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Friday, December 20, 2013

Week 16 QB, RB & WR Rankings

So we've finally reached Fantasy Championship week.  Kinda depressing, isn't it?  I mean we probably only get 2 more Sundays of laying around doing nothing but watching football before the wives start in with the Honey-Do lists, right?  Let's enjoy the rest of the season and win a championship or two this weekend, huh?  As has been the case all season, use the player ranked closest to #1 in the case of a Sit/Start dilemma.  You can always hit me up on Twitter for some personal touch analysis too.  Here we go:

RB

1) LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
2) Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
3) DeMarco Murray, Dallas
4) Matt Forte, Chicago
5) Frank Gore, San Francisco
6) Reggie Bush, Detroit
7) Alfred Morris, Washington
8) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
9) Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati
10) Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh
11) Eddie Lacy, Green Bay
12) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
13) Ryan Mathews, San Diego
14) Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay
15) Knowshon Moreno, Denver
16) Chris Johnson, Tennessee
17) Shane Vereen, New England
18) Zac Stacy, St. Louis
19) Andre Brown, NY Giants
20) Fred Jackson, Buffalo
21) CJ Spiller, Buffalo
22) Rashad Jennings, Oakland
23) Chris Ivory, NY Jets
24) Steven Jackson, Atlanta
25) Dennis Johnson, Houston
26) Jordan Todman, Jacksonville
27) Ray Rice, Baltimore
28) Danny Woodhead, San Diego
29) Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona
30) Donald Brown, Indianapolis
31) Lamar Miller, Miami
32) Pierre Thomas, New Orleans
33) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
34) Darren Sproles, New Orleans
35) Stevan Ridley, New England
36) Joique Bell, Detroit
37) Bryce Brown, Philadelphia
38) Montee Ball, Denver
39) Mike Tolbert, Carolina
40) Roy Helu, Washington

I can change.  Ryan Mathews is probably as close to must start as you can get outside the Top 10.  If you have him, play him.  He's on a roll.

I love the workload Bobby Rainey could potentially see.  The game means nothing between Tampa and St. Louis, we're indoors, and Rainey has been predictable depending on the matchup.  St. Louis is a plus matchup.  Use him without too much fear.

I don't trust the Buffalo offense at all, and I don't know what to make of their RB situation.  Fred Jackson is a spot higher because I trust him around the goal line.  We need TDs this week.

I don't like any of the weapons in the New Orleans-Carolina game, but I have a sneaking suspicion that DeAngelo Williams could win a championship for his owners this week.  If you're dealing with a Steven Jackson or Lamar Miller type in your flex, you may want to roll the dice on DeAngelo.

Bryce Brown will see substantial work this week against a terrible Bears run D.  I'm not betting the farm on him, but it's a plus situation in a game that could be salted away with the run.  If Philly is smart, they'll run 40 times on the Bears.

WR

1) Brandon Marshall, Chicago
2) Dez Bryant, Dallas
3) AJ Green, Cincinnati
4) Pierre Garcon, Washignton
5) Alshon Jeffery, Chicago
6) DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
7) Demaryius Thomas, Denver
8) Calvin Johnson, Detroit
9) Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
10) Keenan Allen, San Diego
11) Torrey Smith, Baltimore
12) Josh Gordon, Cleveland
13) Andre Johnson, Houston
14) Eric Decker, Denver
15) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco
16) Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
17) Julian Edelman, New England
18) TY Hilton, Indianapolis
19) Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
20) Mike Wallace, Miami
21) Kendall Wright, Tennessee
22) Anquan Boldin, San Francisco
23) Greg Jennings, Minnesota
24) Marques Colston, New Orleans
25) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
26) Danny Amendola, New England
27) Andre Caldwell, Denver
28) Rueben Randle, NY Giants
29) Roddy White, Atlanta
30) Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota
31) Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh
32) Doug Baldwin, Seattle
33) Rod Streater, Oakland
34) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
35) Steve Smith, Carolina
36) Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants
37) Riley Cooper, Philadelphia
38) James Jones, Green Bay
39) Harry Douglas, Atlanta
40) Ace Sanders, Jacksonville
41) Golden Tate, Seattle
42) Michael Floyd, Arizona
43) Brian Hartline, Miami
44) Marvin Jones, Cincinnati
45) Justin Hunter, Tennessee
46) Brandon LaFell, Carolina
47) Marquise Goodwin, Buffalo
48) Earl Bennett, Chicago
49) Andre Holmes, Oakland
50) Terrance Williams, Dallas

Chicago will feast on Philly's secondary.  This could be the highest scoring game of 2013 folks.  We are in a "If you have them, use them" scenario.  Don't get cute now.

