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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Updated Preseason WR Rankings

Here are my updated WR Rankings (previous ranking in parenthesis):

1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit (1)
2. Brandon Marshall, Chicago (2)
3. Victor Cruz, NY Giants (4)
4. Julio Jones, Atlanta (5)
5. Roddy White, Atlanta (6)
6. AJ Green, Cincinnati (8)
7. Demaryius Thomas, Denver (9)
8. Steve Smith, Carolina (3)
9. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis (7)
10. Dez Bryant, Dallas (11)
11. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (10)
12. Randall Cobb, Green Bay (13)
13. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (12)
14. Danny Amendola, New England (15)
15. Andre Johnson, Houston (17)
16. Marques Colston, New Orleans (21)
17. Miles Austin, Dallas (19)
18. James Jones, Green Bay (24)
19. Wes Welker, Denver (16)
20. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay (18)
21. Pierre Garcon, Washington (30)
22. Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants (14)
23. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay (26)
24. Anquan Boldin, San Francisco (27)
25. Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay (28)
26. TY Hilton, Indianapolis (33)
27. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh (22)
28. Eric Decker, Denver (23)
29. Stevie Johnson, Buffalo (25)
30. Torrey Smith, Baltimore (31)
31. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia (55)
32. Mike Wallace, Miami (26)
33. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville (42)
34. Ryan Broyles, Detroit (38)
35. Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati (35)
36. Rueben Randle, NY Giants (39)
37. Greg Jennings, Minnesota (46)
38. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston (51)
39. Lance Moore, New Orleans (37)
40. Aaron Dobson, New England (41)
41. Sidney Rice, Seattle (53)
42. Golden Tate, Seattle (52)
43. Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville (49)
44. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Indianapolis (34)
45. Vincent Brown, San Diego (58)
46. Denarius Moore, Oakland (43)
47. Jacoby Jones, Baltimore (40)
48. Donnie Avery, Kansas City (44)
49. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago (45)
50. Kenny Britt, Tennessee (47)
51. Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh (48)
52. Tavon Austin, St. Louis (54)
53. Brian Hartline, Miami (56)
54. Kendall Wright, Tennessee (57)
55. Josh Gordon, Cleveland (59)
56. Malcom Floyd, San Diego (50)
57. Michael Floyd, Arizona (60)
58. Kenbrell Thompkins, New England (NR)
59. Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota (NR)
60. Brandon LaFell, Carolina (NR)

Risers:

Marques Colston - It became apparent to me that outside of the absolutely lethal TE Jimmy Graham, who the heck is Drew Brees supposed to throw to?  I like Colston to have a WR1 tier season.

James Jones - Jordy Nelson's knee procedure and continued Red Zone Presence brings him up 6 spots from 24 to 18.  He's not going to be a 100 yard WR most weeks, but he's a top candidate to be a multiple TD per week performer.  You'll take 5 catches, 49 yds and 2 TDs every time out, and that's a pretty typical Jones stat line.

Pierre Garcon - RGIII is going to be ready for Week 1.  If that is truly the case, Garcon, who is supposedly 100% recovered from a debilitating from a foot injury that took most of his 2012 season away, is a fringe Top 20 performer and a viable WR2 in every format.  His 9 spot jump from 30 to 21 brings great value in the 6th or 7th round.

TY Hilton - Darrius Heyward-Bey is hurt...again.  Big surprise I know, but Hilton is the lone beneficiary of this injury and he remains a legit deep threat in the high powered Indy offense.  Draft him with confidence, as you should be able to snag him later than you might think.

Injury Beneficiaries:

DeSean Jackson, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Vincent Brown

Fallers:

Steve Smith - Smith drops from 3 to 8 because the more I thought about things, as much as I like Smith to have a WR1 season, he can't be drafted ahead of some of the top names I previously had him above.  As much as I believe in Smith, I would rather see my readers take the value Smith offers in Rounds 4-5 instead of reaching out 1-2 rounds sooner.

Hakeem Nicks - The emergence of Rueben Randle, the constant injury concerns, and the lingering contract issues make me believe that when it comes time to choose your WR2, Nicks will appear to be an attractive name, but he probably can't live up to the value you think you're getting.  I urge you to allow Nicks to be drafted by someone else.  Let someone else deal with the repetitive Questionable tag that Nicks carries.

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6 and let's get ready for those drafts that haven't happened yet together.  I have 3 drafts coming up in the next 2 weeks, and I'll be drafting based on these rankings that I spent a lot of hours developing a formula for.  Look for my Weekly Positional Rankings come Week 1.


Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Updated Preseason RB Rankings

Here are my updated RB rankings (previous ranking in parenthesis):

1.  Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (1)
2. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City (2)
3. Arian Foster, Houston (3)
4. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia (4)
5. Alfred Morris, Washington (5)
6. CJ Spiller, Buffalo (6)
7. Matt Forte, Chicago (7)
8. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay (8)
9. Trent Richardson, Cleveland (9)
10. Ray Rice, Baltimore (11)
11. Stevan Ridley, New England (15)
12. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (12)
13. Chris Johnson, Tennessee (16)
14. DeMarco Murray, Dallas (14)
15. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville (10)
16. Steven Jackson, Atlanta (13)
17. David Wilson, NY Giants (19)
18. Lamar Miller, Miami (20)
19. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh (26)
20. Reggie Bush, Detroit (24)
21. Darren McFadden, Oakland (21)
22. Frank Gore, San Francisco (22)
23. Darren Sproles, New Orleans (25)
24. Shane Vereen, New England (18)
25. Daryl Richardson, St. Louis (NR)
26. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay (27)
27. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati (28)
28. Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis (29)
29. Ronnie Hillman, Denver (NR)
30. Andre Brown, NY Giants (30)
31. Bryce Brown, Philadelphia (31)
32. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina (38)
33. Chris Ivory, NY Jets (17)
34. Montee Ball, Denver (23)
35. Mikel Leshoure, Detroit (32)
36. Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona (33)
37. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati (35)
38. Bernard Pierce, Baltimore (NR)
39. Ryan Mathews, San Diego (36)
40. Vick Ballard, Indianapolis (37)
41. Fred Jackson, Buffalo (40)
42. Bilal Powell, NY Jets (NR)
43. Michael Bush, Chicago (40)
44. Knile Davis, Kansas City (NR)
45. Johnathan Franklin, Green Bay (NR)
46. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina (34)

