in this format. The position is deep, but I don't think I omitted any of the usual suspects in the process:
1) Calvin Johnson, Detroit
2) Brandon Marshall, Chicago
3) Steve Smith, Carolina
4) Victor Cruz, NY Giants
5) Julio Jones, Atlanta
6) Roddy White, Atlanta
7) Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
8) AJ Green, Cincinnati
9) Demaryius Thomas, Denver
10) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
11) Dez Bryant, Dallas
12) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
13) Randall Cobb, Green Bay
14) Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants
15) Danny Amendola, New England
16) Wes Welker, Denver
17) Andre Johnson, Houston
18) Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
19) Miles Austin, Dallas
20) Percy Harvin, Seattle
21) Marques Colston, New Orleans
22) Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
23) Eric Decker, Denver
24) James Jones, Green Bay
25) Stevie Johnson, Buffalo
26) Mike Williams, Tampa Bay
27) Anquan Boldin, San Francisco
28) Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
29) Mike Wallace, Miami
30) Pierre Garcon, Washington
31) Torrey Smith, Baltimore
32) Danario Alexander, San Diego
33) T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis
34) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Indianapolis
35) Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati
36) Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia
37) Lance Moore, New Orleans
38) Ryan Broyles, Detroit
39) Reuben Randle, NY Giants
40) Jacoby Jones, Baltimore
41) Aaron Dobson, New England
42) Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville
43) Denarius Moore, Oakland
44) Donnie Avery, Kansas City
45) Alshon Jeffery, Chicago
46) Greg Jennings, Minnesota
47) Kenny Britt, Tennessee
48) Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh
49) Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville
50) Malcom Floyd, San Diego
51) DeAndre Hopkins, Houston
52) Golden Tate, Seattle
53) Sidney Rice, Seattle
54) Tavon Austin, St. Louis
55) DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
56) Brian Hartline, Miami
57) Kendall Wright, Tennessee
58) Vincent Brown, San Diego
59) Josh Gordon, Cleveland
60) Michael Floyd, Arizona
Calvin is my #1 WR and the only WR who should be considered in the 1st round. I'm not going to deviate too far from the norm on this one. There's way more to get excited about down the list.
My #2 and #3 are going to be different then everyone else's for one simple reason: TARGETS. In a passing dominated game, WRs in a competent offense with a competent QB who are given the most opportunity to make plays will likely make the most plays. I am already predicting Top 5 Target numbers for Marshall and Smith and I feel both will be in position to have monstrous seasons. If you don't feel comfortable drafting Smith before the more traditional names like Green, White, Jones, or Fitzgerald, I don't blame you, but I urge you to look at potential targets and make an argument against what I'm trying to say.
Reggie Wayne cracks the Top 10 AND comes in ahead of AJ Green not because he's more talented. He comes in ahead of AJ because Indy's offense is led by a better QB who will pass the ball way more and will get more opportunity. Green will still put up elite numbers, but his offense has a lot more mouths to feed and a coaching staff that is going to attempt to be more creative. Wayne will also be available long after Green in most every draft.
Dwayne Bowe is finally set up to be a Top 10 WR. He has a better than average QB for the first time, an offensive guru in Andy Reid calling plays, and the type of running game that will force 8 men into the box. Buy stock in Bowe as much as you can.
Dez falls outside my Top 10 because I just don't trust Dallas with a new Offensive Coordinator and I don't trust Dez to be healthy. He is one of those guys set up for success who could easily disappoint. On the flip side, with the hype machine surrounding Bryant, I think this sets up well for Miles Austin to be a guy who slips on draft boards and gives Top 20 results.
The difference in points per game between WR20 and WR40 last season was 2.09 ppg. Don't look at the rankings as a snub against a specific player, but as a commentary on the fact that there is really little difference in per game production...
Rapid Fire:
Percy Harvin: He's a Top 20 name in my book. I've seen the Top 10 projections and I just can't buy it. I'm seemingly the only person in the universe not buying into the Seattle hype this season. They will try to get creative to get him touches, but to me, that means deviating from what made them successful last season, and deception only works in the NFL if the other team doesn't expect it. Teams will see what Harvin has to offer coming. He's a high end WR2 to me. If he's your WR1, make sure you get plenty of depth at the position.
Mike Williams: I have Williams ahead of Vincent Jackson because I feel Jackson will not be able to duplicate the numbers he put up last season. Plain and simply, I think Jackson regresses and Williams keeps a similar pace of about 1000 yards and 7-9 TDs. Jackson has never scored 10 TDs in a season and teams will be geared to stop Jackson and Doug Martin. Single coverage awaits.
Torrey Smith: Yes, he's Baltimore's best WR. It doesn't mean he's a fantasy WR1. He'll get plenty of chances to make big plays, but until his game includes moving the sticks, he's just not what I'm looking for in a high draft pick. I'll pick him to complement an already strong group, not to be my anchor.
Jacksonville's WRs - Until I know who is actually going to be the QB (and I ranked Chad Henne as their best option in my QB rankings), I can't trust either one at this point. Jacksonville looks like a team that will be drafting in the Top 3 again next May, and while both WRs came on at points last year, I wouldn't trust them as anchors of my fantasy squad.
Greg Jennings: I thought Jennings made a terrible decision to go to Minnesota this offseason and I don't see him being the premier fantasy performer he was in Green Bay. He plays in an offense with a below average fantasy QB and the best RB on the planet. Minnesota is the only team in the league that is better off handing off down 20+ points and they will lean on AP to salt away games when they are ahead. I'm not buying Jennings as anything more than a low end WR3 based on reputation. I would rather have upside players then a 6 catch, 79 yard type player, which is how I project him in that offense.
Tavon Austin: I just don't like rookie WRs in the fantasy game. I don't like his set up this year, his schedule is brutal, and he's just going to have to prove me wrong THIS YEAR to be a buyer. I'd rather have Aaron Dobson or DeAndre Hopkins in a safer situation with a better pro QB if I'm drafting any rookie WRs.
Josh Gordon - Lots of experts are high on Gordon because of his big play ability and the lack of other talent in the Cleveland receiving corp, but the fact that he is suspended for 2 games to start the season and in an offense in transition, I have no trust in this guy. He's no more than a bye week fill in for me.
Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6 and let's debate this.
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