I normally like Calvin Johnson in bounce back spots, and I feel a little bad putting him at #8, but I'm just not smelling anything huge.  70-80 and a score will suit his owners just fine.

I am higher on Greg Jennings with Matt Cassel, and he is a true #1 type target this week.  Play him over your normal middling options.

Doug Baldwin will score this week.  Book it now.  Play him if you're dealing with the Steve Smiths and Harry Douglas' of the world.

Andre Holmes is a nice little sleeper play this week in a game that could be reasonably high scoring.  I liked what I saw on Thanksgiving Day and I like him this week.

QB

1) Peyton Manning, Denver
2) Jay Cutler, Chicago
3) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
4) Philip Rivers, San Diego
5) Tony Romo, Dallas
6) Nick Foles, Philadelphia
7) Matthew Stafford, Detroit
8) Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco
9) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
10) Kirk Cousins, Washington
11) Cam Newton, Carolina
12) Drew Brees, New Orleans
13) Tom Brady, New England
14) Russell Wilson, Seattle
15) Ryan Tannehill, Miami
16) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
17) Matt Ryan, Atlanta
18) Alex Smith, Kansas City
19) Joe Flacco, Baltimore
20) Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay
21) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tennessee
22) Matt McGloin, Oakland
23) Matt Schaub, Houston
24) Matt Cassel, Minnesota
25) Matt Flynn, Green Bay

Jay Cutler will only fail in your lineup if he gets hurt.  This is where Cutler shines.  Start him with confidence.

Andy Dalton is a for real option this week against a terrible Minnesota secondary at home.  He's been awesome at home.  I only like 2 QBs more this week.

I'm high on San Fran's offense, so Colin Kaepernick is extremely safe this week in a game they should control.

Russell Wilson is great at home (he's never lost there), but I think the game sets up as a defensive struggle.  Don't get cute.

I didn't mean to rank 4 Matts in a row at the end, but if you're this far down, I like them in that order.

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6 and let's win some championships!

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Week 15 QB, RB & WR Rankings

The list is going to seem a little short this week without all the Broncos and Chargers, but after watching Thursday's game, you probably are already behind your team projection if you had anyone but Keenan Allen, Ryan Mathews or Andre Caldwell.  I didn't see any of the expert sites taking a flier on Caldwell, but instead throwing their respective kudos in the direction of Jacob Tamme.  I like Jacob Tamme, but if you took a flier on a backup TE because it was assumed he was taking over Wes Welker's job for a week, you probably deserve to be behind.

Anyways, 2nd to last rankings of the year.  It's semi-finals week for the majority of fantasy players, so let's get you to a championship game.  Start the player ranked closest to #1 in any Sit/Start problems you're having.

RB

1) LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
2) Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
3) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
4) Eddie Lacy, Green Bay
5) DeMarco Murray, Dallas
6) Matt Forte, Chicago
7) Shane Vereen, New England
8) Frank Gore, San Francisco
9) Zac Stacy, St. Louis
10) Alfred Morris, Washington
11) Ben Tate, Houston
12) Steven Jackson, Atlanta
13) Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh
14) Fred Jackson, Buffalo
15) Pierre Thomas, New Orleans
16) Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati
17) CJ Spiller, Buffalo
18) Chris Ogbonnaya, Cleveland
19) Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona
20) Reggie Bush, Detroit
21) Chris Johnson, Tennessee
22) Toby Gerhart, Minnesota (Questionable)
23) Ray Rice, Baltimore
24) Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay
25) Rashad Jennings, Oakland
26) Darren Sproles, New Orleans
27) Donald Brown, Indianapolis
28) Andre Brown, NY Giants
29) Chris Ivory, NY Jets
30) Andre Ellington, Arizona
31) BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati
32) Joique Bell, Detroit
33) Jordan Todman, Jacksonville
34) Lamar Miller, Miami
35) Daniel Thomas, Miami
36) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
37) Stevan Ridley, New England
38) Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta
39) Marcel Reece, Oakland
40) Mike Tolbert, Carolina

Rob Gronkowski's departure for the season opens up the door for the already heavily targeted Shane Vereen to see a workload like no other week of his short career.  Miami already is a terrible run stuffing unit, and the fact that Vereen is seeing double digit targets leads me to believe we have as strong a possibility as ever for an enormous game.  Rumors of Stevan Ridley's resurgence are just that.  Vereen has Belichick's trust.

