Week 1 QB Rankings

Quarterback is probably the trickiest positional group to rank coming out of training camp.  Starting QBs no longer take extended snaps in preseason, and we really have very little gauge as to how good opposing defenses will be.  I relied on a lot of information from the 2012 season and then factored in personnel changes and scheduling to come up with these rankings.  I'll support a few choices at the end:

1) Drew Brees, New Orleans

2) Tom Brady, New England

3) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis

4) Matt Ryan, Atlanta

5) Tony Romo, Dallas

6) Peyton Manning, Denver

7) Matthew Stafford, Detroit

8) Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco

9) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

10) Robert Griffin III, Washington

11) Eli Manning, NY Giants

12) Michael Vick, Philadelphia

13) Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay

14) Alex Smith, Kansas City

15) Cam Newton, Carolina

16) Russell Wilson, Seattle

17) Joe Flacco, Baltimore

18) Brandon Weeden, Cleveland

19) Matt Schaub, Houston

20) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

21) Christian Ponder, Minnesota

22) Jay Cutler, Chicago

23) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati

24) Carson Palmer, Arizona

25) Ryan Tannehill, Miami

Drew Brees was an easy #1 overall QB to start the season.  I expect the Saints to challenge not only for the NFC South Title, but also a top seed in the conference.  Sean Payton is back as the Head Coach, and New Orleans will want to set the tone immediately against their top division rival, Atlanta.  I see 300+ yards and multiple TDs...probably not too much of a reach.

Tom Brady is #2 because he's Tom Brady.  New England will probably see great field position all afternoon with Buffalo starting 1 of 2 rookie QBs, and the pedal is always to the floor in the Patriot offense.  Big games are in store for all your favorite Patriots.

Andrew Luck is #3 simply because of his matchup.  Oakland flat out sucks and will have to cross three time zones to play this game.  Luck might still have a careless turnover or two, but big yardage totals and multiple TDs should happen, possibly by halftime.

The NFC East QBs are all Top 12 plays this week because they all play in the division.  I think Philly/Washington & NY/Dallas will be 2 of the higher combined scoring games this opening weekend, and the QB play will be the main reason why.  Start your NFC East QBs with confidence this week.

Cam Newton and Russell Wilson are back to back at 15-16 for the same reason Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton are back to back at 22-23: Horrible Opening Week Matchups.  Seattle & Carolina played last year in Charlotte, where Seattle snuck away with a 16-12 victory.  The fantasy stats for the offensive players were terrible, and I expect these two teams to do more of the same.  Carolina is an under the radar defensive unit with the upgrades they've made to their Front 7, and I expect another low scoring affair.  Chicago and Cincy are 2 of the elite defenses in the league, and while Cutler & Dalton could possibly surprise with useful fantasy stats, I full expect a 20-16 type of game with neither QB throwing for multiple TDs or crossing the 250 yard mark.  You can't really bench Newton or Wilson, but if I'm a Dalton or Cutler owner, I'm looking for a friendlier matchup to start the season.

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6 to debate.  Sit/Starts will be answered by all that ask.  This is my favorite time of year and those who reach out to me in need of advice will get an opinion!