No changes to my Top 9.  I like the order I have them in and I think the formula I used to rank them has them in the right spot.  Ray Rice moves into the Top 10 with Baltimore's recent wave of injuries.  He probably is in line for a similar workload to the last 2 seasons, even with the emergence of Bernard Pierce, who cracks my Top 40 for similar reasons.

Stevan Ridley is going to be forgotten when people start moving into the decision between a Top Tier WR or a 2nd Tier RB.  Ridley is not a 2nd tier RB people.  He has 1500 rush yds/12 TDs written all over him.  This could be the monster player that emerges right on time.  Ridley's rise to #11 and CJ2K's rise from #16 to #13 on my list makes MJD and Steven Jackson move down into the back end of the Top 20.  MJD isn't going to show anyone anything this preseason, and that worries me a touch.  Steven Jackson is going to be a great yardage back, but Atlanta is a pass-first team and White, Jones and Gonzalez are going to get theirs.  SJax is a safe bet to always be right around 10 fantasy points per week, but don't expect the 20-25 point games you can get from a guy like Ridley or CJ2K.

Le'Veon Bell becomes my top ranked rookie with Montee Ball serving as backup to Ronnie Hillman (who enters my rankings at at #29 after not being ranked in my opening set) and Giovani Bernard nursing a little injury that is preventing him from defining his share of the touches now.  Look for Bell to see a heavy workload while the Steelers search for an identity.

Chris Ivory takes the biggest tumble from #17 to #33.  Ivory can't get himself on the field and is now probably losing the lion's share of the workload he (and fantasy players) probably expected to get.  I have no interest in trying to handicap what the Jets can or will do on offense this year.

Knile Davis is the backup to Jamaal Charles in Kansas City and those who didn't know that found out in a very scary way on Monday when Charles was carted off the practice field with a foot injury.  The good news is that it does not appear to be serious and now Charles probably doesn't see another snap in the preseason.  Double victory.  The best news is that we get to see Davis with the 1st team offense and see if he can carve out a little niche in the Andy Reid system.

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6 with drafts happening daily and the start of the tregular season right around the corner.  Let's chat and see what you think!

Updated Preseason QB Rankings

Here are my updated QB Rankings (previous ranking in parenthesis):

1. Cam Newton, Carolina (1)
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans (2)
3. Peyton Manning, Denver (3)
4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (4)
5. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco (5)
6. Tom Brady, New England (8)
7. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis (7)
8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta (6)
9. Matthew Stafford, Detroit (9)
10. Eli Manning, NY Giants (10)
11. Jay Cutler, Chicago (11)
12. Tony Romo, Dallas (12)
13. Robert Griffin III, Washington (16)
14. Alex Smith, Kansas City (15)
15. Russell Wilson, Seattle (17)
16. Joe Flacco, Baltimore (13)
17. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (14)
18. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati (18)
19. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (19)
20. Carson Palmer, Arizona (20)
21. Matt Schaub, Houston (22)
22. Michael Vick, Philadelphia (26)
23. Philip Rivers, San Diego (21)
24. Christian Ponder, Minnesota (23)
25. Ryan Tannehill, Miami (24)
26. Sam Bradford, St. Louis (25)
27. Jake Locker, Tennessee (27)
28. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland (29)

Cam remains my #1 QB, and nothing changes in the Top 5.  I flipped Matt Ryan and Tom Brady's positions from my initial rankings because I'm feeling that the machine we have seen in New England over the past few years is simply going to operate with new, younger parts.  Brady is being disrespected in most fantasy circles, but let's remember how great he has been over the past 5-6 seasons and his time is not coming to an end any time soon.  The Patriot running game and unproven WR corp will force defenses to play honest and you know Belichick still wants to run up the score where possible.

Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger drop down to the high teens because they aren't in systems that will allow them to put up huge numbers without the kind of talent each team has lost.  Baltimore traded Anquan Boldin, lost Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson to injury (Pitta is probably out for the whole season), and are struggling to identify a WR to start alongside Torrey Smith.  Expect the Ravens to get as much as they can out of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce rather than opening up the offense as Flacco's monstrous offseason contract would have suggested.  Roethlisberger has lost talent in his offense, the offensive line hasn't improved, and his weapons are garden variety.  

Michael Vick jumps up 4 spots to 22 because I believe he will win the Eagles' QB job and he is a great fit for Chip Kelly's read-option offense.  He is at least rosterable in comparison to the QBs listed below him.  Similar to Vick's rise is the continuous fall of Philip Rivers.  I tweeted earlier this week that San Diego is rivaling the Jets as the least attractive fantasy team, and we are probably one injury away far from total wasteland.  No one is going to draft Rivers after his fall the last 2 years.  He is left with Ryan Mathews, Antonio Gates and Vincent Brown as his primary weapons and should have Malcom Floyd at some point after escaping what looked like an ACL tear during practice Monday.  Rivers is really only a viable option in 2 QB leagues as a QB2.

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6.  We're awfully close to the start of the season and it's time to fire up the fantasy chat.