I like Zac Stacy a lot this week in what smells like a trap game.  We all knew the Saints would struggle in road contests against New England and Seattle, and they did.  After an emotional prime time win against division rival Carolina last week, I can see the Saints overlooking the Rams entirely in preparation of next week's rematch.  Stacy is the beneficiary.

I'll never be this high on a Cleveland running back again, but everything lines up for Chris Ogbonnaya this week.  Terrible run defense, time share mate already ruled out, weather looking a bit treacherous.  He's a desperation play, yes,  but he's as good a desperation play as there is.

Speaking of desperation plays, I'm not a fan of any offensive weapon in the NY Jets-Carolina Panthers game.  If you have Chris Ivory and you don't have other options, how are you still alive in the playoffs?

Jordan Todman makes for an interesting play this week against fading Buffalo.  Just 3 short weeks ago, I was seeing Buffalo touted as the fantasy defense to own heading down the stretch.  They've lost 2 straight games since then and have a trap game of their own against the suddenly competitive Jacksonville Jaguars.  No MJD opens the door for everyone to see what Jordan Todman can do.  He's a Hail Mary play, but if you're in a jam, he's going to get touches.

I don't want to dive head first into Adrian Peterson's Questionable tag.  I don't think he's playing, but if he does, you play him.  Plain and simple.  AP is a robot.

WR

1) Dez Bryant, Dallas
2) DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
3) Calvin Johnson, Detroit
4) Brandon Marshall, Chicago
5) Josh Gordon, Cleveland
6) Alshon Jeffery, Chicago
7) Andre Johnson, Houston
8) Roddy White, Atlanta
9) Pierre Garcon, Washington
10) Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
11) Torrey Smith, Baltimore
12) Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
13) TY Hilton, Indianapolis
14) AJ Green, Cincinnati
15) Marques Colston, New Orleans
16) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
17) Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota
18) Riley Cooper, Philadelphia
19) Mike Wallace, Miami
20) Stevie Johnson, Buffalo
21) Harry Douglas, Atlanta
22) Golden Tate, Seattle
23) Julian Edelman, New England
24) Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville (Questionable)
25) Steve Smith, Carolina
26) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
27) Victor Cruz, NY Giants
28) Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
29) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco
30) Greg Jennings, Minnesota
31) Kendall Wright, Tennessee
32) Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh
33) Anquan Boldin, San Francisco
34) Brian Hartline, Miami
35) James Jones, Green Bay
36) Michael Floyd, Arizona
37) Nate Burleson, Detroit
38) Rod Streater, Oakland
39) Doug Baldwin, Seattle
40) Danny Amendola, New England
41) Terrance Williams, Dallas
42) Kenny Stills, New Orleans
43) Nate Washignton, Tennessee
44) Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants
45) Jacoby Jones, Baltimore
46) Jerricho Cotchery, Pittsburgh
47) Brandon LaFell, Carolina
48) Da'Rick Rogers, Indianapolis
49) Marvin Jones, Cincinnati
50) Marlon Brown, Baltimore

Calvin Johnson is not #1 for me this week because Baltimore might be the only team that can withstand free bulletin board material.  I'm expecting a tough game for Calvin this week, and while he is completely un-sittable, a small yardage, 1 TD game is what I'm feeling.  I hope you're ahead already on Monday.

Brandon Marshall, Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery are bunched at 4-6 with bad weather on the horizon, but I can't see going anywhere else this week, and I actually think all 3 get in the end zone this week.  Don't let weather screw with your decision making.

I am higher on Greg Jennings this week than I have been all season.  He has performed admirably with Matt Cassel as his QB and he draws the defense giving up the most fantasy points to WRs.  He lines up to have a good day, even though I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the Viking to own this week.

Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz and Anquan Boldin are all as far down as they've been all season on my list for the same reasons: MATCHUPS.  I think Fitz's TD streak comes to and end against Tennessee, Victor Cruz is a fantasy disappointment because his offensive teammates are terrible, not to mention he draws Seattle, and Anquan Boldin will likely be a victim of game flow, as I don't think San Fran struggles with Tampa.

You can do better than Vincent Jackson this week.  I don't want to put my playoff hopes on praying for a garbage TD.

QB

1) Drew Brees, New Orleans
2) Nick Foles, Philadelphia
3) Matt Ryan, Atlanta
4) Tony Romo, Dallas
5) Matthew Stafford, Detroit
6) Cam Newton, Carolina
7) Jay Cutler, Chicago
8) Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco
9) Tom Brady, New England
10) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
11) Kirk Cousins, Washington
12) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
13) Russell Wilson, Seattle
14) Joe Flacco, Baltimore
15) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
16) Alex Smith, Kansas City
17) Ryan Tannehill, Miami
18) Matt Cassel, Minnesota
19) Matt Flynn, Green Bay
20) Chad Henne, Jacksonville
21) Carson Palmer, Arizona
22) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tennessee
23) Case Keenum, Houston
24) Eli Manning, NY Giants
25) EJ Manuel, Buffalo

This late in the season, your QB situation should be sewn up tightly.  This ranking isn't necessarily a prediction of who will score the most fantasy points.  It is a combination of matchups and TRUST.  I think the Saints-Rams game is a trap for the Saints, but I trust Brees in all situations.  Read the list that way, and it will make total sense.

I'm also saying play Matt Ryan big time this week.  There is another team that has given up more than Falcons, and they're going to be in Atlanta this week!

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6

Friday, December 6, 2013

Week 14 QB, RB & WR Rankings

So we've made it to the Fantasy Football playoffs.  Similarly to the NFL Playoffs, you just have to get in and anything can happen.  I'm posting the rankings for this week a little earlier than usual because I'm going on a family trip this weekend, so make sure you consult your favorite injury report for any of the news that breaks today or tomorrow.  I've put players I have injury related concerns about in boldface italics.  Hit me up on Twitter if you have any Sit/Start questions, and as always, start the player ranked closest to #1 on this list.

RB

1) Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
2) Matt Forte, Chicago
3) DeMarco Murray, Dallas
4) Reggie Bush, Detroit
5) LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
6) Knowshon Moreno, Denver
7) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
8) Andre Brown, NY Giants
9) Ray Rice, Baltimore
10) Chris Johnson, Tennessee
11) CJ Spiller, Buffalo
12) Eddie Lacy, Green Bay
13) Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh
14) Alfred Morris, Washington
15) Fred Jackson, Buffalo
16) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
17) Shane Vereen, New England
18) Steven Jackson, Atlanta
19) Frank Gore, San Francisco
20) Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati
21) Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona
22) Chris Ivory, NY Jets
23) Ryan Mathews, San Diego
24) Donald Brown, Indianapolis
25) Lamar Miller, Miami
26) Pierre Thomas, New Orleans
27) Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay
28) Zac Stacy, St. Louis
29) Montee Ball, Denver
30) Joique Bell, Detroit
31) Darren Sproles, New Orleans
32) BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati
33) Danny Woodhead, San Diego
34) Andre Ellington, Arizona
35) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
36) Rashad Jennings, Oakland
37) Willis McGahee, Cleveland
38) Stevan Ridley/LeGarrette Blount, New England
39) Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta
40) Jonathan Dwyer, Pittsburgh

Ray Rice cracks my Top 10 because I feel he's still capable of exploiting plus matchups.  Minnesota has been extremely friendly to opposing RBs all season, allowing at least one 10 point performer in all but one game.  If you're still alive with Rice on your team, use him now!

Shane Vereen is the only Patriot RB I'm willing to trust and I have him as a Top 20 back this week because he's starting to see legit carries to go along with his targets in the passing game.  Cleveland is tough against the run, with only two backs going over 10 points in the last 5 games, but Vereen should see plus field time and plenty of action.  Conversely, since I never know who Belichick is going to activate, Ridley and Blount carry an equal ranking to me, so if Ridley is active, he's my #38 RB.  If Ridley is inactive again, Blount is no better than #38.

I don't like any of the RBs in the Carolina-New Orleans games, so take that for what it's worth.  I'd be surprised if you made the playoffs riding any of the inconsistent backs on these teams.

I'm down on Danny Woodhead this week despite the Giants being friendly matchup for pass catching backs.  His playing time is slipping as trust in Ryan Mathews grows.  Wood head is still an RB2 for PPR owners, but he is falling into the low end, TD-dependent flex options for standard league owners.

Even if Andre Ellington plays, I still think Mendenhall is the better Cardinal back this week.  Take it for what it's worth.

WR

1) Calvin Johnson, Detroit
2) Brandon Marshall, Chicago
3) AJ Green, Cincinnati
4) Demaryius Thomas, Denver
5) Alshon Jeffery, Chicago
6) Wes Welker, Denver
7) Torrey Smith, Baltimore
8) DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
9) Josh Gordon, Cleveland
10) Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
11) Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
12) Dez Bryant, Dallas
13) Keenan Allen, San Diego
14) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
15) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
16) Kendall Wright, Tennessee
17) Eric Decker, Denver
18) Victor Cruz, NY Giants
19) Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
20) Harry Douglas, Atlanta
21) Julian Edelman, New England
22) Pierre Garcon, Washington
23) Michael Floyd, Arizona
24) TY Hilton, Indianapolis
25) Roddy White, Atlanta
26) Mike Wallace, Miami
27) Marques Colston, New Orleans
28) Riley Cooper, Philadelphia
29) Nate Burleson, Detroit
30) Danny Amendola, New England
31) Stevie Johnson, Buffalo
32) Greg Jennings, Minnesota
33) Anquan Boldin, San Francisco
34) Golden Tate, Seattle
35) Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants
36) Steve Smith, Carolina
37) Nate Washington, Tennessee
38) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco
39) Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh
40) James Jones, Green Bay
41) Miles Austin, Dallas
42) Jacoby Jones, Baltimore
43) Doug Baldwin, Seattle
44) Rueben Randle, NY Giants
45) Brian Hartline, Miami
46) Andre Holmes, Oakland
47) Donnie Avery, Kansas City
48) Tavon Austin, St. Louis
49) Jarrett Boykin, Green Bay
50) Terrance Williams, Dallas

Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are starting to resemble Roddy White and Julio Jones from last year, with predictable home/road splits.  Marshall has 9 TDs on the season, 7 of them coming at home and only one home game (the storm game vs. Baltimore) where he hasn't scored.  Jeffery has 5 TDs on the season with 4 of them coming on the road.  The Bears host the Cowboys this week and I think the trend continues.  The home fans love to celebrate TDs with Brandon in the end zone!

Victor Cruz at 18, Hakeem Nicks at 35 & Rueben Randle at 44 in a plus matchup vs. San Diego is an indicator of their QB play in plus matchups.  If Eli had performed adequately in any of the excellent matchups he's had this year, these three would all be Top 30 WRs this week.

Mike Wallace is at 26 because I like players going against their former team.  Pittsburgh has also gotten torched plenty in the passing game recently.  Wallace carries WR2 upside this week.

The San Francisco-Seattle game isn't going to be a good study for those interested in successful passing games.  I expect this to be a low scoring slug-fest, similar to Carolina-San Fran a few weeks back.  Exercise caution in starting your 49er and Seahawk offensive weapons this week.

Andre Holmes showed some athleticism and good hands on Thanksgiving Day against Dallas.  I think he is the Raider to own and play this week.

QB

1) Drew Brees, New Orleans
2) Matthew Stafford, Detroit
3) Peyton Manning, Denver
4) Cam Newton, Carolina
5) Philip Rivers, San Diego
6) Nick Foles, Philadelphia
7) Tony Romo, Dallas
8) Josh McCown, Chicago
9) Joe Flacco, Baltimore
10) EJ Manuel, Buffalo
11) Tom Brady, New England
12) Eli Manning, NY Giants
13) Matt Ryan, Atlanta
14) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tennessee
15) Carson Palmer, Arizona
16) Alex Smith, Kansas City
17) Russell Wilson, Seattle
18) Robert Griffin III, Washington
19) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
20) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
21) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
22) Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco
23) Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay
24) Matt McGloin, Oakland
25) Ryan Tannehill, Miami

I figure Jimmy Graham will be the primary beneficiary, but coming off the embarrassment of Monday Night in Seattle, I wouldn't want to own any QB over Drew Brees this week.  In my league of record, the Brees owner is on bye this week and he'll likely miss out on a 30+ point game.

Tony Romo is ranked higher on some other sites, but I look at Romo's history against the Bears and on Monday Night and I suggest exercising some caution.  The Bears are most easily beaten via the run and with the explosive quality of Chicago's offense, I expect Dallas to try and be a dominant running team.  That being said, Romo has Dez, and the Bears have struggled against dominant #1 types this season.

Joe Flacco will not have a better matchup this season.  If you're a Russell Wilson, RGIII, or Matt Ryan owner, you may want to take the upside this week and start Flacco against a Viking defense that has allowed 9 multiple TD games to QBs and gave up 15+ points to Matt Flynn a few weeks back.

EJ Manuel is someone I'm extremely high on this week.  Tampa Bay has been terrible against opposing passers this year, and Manuel has been told to take more chances and lead the Buffalo offense.  Tampa has allowed a QB to throw for 2 or more TDs in 9 of 12 games, including 8 straight.  If you're in a 4 point TD, 1 point INT league, there is very little downside to Manuel this week.

Follow me on Twitter @BernacK6.